Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46138.56 | +47.03 | (0.10%) | | Nasdaq | 22564.25 | +131.38 | (0.59%) | | SP 500 | 6642.15 | +24.84 | (0.38%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1045 | Dec 1706 | Vol 1.14 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 1741 | Dec 2677 | Vol 8.49 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Communication Services, Information Technology, Industrials, Materials, Financials |
| | Weak: Energy, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Utilities, Health Care, |
Moving the Market
--Strength in chipmaker names ahead of NVIDIA's (NVDA) earnings report
--Alphabet (GOOG) trades to a new all-time high
--December rate-cut odds slip as BLS confirms it will not release the October Employment Situation Report, October FOMC minutes show mixed opinions regarding December rate cut
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AI rebound outweighs dampened rate-cut expectations
19-Nov-25 16:25 ET
Dow +47.03 at 46138.56, Nasdaq +131.38 at 22564.25, S&P +24.84 at 6642.15
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market saw some choppy action today in reaction to an abundance of catalysts, though a rebound in sentiment across tech names ahead of NVIDIA's (NVDA 186.52, +5.16, +2.85%) earnings ultimately saw the S&P 500 (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), and DJIA (+0.1%) close higher.
Mega-cap and tech names got off to a solid start as Alphabet (GOOG 292.99, +8.03, +2.82%) traded to a new record high, pushing the communication services sector (+0.7%) to an early gain that exceeded 3.0%.
Concurrently, the information technology sector (+0.9%) held a gain just past 2.0% that was supported by a nearly 3.0% surge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+1.8%) ahead of NVIDIA's earnings. Broadcom (AVGO 354.42, +13.92, +4.09%) was a standout throughout the session.
While there were some early pockets of weakness in the broader market that kept the DJIA near its baseline, the market took a clear downward turn just after midday as the BLS announced it will not release the October Employment Situation Report. The BLS also confirmed that the September JOLTS report will not be published, and the October JOLTS report will be released Tuesday, December 9. Meanwhile, the November Employment Situation Report will be published Tuesday, December 16.
Expectations for a December rate cut fell sharply as labor-market concerns have been the main catalyst behind the Fed's recent easing. The decision to withhold or delay key data releases is seen as further clouding the already murky labor market picture.
Following the announcement, the CME FedWatch tool lowered its odds for a 25-basis point rate cut to around 38%, down from 50.1% yesterday.
Stocks slipped in response, with the major averages collectively moving into negative territory for the day. At one point, the communication services sector was the only S&P 500 sector to hold a gain, as even the information technology sector ceded the entirety of its 2.0% advance.
The market hit session lows around 12:45 PM ET before rebounding. Stocks traded in a choppy fashion before hitting another roadblock at 2:00 PM ET, this time in the form of the October FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes did not reveal any particularly new opinions from Fed officials regarding a December cut. Some participants see that a December rate cut could be the appropriate course of action, some participants believe keeping the target rate unchanged for the rest of the year is likely most appropriate, and nearly all expressed a need to proceed with caution as both sides of the Fed's dual mandate come under pressure.
Nonetheless, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated another decline in the likelihood of a December rate cut, which fell to 31.6% this afternoon. At the moment, a 33.5% probability is attached to the Fed cutting again in December.
Stocks hit another trough before mounting a turnaround effort at 3:00 PM ET. This would prove to be the last large swing of the day and helped the S&P 500 snap a four-day losing streak.
NVIDIA helped pace the gains, trading toward session highs late in the afternoon as sentiment improved ahead of its earnings release. The information technology (+0.9%) and communication services (+0.7%) sectors finished at the top of a leaderboard that ultimately saw six sectors close higher.
The consumer discretionary sector (+0.1%) eked out a gain as Amazon (AMZN 222.69, +0.14, +0.06%) closed slightly higher, while Lowe's (LOW 228.40, +8.83, +4.02%) added support following an upbeat earnings report.
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF closed with a 0.8% gain, its best finish since last Monday. Today's session was the first in which the major averages closed higher across the board since last Monday as well, with a rebound in confidence across semiconductor and mega-cap names playing a pivotal role in restoring momentum.
