Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46590.03 | -557.24 | (-1.18%) | | Nasdaq | 22708.10 | -192.51 | (-0.84%) | | SP 500 | 6672.40 | -61.70 | (-0.92%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 484 | Dec 2303 | Vol 1.22 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1191 | Dec 3521 | Vol 9.82 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Communication Services, Utilities |
| | Weak: Energy, Financials, Information Technology, Materials, Consumer Staples, Industrials, Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, Health Care |
Moving the Market
--Choppy action with the major averages ultimately moving below their 50-day moving averages
--Substantial gains in Alphabet (GOOG) after Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) revealed notable position
--Several catalysts to come this week, including NVIDIA's (NVDA) earnings, September jobs report, and FOMC minutes
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Major averages close below 50-day moving averages for first time since April
17-Nov-25 16:30 ET
Dow -557.24 at 46590.03, Nasdaq -192.51 at 22708.10, S&P -61.70 at 6672.40
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market retreated today as the recent momentum unwind ultimately pressured the market lower after some choppy action this morning, with the S&P 500 (-0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%), and DJIA (-1.2%) closing below their 50-day moving averages for the first time since April.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were able to reclaim their 50-day moving averages after slipping beneath them in the late morning, though stocks faced a steeper pullback in the afternoon hours, which sent the DJIA beneath the key support level as well.
Dampened sentiment around the AI trade was once again at the core of today's retreat as NVIDIA (NVDA 186.60, -3.57, -1.88%) moved lower after Peter Thiel's fund, Thiel Macro LLC, fully divested its ~537,742-share stake in NVIDIA during the third quarter.
Chipmaker names struggled across the board as the PHLX Semiconductor Index closed with a 1.6% loss, widening its month-to-date slide to 7.2%.
Elsewhere in the information technology sector (-1.4%), Apple (AAPL 267.46, -4.95, -1.82%) moved lower after Financial Times reported that CEO Tim Cook may step down as early as next year.
Meanwhile, Dell (DELL 122.48, -11.28, -8.43%) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE 21.23, -1.60, -7.01%) finished with the widest losses in the sector after receiving downgrades from Morgan Stanley.
Today's retreat became increasingly broad-based as the session progressed, as a total of nine S&P 500 sectors finished with losses, five of which fell more than 1.0%.
The financials sector (-1.9%) ended up with the widest loss, facing pressure in nearly all of its components. American Express (AXP 341.25, -15.93, -4.46%) was a laggard after reporting its October card metrics, which saw a 0.3% increase in consumer card member loan write-offs, while U.S. Small Business Card member loans net write-offs increased 0.1%.
Digital cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global (COIN 263.95, -20.05, -7.06%) was among the worst-performing S&P 500 names as Bitcoin continued its recent slide, with today's loss wiping out its year-to-date gain.
As for today's slim batch of winners, the communication services sector (+1.1%) led for the entirety of the session as Alphabet (GOOG 285.60, +8.62, +3.11%) moved higher after Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B 503.29, -5.65, -1.11%) disclosed a new $4.9 billion position in the company.
Meanwhile, the utilities sector (+0.8%) also managed a gain as investors sought more defensive positions.
Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-2.0%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.8%) faced outsized losses as the market displayed a firm risk-off posturing today.
The VIX Volatility Index surged 14.3% to 22.67, implying a heightened sense of uncertainty in the market.
On the macro front, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson (voting FOMC member) struck a similarly cautious tone to other recent Fed speakers. Mr. Jefferson said in a speech this morning that he backed last month's 25-basis-point rate cut but emphasized that "the evolving balance of risks underscores the need to proceed slowly as we approach the neutral rate."
Just before the close, Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) said in a speech that he supports another rate cut in December for risk management reasons. The headline helped stocks finish off of their session lows and saw the market's implied odds of a December rate cut increase slightly from earlier levels. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 44.9% probability to a 25-basis point rate cut in December, little changed from Friday's 44.4% odds.
Ultimately today's action reflected a market still struggling to find its footing as leadership rotates and sentiment resets. The major averages closing beneath their 50-day averages marks a significant break from a trend that has persisted since the market began its rebound effort in April. With NVIDIA's earnings and key economic data on deck later this week, the next few sessions will go a long way in determining whether this pullback deepens or simply marks another shakeout in the broader uptrend.
U.S. Treasuries vacillated today but maintained a mostly positive bias. The 2-year note yield finished unchanged at 3.61%, and the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.13%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +17.6% YTD
- S&P 500: +13.4% YTD
- DJIA: +9.5% YTD
- Russell 2000: +5.0% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +0.8% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- November NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Actual 18.7; Briefing.com consensus: 6.1; Prior 10.7)
- Total construction spending increased 0.2% month-over-month in August (Briefing.com consensus: 0.1%) following an upwardly revised 0.2% increase (from -0.1%) in July. Total private construction was up 0.3% month-over-month, while total public construction was flat month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending was down 1.6%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that the increase in spending came solely from the residential side; unfortunately, that did not include new single-family construction activity. The strength was concentrated in new multifamily construction.
