Market Snapshot
| Dow | 46448.06 | +202.86 | (0.44%) | | Nasdaq | 22872.03 | +598.93 | (2.69%) | | SP 500 | 6705.11 | +102.13 | (1.55%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1740 | Dec 1017 | Vol 2.04 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 3227 | Dec 1487 | Vol 9.41 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Communication Services, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary |
| | Weak: Energy, Consumer Staples |
Moving the Market
--Renewed hopes for a December rate cut
--Buy-the-dip interest across mega-cap and tech names, broader market mostly higher
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Markets push higher as mega-caps lead and rate cut odds firm
24-Nov-25 16:30 ET
Dow +202.86 at 46448.06, Nasdaq +598.93 at 22872.03, S&P +102.13 at 6705.11
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market posted a solid start to the holiday-shortened week as renewed optimism around a December rate cut saw stocks advance in broad-based fashion with exceptional leadership from mega-cap names. Strength in mega-cap and tech stocks saw the Nasdaq Composite (+2.7%) outperform the S&P 500 (+1.6%) and DJIA (+0.4%), while the Russell 2000 (+1.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.0%) also secured solid gains.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller (FOMC voting member) said he supports a December cut while emphasizing that any further easing should be determined on a meeting-by-meeting basis—a stance that helped lift sentiment today, much like it did on Friday. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (nonvoting FOMC member) also signaled support for a December reduction, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns an 85.1% probability to a 25-basis-point cut at the December meeting, up from 71.0% on Friday.
Nine S&P 500 sectors close with gains, with mega-cap leadership pushing the communication services (+3.9%), information technology (+2.5%), and DJIA (+1.9%) to the top of today's leaderboard. The Vanguard mega-cap growth ETF finished 2.5% higher today as all of the "magnificent seven" names secured gains.
Tesla (TSLA 417.50, +26.41, +6.75%) was a mega-cap standout, while Alphabet (GOOG 318.47, +18.82, +6.28%) finished with a similar gain amid positive reception to its Gemini 3 AI model.
NVIDIA (NVDA 182.55, +3.67, +2.05%) captured a much-needed gain after trading lower this morning, though Broadcom (AVGO 377.96, +37.76, +11.10%) and Micron (MU 223.93, +16.56, +7.99%) captured wider gains across the chipmaking cohort that saw some renewed buy-the-dip interest today after recent weakness. The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished with a 4.6% gain, though recent weakness keeps it 7.3% lower for the month of November.
Only the consumer staples (-1.3%) and energy (-0.3%) sectors closed lower. The defensive orientation of the consumer staples sector saw it lag as momentum names garnered more interest, though Tyson Foods (TSN 57.20, +3.53, +6.58%) still managed a nice gain following the company's official confirmation that it will shutter its Lexington, Nebraska, beef facility, a strategic move that validates earlier reporting by The Wall Street Journal.
Today's gains saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite briefly eclipse their 50-day moving averages, which had been violated on a closing basis last week for the first time since April. The indices would go on to close just beneath the key technical level, reflecting that while the market has certainly seen some confidence restored to mega-cap, AI, and other momentum plays, there is a hesitancy to fully embrace a risk-on posture.
U.S. Treasuries began the week with solid gains in longer tenors while the short end underperformed, ending slightly higher. The 2-year note underperformed, finishing unchanged at 3.51%, but still eked out a slight gain with some assistance from a solid $69 billion 2-year note sale. Meanwhile, the 10-year note yield settled down three basis points to 4.04%.
There were no economic data releases today.
- Nasdaq Composite: +18.4% YTD
- S&P 500: +14.0% YTD
- DJIA: +9.2% YTD
- Russell 2000: +8.3% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +3.0% YTD
December rate cut odds inch higher
24-Nov-25 15:30 ET
Dow +220.45 at 46465.65, Nasdaq +583.01 at 22856.11, S&P +100.29 at 6703.27
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are little changed from previous levels just before the close as the market looks to start the week with a win.
Increased optimism around a December rate cut has boosted the market today, much like it did in Friday's session.
Most recently, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (nonvoting FOMC member) said she supports a December rate reduction, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of a December rate cut have inched up to 80.9%, up from 71.0% on Friday.
S&P 500 just beneath 50-day moving average
24-Nov-25 15:05 ET
Dow +228.49 at 46473.69, Nasdaq +590.56 at 22863.66, S&P +103.22 at 6706.20
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+2.5%), and DJIA (+0.4%) continue to trade in a tight range near session highs that has defined today's action.
Notably, the S&P 500 has been unable to reclaim its 50-day moving average (6,713.21), hovering just 0.1% beneath the technical level it slipped beneath last week for the first time on a closing basis since April.