All eyes now turn to NVIDIA's earnings release. If the world's largest company delivers a strong report and, more importantly, issues strong guidance, the market could be poised for a stronger rebound from its recent slide.
U.S. Treasuries had a quiet showing on Wednesday, resulting in slim losses across the curve. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.60%, and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.13%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +16.9% YTD
- S&P 500: +12.9% YTD
- DJIA: +8.5% YTD
- Russell 2000: +5.3% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +1.2% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- MBA Mortgage Applications Index -5.2% wk/wk, with refinance applications down 7% and purchase applications down 2%
- The trade deficit was $59.6 billion in August (Briefing.com consensus: -$61.0 billion) versus an upwardly revised $78.2 billion (from $78.3 billion) in July. That was the result of exports being $0.2 billion more than July exports and imports being $18.4 billion less than July imports.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it will factor favorably into the Q3 GDP report, given the positive contribution from the net export component.
NVIDIA moves higher ahead of earnings
19-Nov-25 15:25 ET
Dow +38.95 at 46130.48, Nasdaq +162.19 at 22595.06, S&P +28.95 at 6646.26
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.7%), and DJIA (+0.1%) are on an upswing as the market enters the final half hour of the session.
The information technology sector (+1.3%) widens its gain back across the 1.0% mark as NVIDIA (NVDA 186.90, +5.54, +3.05%) moves towards session highs ahead of its earnings release after the close.
NVIDIA has posted 11 straight beats on EPS and revenue, so the bar is high—but sentiment hinges far more on Q4 (Jan) expectations and the broader AI spending trajectory. Investors will watch closely for signs that data center demand is either stabilizing or accelerating following last quarter's modest upside and muted guide.
Commentary around Blackwell momentum, data center linearity, and H20 visibility will set the tone for AI infrastructure stocks, which have been searching for conviction after a sharp pullback. NVDA's long-term message remains exceptionally bullish—framing AI as a multitrillion-dollar opportunity through decade's end—but near-term execution and guidance will determine whether the stock reclaims leadership or extends its consolidation.
Rate cut odds weigh on mega-cap strength
19-Nov-25 15:05 ET
Dow -42.42 at 46049.11, Nasdaq +101.70 at 22534.57, S&P +16.17 at 6633.48
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%), and DJIA (-0.1%) continue to oscillate around their flatlines as deflated odds for a December rate cut weigh against the best day for mega-cap stocks since last Monday.
The information technology (+0.6%) and communication services (+0.7%) pace the gains, helping the major averages recover from a pullback that followed the release of the October FOMC meeting minutes.
The minutes further dampened the market's expectations for another rate cut in December, with the CME FedWatch tool now assigning a 31.6% probability to a 25-basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting, down from 50.1% yesterday. Those odds had previously dropped to around 38% earlier in the session after the BLS confirmed it will not release the October Employment Situation Report.
Stocks slip after Fed Minutes flag caution, mixed views on rate cuts
19-Nov-25 14:30 ET
Dow -84.27 at 46007.26, Nasdaq +64.51 at 22497.38, S&P +7.26 at 6624.57
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages faded off their prior levels after the FOMC minutes showed that many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year. The S&P 500 (+0.11%) is up about 7 points.
Participants noted that inflation had ticked higher and remained somewhat elevated, while economic activity continued to grow at a moderate pace. Job gains slowed and unemployment edged up, raising concerns about rising downside risks to the labor market. With that backdrop, many officials favored cutting rates, some were on the fence, and several opposed a reduction.
Further, participants urged a deliberate approach, noting that limited data and two-sided risks called for caution. Most agreed that shifting toward a more neutral stance would help prevent a sharper labor-market downturn, and with tariff effects on inflation appearing modest, many viewed some easing as appropriate to counter employment risks. At the same time, the FOMC warned that additional cuts, amid still-elevated inflation and only slow labor-market cooling, could risk entrenching inflation or signal wavering commitment to the 2 percent goal.
