Extreme Temperature Diary- Wednesday November 19th, 2025/Main Topic: New Study-Heatwaves Will Not Revert Towards Preindustrial Conditions For At Least 1,000 years After Emissions Target Reached – Guy On Climate
Dear Diary. Let’s not be doomists here. Even though according to the new study that I’m presenting today, which is right up my alley landing squarely in our ‘how fast how bad bucket,’ suggests that the climate is so broken that ‘normal’ heatwave patterns won’t occur for 1000 years no matter what we do, we should still fight to keep carbon levels in the atmosphere as low as possible. After all, heatwaves will be even worse should we miss United Nation’s targets.
Heatwaves might become so bad that portions of the Middle East and Southern Asia might become uninhabitable later this century should we fail to act, as I’ve stated the last few years.
Here are more details from the Guardian:
New study suggests heatwaves will not revert back towards preindustrial conditions for at least 1,000 years after emissions target reached.
www.theguardian.com/environment/... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-11-17T11:03:16.924Z
‘Damned if we do but completely stuffed if we don’t’: heatwaves will worsen longer net zero is delayed | Climate crisis | The Guardian
Climate crisis
‘Damned if we do but completely stuffed if we don’t’: heatwaves will worsen longer net zero is delayedA new study suggests heatwaves will not revert back towards preindustrial conditions for at least 1,000 years after emissions target reached Australian scientists say heatwaves will be hotter, longer and more frequent the later net zero is reached globally. Photograph: Lisa Maree Williams/Getty Images
Donna Lu Assistant editor, Australian scientists say heatwaves will be hotter, longer and more frequent the later net zero is reached globally.
‘Damned if we do but completely stuffed if we don’t’: heatwaves will worsen longer net zero is delayed
A new study suggests heatwaves will not revert back towards preindustrial conditions for at least 1,000 years after emissions target reached
Heatwaves will become hotter, longer and more frequent the later net zero emissions is reached globally, new research suggests.
Scientists at the ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather and Australia’s national science agency, the CSIRO, simulated how heatwaves would respond over the next 1,000 years, examining the differences for each five-year delay in reaching net zero between 2030 and 2060.
The research, published in the journal Environmental Research Climate, found that for countries near the equator, delaying net zero until 2050 would result in heatwave events that break current historical records at least once yearly.
 The study also suggests that heatwaves will not revert back towards preindustrial conditions for at least a millennium after net zero is reached, which “critically challenges the general belief that conditions after net zero will begin to improve for near future generations”.
“The thing with net zero and heat waves is: we’re damned if we do, but we’re completely stuffed if we don’t,” the study’s lead author, Prof Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick of the Australian National University, said. “We’re already locked into a certain amount of warming.”
Sign up to get climate and environment editor Adam Morton’s Clear Air column as a free newsletter
Stabilising global heating at 1.5C or 2C would still result in impacts “that we haven’t yet experienced, including worse heatwaves”, she said. “The thing is, if we delay net zero – up to 30 years and even longer – those impacts are only going to get worse. We’re already locked into some, but the longer we leave net zero, the worse it’s going to be.”
“[In Australia] you have the Coalition basically saying: net zero is useless, it’s pointless, it’s not worth it, it’s going to cost us too much money,” she said. “Well, it’s going to cost us even more if we don’t even get to net zero by 2050.”
“The silver lining to this sort of study, if there is one, is that we have time to adapt … so when these heatwaves occur, we’re as prepared for them as possible,” she said. “We know the impacts of heatwaves – there’s so much understanding about the health impacts, ecosystem impacts, impacts on financial services.
“What those adaptation strategies look like – that remains to be seen,” she said. “Those conversations can start now.”
The modelling was done using Australia’s global climate simulator, known as Access, and defined a heatwave as at least three consecutive days where temperatures are above the 90th percentile for maximum temperature.
Prof David Karoly, a decorated climate change scientist and councillor with the Climate Council, who was not involved in the research, said the findings were not surprising.
“There is a clear relationship between the cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and global mean temperatures,” he said.
Karoly added that the study’s results were interesting but one caveat was that there were uncertainties in the modelling relating to potentially important processes such as rainfall changes, because the geographical representation of Australia and other regions in the Access model was of a lower resolution than for other climate simulators.
Explore more on these topics:
More on this story Sussan Ley, it’s time we took a look at your climate policy report card. You appear to have learned nothing3h ago …comments ‘Sad day for publicly funded science’: up to 350 more jobs to go at CSIRO19m ago South Korean decision to close all coal-fired power plants by 2040 sounds alarm for Australian exports19h ago Severe thunderstorm risk for northern and eastern Australia including Sydney, Brisbane and Canberra3d ago Stunning aurora australis lights up sky above New Zealand and Australia after ‘cannibal’ solar storm5d ago BoM move to axe free flood warning tool has ‘potentially deadly consequences’, Queensland councils say8 Nov 2025 Southern lights seen across Australia amid severe solar storm6d ago E-waste not want not: how to recycle old phones and computers2d ago …comments Factchecking five Coalition claims about net zero, from power prices to the $9tn cost3d ago Cost of BoM’s website revamp revealed after deluge of public criticism31 Oct 2025
Here are some “ET’s” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports
While the weather world is focused on the expected big pattern shift and possible Arctic Outbreak after the Thanksgiving’s Turkey 🦃 deep fry, the nation’s middle is frying right now! Summery today at 25 degrees above normal, and 40 record highs!Dozens more through week’s end… (records via CoolWx) — Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2025-11-18T22:59:29.775Z
Keeping promises on renewables, energy efficiency and methane ‘would avoid nearly 1C of global heating’
www.theguardian.com/environment/... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T06:35:17.660Z
\
It’s almost like something dramatically changed after the Industrial Revolution! (figure via Ed Hawkins) — Zeke Hausfather (@hausfath.bsky.social) 2025-11-18T16:53:56.000Z
Print version of my new commentary ("Bill Gates’s climate comments are a dangerous distraction") on #COP30, Bill Gates and more, in the latest issue of @nature.com: www.nature.com/articles/d41... — Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T18:36:54.016Z
Many people don't realise how climate change is already - not in the future - affecting our lives. And it's doing so in ways that, once our eyes are opened, we can notice!