Major averages trade below 50-day moving averages
17-Nov-25 15:30 ET
Dow -590.84 at 46556.43, Nasdaq -267.11 at 22633.50, S&P -7.23 at 6726.87
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.2%), and DJIA (-1.4%) continue to chart new session lows just before the close, as breadth figures, sector strength, and mega-cap performance all sit at their worst levels of the session.
The major averages will have to embark on a serious turnaround effort to reclaim their 50-day moving averages before the close, with even more distance between the current seatings and their unchanged values. With selling pressure accelerating into the bell, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
Chipmakers under pressure as NVIDIA slips
17-Nov-25 15:00 ET
Dow -630.54 at 46516.73, Nasdaq -299.11 at 22601.50, S&P -83.78 at 6650.32
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-1.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.2%), and DJIA (-1.2%) now all sit below their 50-day moving averages as the market enters the final hour of the session.
Peter Thiel's fund, Thiel Macro LLC, fully divested its ~537,742-share stake in NVIDIA (NVDA 185.06, -5.11, -2.69%) during the third quarter. This move diverges from prevailing market expectations about persistent AI chip demand and underscores renewed valuation concerns within the AI hardware sector.
Other chipmaker names showed resilience earlier in the session but have since succumbed to increased selling pressure. The PHLX Semiconductor Index is now down 2.3%, which widens its month-to-date loss to 7.9%.
Major averges at risk of closing beneath 50-day moving averages
17-Nov-25 14:35 ET
Dow -486.48 at 46660.79, Nasdaq -244.87 at 22655.74, S&P -66.52 at 6667.58
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to chart new session lows with less than two hours remaining in today's action.
The Vix Volatility Index has surged 12.0% to 22.26, implying there are elevated worries about market volatility over the next thirty days.
Coinbase Global's (COIN 258.74, -25.26, -8.89%) loss now nears double digits as Bitcoin continues to fall. Bloomberg reports that since October highs, the total value of the cryptocurrency has plunged by roughly $600 billion.
Major averages at session lows
17-Nov-25 14:05 ET
Dow -379.24 at 46768.03, Nasdaq -181.09 at 22719.52, S&P -50.72 at 6683.38
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%), and DJIA (-0.9%) trade at their worst levels of the day, with the former two indices sitting below their 50-day moving averages.
Breadth figures have deteriorated throughout the session, with decliners now outpacing advancers by a roughly 3-to-1 clip on the NYSE and a roughly 2-to-1 margin on the Nasdaq.
Perhaps even more detrimental to the state of the major averages is the widening losses across the market's largest names. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF is down 0.9%, which pushes its month-to-date loss to 3.8%.
XPeng loses its charge as soft Q4 guidance has shares speeding in reverse (XPEV)
XPeng (XPEV) provided strong upside results for 3Q25, driven by a 149.3%?yr/yr surge in deliveries to 116,007 vehicles. However, the company’s Q4 revenue guidance of RMB?21.5?-RMB?23.0?bln and expected vehicle volumes of 125,000-132,000 fell short of the FactSet Consensus estimates, sparking a sharp selloff in the stock.
- Q3 revenue rose to RMB?20.38?bln, up 101.8%?yr/yr, driven by strong volume growth from newly launched models.
- Deliveries of 116,007 units, up 149.3%?yr/yr and 12.4%?qtr/qtr, set a new record for the company.
- Vehicle gross margin contracted qtr/qtr to 13.1% from 14.3% in Q2, although it remains up yr/yr.
- SG&A expenses increased sharply by 33%, reflecting higher marketing and franchise commission costs. As a result, XPEV remained unprofitable with a non-GAAP net loss of RMB?(150)?mln, although that compares favorably to the loss of RMB?(1.53)?bln a year earlier.
- XPEV's weak guidance reflects rising competition in China’s EV market, especially in the mass-market segment, and margin pressure from new model launches.
- XPEV recently launched its mass-market model Mona M03 and is also ramping up investment in longer-term bets like flying-car concepts and humanoid robots, which may weigh investor sentiment.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
While XPEV delivered an impressive volume breakout in Q3, the margin squeeze and low-end pivot raise concerns about profitability going forward. The strong delivery growth vindicates XPEV’s product ramp, but the contraction in vehicle margin and big SG&A increase suggest cost pressures are mounting. The softer Q4 guidance underscores the intensifying competition in China’s EV market and questions around whether XPEV can sustain this growth while improving profitability. The rollout of the Mona M03 signals XPEV’s ambition to penetrate the mass-market segment, but such a move may compress margins further unless scale and cost efficiency follow quickly. Meanwhile, the company’s ambitious investments in flying cars and humanoid robots are exciting long-term propositions, yet they also represent a drag on near-term cash flow and may dilute management focus. XPEV appears to be in a transition phase: strong growth momentum, yet not yet delivered consistent earnings, and faces a tougher competitive environment ahead. Until we see evidence of margin recovery and sustained profitability, the valuation remains linked more to execution risk than to expansion potential alone.