Overall, participants stressed the need to balance risks carefully and maintain well-anchored inflation expectations.
Treasury yields are narrowly higher compared to pre-minutes, with the yield on the 10-yr up less than one basis point at 4.117%.
Nasdaq edges higher as gold climbs on pre-Fed risk aversion and a firmer dollar
19-Nov-25 13:55 ET
Dow +29.89 at 46121.42, Nasdaq +89.69 at 22522.56, S&P +20.65 at 6637.96
[BRIEFING.COM] With about two hours to go the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.40%) clings to a narrow lead among the majors, up almost 90 points.
Gold futures settled $16.30 higher (+0.4%) at $4,082.80/oz, as investors adopted a risk-off stance ahead of the Fed minutes and delayed U.S. jobs data, boosting safe-haven demand despite a firm dollar. Traders also leaned into gold on lingering expectations for a December rate cut, which supports non-yielding assets.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up about +0.5% to $100.10.
TJX Beat-and-Raise Q3 Highlights Strength of Value Proposition Amid Macro Headwinds (TJX)
TJX (TJX) is relatively flat after reporting its Q3 (Oct) results this morning. The company's off-price model continues to resonate with consumers and perform well despite macro uncertainty and a competitive retail environment. It beat expectations on the top and bottom line, marking its fifteenth consecutive EPS beat, while revenue increased 7.5% yr/yr to $15.18 bln, its strongest growth in seven quarters. TJX also raised FY26 EPS and revenue guidance above expectations to $4.63-4.66 and $59.7-59.9 bln, respectively, with comps now expected to be +4% (from +3%).
- Comp sales accelerated to +5%, above prior guidance, driven by a combination of higher traffic and bigger baskets, with both apparel and home categories posting strong increases.
- TJX Canada led with comps +8% (+9% in Q2), followed by Marmaxx +6% (+3% in Q2), HomeGoods +5% (+5% in Q2), and International +3% (+5% in Q2), with broad-based strength across income demographics reflecting the appeal of its value offerings.
- Importantly, its mitigation efforts fully offset tariff pressure, helping boost pre-tax margin 40 bps to 12.7% and expand gross margin 100 bps yr/yr, also aided by stronger merchandise margin and lower freight costs.
- The holiday outlook was notably positive, with TJX positioning its banners as top destinations for value-focused shoppers, supported by strong gift availability, fresh assortments flowing multiple times per week, and digital-led holiday marketing campaigns.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
TJX continues to execute at a high level, and its off-price value proposition is clearly resonating with consumers in a still-challenging macro environment. It has consistently beat expectations on the bottom line, with healthy traffic, accelerating comps, and continued margin expansion underscoring the strength of its model. The muted reaction likely reflects the stock's proximity to all-time highs, TJX isn't an ultra-growth story, but it remains a reliable operator in discretionary retail, with value-driven traffic supporting steady share gains. Management was also bullish on the upcoming holiday season, citing strong gift availability and frequent new assortments, and TJX appears well positioned to capture demand. Longer term, its global footprint, including its joint venture in Mexico, investment in the Middle East, and planned entry into Spain in spring 2026, provides additional runway for growth.
Williams-Sonoma furnishes solid results amid stiff headwinds, reflecting brand name strength (WSM)
Williams-Sonoma (WSM) delivered solid results for Q3, highlighted by another EPS beat - the company's twelfth consecutive quarter of EPS upside - despite headwinds from tariffs and a challenging macro environment. The company also reaffirmed FY26 revenue guidance and raised operating margin expectations, showcasing resilience in a promotional retail climate.
- The 4.0% yr/yr comparable brand revenue growth reflected positive comps across all major brands: Williams-Sonoma (+7.3%), West Elm (+3.3%), and Pottery Barn (+1.3%), with accelerating comp momentum.
- Gross margin expanded by 70 bps to 46.1%, helped by higher merchandise margins, supply chain efficiencies, and an effective six-point tariff mitigation plan.