For example, food. h/t @climatecentral.org — Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2025-11-19T17:52:34.169Z
COP30: A visual guide eciu.net/analysis/inf... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T11:06:47.673Z
In our latest episode of the Shocked podcast, I do a temperature check with @katharinehayhoe.com.
Earth is running a 2°F fever, and we're on track for a 5°F fever in the coming decades. 🤒
Listen 🎧
lnk.to/shockedpodca... — Amy Harder (@amyaharder.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T16:12:26.745Z
Global warming is like a human fever, @katharinehayhoe.com says www.axios.com/2025/11/19/g... via @axios.com — Amy Harder (@amyaharder.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T16:01:05.818Z
Nearly every panel I spoke on this year ended with the same question: "What gives you hope?"
My friends, that question expired years ago. (If you need receipts, my book Saving Us is literally a 300-page answer.)
The real question is: How are you PRACTICING hope?
Because Greta is right .. — Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2025-11-19T15:49:23.480Z
Looking ahead, once we get past a week of very warm weather through Thanksgiving, we are going Cold Turkey next weekend!
Models advertise a deep #freeze all the way south to #Florida! 1/ — Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T17:59:40.189Z
Hurricane forecasting: Humans are still King, but AI is catching up?!
Here’s a very simple & limited comparison 5 days out of the best and worst forecasts for #Melissa on left and the season on right.
Not to pile on the GFS/ American model, but it had a bad season overall... 1/ — Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T16:50:53.570Z
On Melissa GFS 5-day error was 4X that of Google Deep Mind AI, our best model.
For the season Google AI track was 2X better than GFS.
@NHC_Atlantic knocked it out of the park again, using all the available info, and winning the season. It’s why we trust NHC, these folks are the best 2/ — Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T16:51:35.320Z
During the core months of hurricane season (Aug-Sep-Oct), fairly persistent anomalous "troughiness" was centered over the southeast U.S., which resulted in anomalous counter-clockwise steering flow around it.
This helps explain why hurricanes generally turned northward well before reaching the U.S. — Brian McNoldy (@bmcnoldy.bsky.social) 2025-11-18T20:36:45.286Z
Big Polar Plunge across Europe as the jet stream takes a nose dive! Temps 10-20C below normal! Lots of snow in the mountains!! — Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T06:54:18.914Z
The decision by #SouthKorea to shut its coal fired power stations was a shock only to the naive & foolish.
This has been looming on the horizon since the 1970s.
#climate #Auspol
www.abc.net.au/news/2025-11... — (@neil1808.bsky.social) 2025-11-18T11:36:25.265Z
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) says solar the only technology where current investment levels are approaching the annual average needed through to 2030 to align with 1.5 C pathway.
www.pv-magazine.com/2025/11/18/i... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T10:55:15.705Z
Floating offshore wind farm to power 70,000 homes and support 1,000 jobs.
www.scotsman.com/business/tax... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T10:50:05.060Z
Trump loans Constellation Energy Corp $1 billion to restart nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island - where catastrophic accident led to partial reactor melt-down in 1979 ...
edition.cnn.com/2025/11/18/b... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T10:44:59.112Z
Nuclear morality.
Reprocessed uranium from French EDF nuclear left Dunkirk to be enriched at specialised Russian plant run by the country’s nuclear energy group Rosatom, before being returned to France for use in civil reactors.
www.mediapart.fr/en/journal/e... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T10:41:15.966Z
Nuclear levy will increase UK energy bills from December - a mandatory charge for both homes and businesses.
startups.co.uk/news/nuclear... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T10:27:43.671Z
Sodium-ion battery storage for ultra-low temperatures www.pv-magazine.com/2025/11/18/s... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T11:01:12.820Z
www.theguardian.com/environment/... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T10:56:24.783Z
How to get Ireland to take #Climate Action:
Point out the Brits are beating us hands down.
(Emissions per capita world rankings) — Philip Boucher-Hayes (@philipb-h.bsky.social) 2025-11-18T21:39:17.799Z
www.theguardian.com/environment/... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T11:12:04.631Z
Print version of my new commentary ("Bill Gates’s climate comments are a dangerous distraction") on #COP30, Bill Gates and more, in the latest issue of @nature.com: www.nature.com/articles/d41... — Michael E. Mann (@michaelemann.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T18:36:54.016Z
Michael Lecchino helps other youth see their climate and actions as part of a larger whole. The business student at Concordia University organized recycling COVID-19 masks and kids art. @climatedesk.org @katharinehayhoe.com @coveringclimatenow.org www.nationalobserver.com/2025/11/17/o... — Patty Lane (@pattylane.bsky.social) 2025-11-18T21:12:50.247Z
Giving Jane the final word here. She got it! — Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2025-11-19T16:02:58.394Z
|