J&J Snack Foods Twists Up a Big EPS Beat but Q4 Categories Remain Soft; Pretzels lead the Way (JJSF)
J&J Snack Foods (JJSF) is ticking higher today after reporting its Q4 (Sep) results this morning. The company comfortably beat EPS expectations, its second consecutive double-digit beat after a string of prior misses, while revenue declined 3.9% yr/yr to $410.2 mln, in line with expectations.
- Segment trends were challenged in the quarter, with Food Service down 1.1%, Retail Supermarket down 8.1%, and Frozen Beverage down 8.3%, as the company lapped last year's strong movie-driven theater volumes.
- Pretzels were a bright spot, with Foodservice pretzels up 3.6% and retail soft pretzels up 9%, helping offset ongoing pressure in frozen novelties and handhelds.
- This strength contrasted with a 16% decline in churros as a prior limited-time offer lapped, and a 16% drop in frozen novelties, where Dogsters and Dippin' Dots Sundaes continued to grow but were outweighed by broader category softness.
- Gross profit declined to $130.2 mln from $135.5 mln and gross margin slipped to 31.7% from 31.8%, reflecting weaker Frozen Beverage mix and higher tariff costs. Operating income fell sharply to $11.5 mln from $39.8 mln, pressured by higher marketing and distribution expenses.
- Looking ahead, management highlighted several major commercial launches planned for FY26 and a robust innovation pipeline, with new products and customer wins contributing $7.6 mln in Q4. A new cost-savings program is also expected to deliver at least $20 mln in annualized operating income.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
JJSF shares have been under pressure since late 2024 as the retail environment has been challenging, further weighed down by softness in frozen novelties and theater-driven beverage volumes. The quarter reflects many of the same issues flagged by General Mills (GIS), PepsiCo's (PEP) snacks business, and Conagra (CAG),category weakness, shifting consumer behavior, and heavier investment to reignite growth. Still, the stock is ticking higher this morning, helped by back-to-back EPS beats after a run of misses, standout pretzel performance, and improved visibility into FY26 innovation and cost-savings initiatives. The setup is improving from a muted starting point, but like its peers, JJSF still needs to show that stepped-up investment can translate into steadier demand and a more sustainable growth trajectory in a challenging retail environment.
Walt Disney and YouTube deal a win-win, but also highlights rising cost pressures in streaming (DIS)
Walt Disney (DIS) reached a multi-year distribution agreement with Alphabet’s (GOOG, GOOGL) YouTube TV that restores all Disney-owned channels to the platform, ending a blackout that began October 30. While financial terms were not disclosed, the new deal includes expanded streaming integration, signaling a shift toward hybrid linear-streaming carriage models.
- DIS channels including ESPN, ABC, National Geographic, FX, Freeform, and Disney Channel have been restored, reversing a disruption caused by failed licensing negotiations over content pricing.
- The primary sticking point was DIS’s carriage rate, with reports noting that ESPN alone is priced at roughly $10/month per pay-TV subscriber -- the highest in the U.S. and multiple times higher than many general-entertainment networks.
- ESPN’s new direct-to-consumer service, Unlimited Plan, will be included for YouTube TV subscribers at no additional cost, and YouTube will gain the ability to offer select plans bundled with Disney+ and Hulu.
- YouTube TV is a major growth engine for YouTube, which reported 16% revenue growth in Q3, making loss of DIS content a material customer-retention risk.
- Surveys indicated that about 24% of YouTube TV subscribers had cancelled or were considering cancelling due to the blackout; however, YouTube stated that churn levels did not match those survey results.
- For DIS, management previously stated that FY26 guidance assumed prolonged negotiations, with two financial impacts: lost revenue from unpaid carriage during disruption and potential subscriber migration to other platforms.
- The deal protects ESPN distribution ahead of its broader streaming evolution and supports DIS’s bundling strategy, suggesting that hybrid monetization (linear + streaming access) is becoming a preferred framework.