- WSM reaffirmed FY26 revenue guidance of $7.75-$7.98 bln and raised operating margin guidance to 17.8-18.1%, factoring in ongoing tariff impacts.
- The company’s competitive edge comes from its multi-brand portfolio with broad category exposure, digital-first retail channels, strength in customer service and innovation, and a resilient balance sheet.
- A new $1.0 bln stock repurchase authorization signals confidence and shareholder return commitment.
- Despite weak housing market conditions and macro uncertainties, WSM is offsetting these challenges through innovation, enhanced retail experiences, category expansion in furniture and emerging brands, and strong B2B growth.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
WSM continues to outperform peers like RH (RH) by leveraging its diversified brand portfolio, operational excellence, and digitally integrated customer experiences. Strong margin expansion and consistent EPS beats amid tariff pressures highlight its robust business model. The company’s focus on innovation, full-price selling, and customer service is enabling it to navigate a difficult retail environment, with solid guidance signaling confidence. While housing market softness remains a risk, WSM’s strategic agility and scale position it well for sustained growth and market share gains.
Wix.com Drops as Base44 Costs Overshadow Strong Q3 Results and Raised Outlook (WIX)
Wix.com (WIX) is under pressure today after reporting its Q3 results this morning. The company beat EPS expectations, while revenue increased 13.6% yr/yr to $505.2 mln, which was in line with expectations. Wix also raised the bottom end of its FY25 revenue outlook to $1.99-2.00 bln (from $1.975-2.00 bln) and lifted its FY25 bookings guidance to $2.06-2.078 bln (from $2.04-2.075 bln), reflecting strong outperformance from its recent acquisition, Base44.
- Total bookings increased 14% yr/yr to $515 mln, driven by robust new user cohorts, healthy renewal activity from existing users, and better-than-expected contribution from Base44.
- Core business fundamentals were solid: Creative Subscriptions revenue grew 12% yr/yr to $356.2 mln, Business Solutions revenue rose 18% yr/yr to $149 mln, and Partners revenue jumped 24% yr/yr to $192.1 mln.
- User behavior remained strong, with higher conversion into advanced subscriptions, greater adoption of business apps, and more users opting for longer-duration plans. Organic traffic also improved.
- Base44 scaled rapidly to 2+ mln users, is adding 1,000+ new paying subscribers daily, and now holds 10%+ share in AI app-building, with ARR expected to reach $50 mln+ by year-end.
- That said, weighing on shares is the near-term impact of Base44, with costs hitting now while bookings build over time. Management noted this mismatch creates a headwind to free cash flow and operating profit, with gross margin dipping to 69% on higher AI compute costs and sales & marketing up 23% sequentially from accelerated Base44 spend.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
Despite the EPS beat and raised outlook, the stock is under heavy pressure today. The quarter was fundamentally solid, with broad-based growth across Wix's core categories. Base44 was the clear highlight, and management remains highly enthusiastic about its long-term potential and early traction. However, the flip side is that Base44 is creating near-term headwinds, as elevated marketing, onboarding, and AI compute costs are hitting the P&L immediately, while revenue from mostly monthly subscribers builds more gradually. This is weighing on margins and free cash flow in the short run. Additionally, while non-GAAP EPS beat, GAAP EPS swung to a loss of $(0.01) versus $0.46 in the year-ago period, adding to investor caution. That said, strong fundamentals across the core Wix platform and a bullish outlook for Base44 point to a favorable long-term setup, but near-term cost pressures are hard to ignore.
Target Hits the Mark on Q3 Earnings, But Holiday Outlook Misses the Bullseye (TGT)
Target is trading modestly lower despite reporting upside Q3 (Oct) results this morning. Notably, the call was led by COO Michael Fiddelke, who will step into the CEO role on Feb. 1, 2026. When his appointment was first announced in August, investors were disappointed that Target opted for a 20+ year insider rather than an external change agent. However, today's call helped reassure investors, supported by early visibility into a ramp in cap-ex next year.
