SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
From: E_K_S11/21/2025 2:43:00 PM
1 Recommendation

Recommended By
roguedolphin

   of 78763
 
Re: Ugi Corp (UGI) 37.27 +2.13 (+6.08%) beat on earnings & guides higher!

UGI outlines 5% to 7% EPS CAGR target through 2029 while strengthening AmeriGas operations

I started building this position 11/2023 and built an over sized position by 2/2024; Avg cost $21.76/share and have already sold 40% of the position. Target is at/above $42 close to the previous 5 year high.

The to date CAGR is 30.51% and when you include dividends it is 33.11% CAGR. Notice the total return is +71.47% when you impute the time held the CAGR falls to 33.11% (including dividends).

The S&P 500 Total Return CAGR for the same approximate two-year period is 25.33%

The S&P 500 10-Year Total Return CAGR (November 2015 to November 2025) is approximately 12.89% to 14.80% . . (this is the target to beat but most of the time just better to hold an Index Mutual Fund to get these CAGR returns)

------------------------------------------------------------

Sometimes you get lucky but more often you do get a reversion to the mean w/ good management and patients. UGI sold it's European asset earlier this quarter (paid down debt) and focused on it's AmeriGas operations w/ new CapX investments.

----------------------------------------------------------------

The current key valuation and growth metrics for UGI Corporation (UGI), based on recent market data, are as follows:

MetricValueNotes
Current P/E Ratio (TTM)$\approx 18.3$Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) P/E ratio.
Forward P/E Ratio$\approx 11.4$Reflects the stock price divided by the estimated earnings for the next 12 months. The lower Forward P/E compared to the Current P/E suggests analysts expect a significant increase in earnings.
Forward CAGR (EPS Growth)$5\%$ to $7\%$This is the company's stated new long-term Adjusted EPS (Earnings Per Share) Growth Target. Analyst consensus for 5-year EPS growth is also in the range of $\approx 3.8\%$.
Dividend Yield$\approx 4.31\%$Based on the current annual dividend of $\$1.50$ per share. UGI has a long history of dividend increases.


Understanding the Ratios

  • P/E vs. Forward P/E: The sharp drop from the Current P/E ($\approx 18.3$) to the Forward P/E ($\approx 11.4$) indicates that the market expects UGI's earnings to recover significantly or grow substantially over the next year.

  • Forward CAGR: The $5\%$ to $7\%$ annual EPS growth target is a key long-term indicator for the company's ability to compound its earnings and potentially support its stock price and dividend in the future.

  • Dividend Yield: A yield over $4\%$ is considered quite high in the current market and is typical for established utility-sector companies like UGI.

Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News