- The agreement appears mutually beneficial: DIS preserves affiliate economics and platform scale, while YouTube retains irreplaceable sports content critical to subscriber retention and pricing power.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
DIS successfully ended a potentially damaging blackout that risked lost affiliate revenue, brand perception issues, and reduced leverage in future carriage negotiations. While undisclosed financial terms limit visibility, DIS’s willingness to include ESPN’s new DTC service at no added cost suggests strategic flexibility designed to accelerate user funnel expansion across its bundled ecosystem. This reinforces DIS’s transition away from pure linear dependency but also highlights the long-term margin pressure tied to premium sports rights and rising content acquisition costs. For YouTube TV, retaining ESPN and ABC stabilizes the platform’s core value proposition and mitigates churn, but escalating content costs may continue to pressure profitability depending on subscriber ARPU trends. Overall, this outcome reduces near-term risk and supports strategic alignment, but neither company escapes the broader structural challenges reshaping video distribution economics.
Aramark Earnings Miss the Mark — But New Business Still on the Menu (ARMK)
Aramark posted a surprising Q4 (Sep) miss on both EPS and revenue — its first EPS miss in five years — as onboarding delays for an unusually large wave of new contracts pushed revenue out of the quarter. FY26 guidance was mixed, with midpoint EPS below expectations but revenue slightly above.
Key Highlights
- Onboarding an unprecedented volume of new clients caused revenue timing shifts and drove the miss.
- FY25 gross new wins: $1.6 bln, +12% yr/yr, including the largest FSS US contract ever.
- Client retention: strong at 96.3%, with multiple business lines above that level. Net New business reached 5.6% of prior-year revenue.
- Q4 organic revenue: +14% yr/yr, driven by new wins, retention, and base volume, partly offset by onboarding timing.
- Strong results in Collegiate Hospitality, improved Healthcare performance, and solid stadium attendance.
Market Reaction: Shares rebounded off early lows during the call as management emphasized that the miss stemmed from growth-related onboarding timing, not weakening demand.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
Aramark's rare EPS miss is less troubling when viewed through the lens of the underlying driver: too much new business arriving at once. While the delay in onboarding pressured Q4 results, the magnitude of gross new wins — $1.6 bln, including record-size contracts — signals that demand for Aramark's offerings is both broad and accelerating. High retention at 96%+ reinforces that the company is winning not just new logos but also maintaining its incumbent base.
The FY26 guide wasn't stellar, but the top-line midpoint exceeding expectations is notable, especially given the strong new win pipeline. We view the miss as a timing issue rather than an erosion in fundamentals. That said, Aramark's execution in managing this unprecedented volume of onboarding will be a key near-term watch item. Given strong pipeline visibility, industry-leading retention, and momentum across Collegiate, Healthcare, and Sports, we see the long-term setup as favorable. But with the stock already rebounding on the "good problem to have" narrative, upside from here may be more measured until Aramark demonstrates consistent margin flow-through on its record new business influx.
Beazer Homes looks more constructive after upside Q4 results amid tough homebuilding market (BZH)
Beazer Homes (BZH) easily exceeded muted analyst expectations in 4Q25, benefiting from a low bar set by disappointing recent earnings results from homebuilding peers D.R. Horton (DHI), KB Home (KBH), and Lennar (LEN). The company also provided encouraging guidance for FY26, targeting meaningful gross margin expansion and solid home closings growth, sparking an initial surge higher in the stock, before cooling off after the market open.
- Net new orders declined 2.9% to 999, with orders per community per month down 10.7% to 2.0, reflecting ongoing affordability pressures.
- Homebuilding gross margin, excluding impairments and amortized interest, fell 320 bps to 17.2%, weighed down by elevated incentives and a higher share of spec home sales.
- The company expects 1Q26 adjusted gross margin to hit 16%, the low point for the year, driven by strong incentives and a high proportion of spec homes closing (up to 75%).
- BZH projects a 5-10% increase in FY26 home closings, supported by community count growth and better sales pace, particularly in the second half of the year.
- Management targets about three points of gross margin improvement by 4Q26 from rebidding savings of $10,000 per home, a favorable product mix shift, and higher margins in newer communities opened since April 2025.
- Balance sheet strength remains a priority, with nearly $540 mln in liquidity, no debt maturities until 2027, ongoing share repurchases, and a disciplined land portfolio strategy focusing on higher-return assets aligned with its energy-efficient homebuilding differentiation.
- Despite macro affordability headwinds, BZH’s low total cost of ownership propositions -- including mortgage rate buy-downs, energy efficiency, and insurance savings -- position it well for market share gains.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
BZH’s 4Q25 results and 2026 outlook demonstrate resilience in a tough macro environment, balancing short-term margin compression from incentives with strategic cost savings and product improvements expected to drive sequential recovery. The significant but manageable decline in net orders alongside improved closings reflects a cautious buyer base amid persistent affordability challenges. The company’s differentiated approach to energy-efficient homes and total ownership costs offers a competitive advantage. While initial stock gains post-earnings faded, results mitigate downside risk and establish a framework for margin and volume growth in 2026, subject to broader market conditions.
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