Hurricane forecasting: Humans are still King, but AI is catching up?! Here’s a very simple & limited comparison 5 days out of the best and worst forecasts for #Melissa on left and the season on right. Not to pile on the GFS/ American model, but it had a bad season overall... 1/

— Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T16:50:53.570Z

On Melissa GFS 5-day error was 4X that of Google Deep Mind AI, our best model. For the season Google AI track was 2X better than GFS. @NHC_Atlantic knocked it out of the park again, using all the available info, and winning the season. It’s why we trust NHC, these folks are the best 2/

— Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T16:51:35.320Z

During the core months of hurricane season (Aug-Sep-Oct), fairly persistent anomalous "troughiness" was centered over the southeast U.S., which resulted in anomalous counter-clockwise steering flow around it. This helps explain why hurricanes generally turned northward well before reaching the U.S.

— Brian McNoldy (@bmcnoldy.bsky.social) 2025-11-18T20:36:45.286Z