Key Highlights
- Q3 delivered a solid EPS beat, extending momentum from Q2. Revenue: $25.27 bln, down 1.6% yr/yr was in line, but marked a fourth straight yr/yr decline. FY26 adjusted EPS guide lowered to $7.00-8.00 from $7.00-9.00, despite Q3 upside, which implies a tougher Q4 holiday.
- Q3 comps: -2.7% (in-store -3.8%, digital +2.4%) vs -1.9% in Q2.
- Adjusted operating margin: 4.4% vs 4.6% last year, pressured by markdowns but helped by ad growth, reduced shrink, and efficiencies. Target plans a 25% increase in cap-ex next year for store remodels, experience upgrades, and digital/tech improvements, which could pressure margins near term.
Category & Consumer Trends
- Discretionary categories (home, apparel) remained soft, while food, essentials, beauty, and Fun 101 digital saw growth.
- Strongest performance came from seasonal events like back-to-school and Halloween.
- Consumers remain value-focused, stretching budgets amid 3-yr low sentiment driven by affordability, jobs, and tariffs.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
Investors appear broadly relieved by Target's Q3 performance and outlook. While full-year guidance tightening was a disappointment, it could have been meaningfully worse given ongoing consumer caution and discretionary softness. More importantly, incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke struck the right tone on the call, signaling a readiness to invest aggressively in stores, remodels, and digital capabilities. That investment cycle may compress margins in 2025, but it's the type of forward-looking spending Target needs to reignite growth after several quarters of sluggish comps.
The consumer backdrop remains fragile—sentiment is at a 3-year low—and the holiday Q4 looks tough. But with operational discipline, lower shrink, and targeted cap-ex, Target is at least moving proactively rather than defensively. Overall, while TGT's story still has challenges, today's report reduces downside fears and provides early confidence that the upcoming CEO transition will be steadier than initially expected.
Lowe's outshines Home Depot again in Q3, beating EPS expectations with resilient Pro business (LOW)
Lowe’s (LOW) posted a Q3 EPS beat, contrasting with Home Depot’s (HD) miss from the day prior. While HD’s earnings miss and soft guidance bolstered cautious expectations, LOW’s standout results and relatively resilient outlook are triggering strong gains in the stock.
- LOW’s Q3 adjusted EPS of $3.06 topped consensus, up 6% yr/yr, with total sales reaching $20.8 bln and comparable sales rising 0.4% yr/yr, slightly above HD’s +0.2%, despite an approximate 100 bps hurricane headwind.
- Like HD, LOW trimmed its FY26 EPS guide to approximately $12.25, marginally below the prior $12.20-$12.45 range, citing soft DIY demand for large projects, ongoing macro uncertainty, and a quieter storm season.
- LOW nudged its FY26 revenue outlook higher ($86.0 bln vs prior $84.5-$85.5 bln) on the back of its strategic Foundation Building Materials (FBM) acquisition, though the FY26 comp guide was eased to flat from flat to +1%.
- The Pro business grew for the quarter, aided by the FBM deal closing in October, which expands portfolio, fulfillment reach, and cross-selling potential. Pro customer confidence and spending remain stable, with about 75% reporting healthy job prospects and credit access.
- November is off to a solid start, with comps rebounding into positive territory, helped by early holiday and seasonal momentum, strength in appliances, tools, and home decor categories.
- Executives highlighted continued operational discipline, productivity initiatives, and AI-driven efficiency gains, with positive comps in 10 of 14 merchandise divisions.
- Housing market sluggishness and high rates continue to weigh on big-ticket remodel demand, but LOW points to record homeowner equity ($400K avg), a persistent “lock-in effect,” and pent-up remodeling demand should rates ease.
- Smaller ticket repairs are holding up well.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
LOW delivered a reassuring Q3 that helped counteract the caution from HD’s outlook. Despite macro headwinds, the company beat earnings expectations and maintained revenue growth, thanks to solid Pro business trends and the FBM acquisition. Near-term results are hampered by consumer softness, but operational discipline, early positive Q4 comps, and growth in appliances point to relative resilience. While sector challenges remain, LOW appears well-positioned to outperform if the macro backdrop improves.
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