Participation remains strong, with eight S&P 500 sectors holding gains, while strength across the mega-caps keeps the communication services (+3.9%), information technology (+2.5%), and consumer discretionary (+2.1%) sectors at the top of the leaderboard.
S&P 500 jumps 1.5% as WDC, TSN, and COIN lead gains; Copart drags
24-Nov-25 14:30 ET
Dow +247.79 at 46492.99, Nasdaq +579.23 at 22852.33, S&P +100.98 at 6703.96
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.53%) is in second place on Monday afternoon, up about 100 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Western Digital (WDC 152.02, +12.83, +9.22%), Tyson Foods (TSN 57.28, +3.61, +6.73%), and Coinbase Global (COIN 255.88, +15.47, +6.43%) pepper the top of the standings. TSN's advance reflects investor optimism that closing underperforming beef plants and consolidating production will cut costs, boost margins, and improve long-term profitability, while COIN rallies due in part to strength in crypto to open the week.
Meanwhile, Copart (CPRT 39.07, -1.66, -4.08%) is today's worst laggard despite a dearth of corporate news.
Gold Edges Higher on Fed Cut Bets as Nasdaq Surges, Gains Capped by Firm Dollar
24-Nov-25 14:00 ET
Dow +306.63 at 46551.83, Nasdaq +577.51 at 22850.61, S&P +105.37 at 6708.35
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+2.59%) is firmly higher on Monday afternoon, up more than 577 points.
Gold futures settled $14.70 higher (+0.4%) at $4,094.20/oz, as traders leaned into growing expectations for a December Fed rate cut, following dovish signals suggesting the labor market is cooling. Gains were partially restrained by a firmer dollar, which tempered broader safe-haven demand.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down less than -0.1% to $100.14.
Alibaba jumps higher as Qwen app hits 10 mln downloads, signaling fast-moving AI momentum (BABA)
Alibaba (BABA) is trading sharply higher after the company announced that its newly relaunched Qwen app, formerly called Tongyi, has surpassed 10 mln downloads in just one week of public beta. The free app is available in China via mobile and web, with an international version coming soon, and BABA plans to integrate agentic-AI features to support shopping and personalization across platforms like Taobao.
- Qwen’s fast adoption marks BABA’s most aggressive move yet to compete directly with ChatGPT, Google’s (GOOG, GOOGL) Gemini, Perplexity, and other global GenAI leaders.
- The company is backing this push with massive investment. In September, BABA committed RMB 380 bln (approx. $53 bln) to AI over three years — a level on par with, or exceeding, annualized AI infrastructure spend from U.S. hyperscalers like Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and GOOG, and far above the scale of OpenAI itself.
- These investments are already driving results. In 1Q26, Cloud Intelligence revenue surged 26% yr/yr to RMB 33.4 bln, aided by strong demand for compute and cloud services supporting AI workloads.
- AI product revenue posted triple-digit growth for the eighth straight quarter, showing robust enterprise adoption across China.
- The main drawback is that cloud margins remain slim, with adjusted EBITDA of just RMB 2.95 bln in Q1, reflecting the cost intensity of AI infrastructure build-out.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
BABA’s Qwen momentum illustrates how quickly China’s tech giants are mobilizing to narrow the generative-AI gap with U.S. players. The early traction is meaningful because it demonstrates real consumer uptake at a time when many Chinese AI apps have struggled to differentiate themselves. Still, the investment burden is high: BABA’s planned RMB 380 bln in AI spending puts it in the same league as AMZN and META -- companies expected to invest $30–$50+ bln per year in AI-related infrastructure -- and well above what most standalone AI labs can match. The payoff is showing up in Cloud’s accelerating top line, but profitability remains challenged and will stay under pressure as BABA prioritizes scale. For U.S. rivals such as GOOG, META, and AMZN, Qwen’s early success reinforces that global GenAI competition is broadening, especially in consumer-facing applications and commerce-focused agentic features.
WeRide Shifts into High Gear on Robotaxi Growth and Landmark Driverless Permits (WRD)
WeRide (WRD) is trading sharply higher after reporting its Q3 results this morning. The autonomous driving company significantly narrowed its loss to RMB (1.02) from RMB (14.79) in the year ago period, while revenue surged a record 144% yr/yr to RMB 171 mln.
- Growth was supported by continued fleet expansion and increasing service penetration. Product revenue and service revenue increased 428% and 66.9% yr/yr to RMB 79.2 mln and RMB 91.8 mln, respectively.
- The standout was robotaxi, with revenue increasing 761% yr/yr to RMB 35.3 mln, reaching 20.7% of total revenue from 5.8% in the prior year period.
- Gross profit surged 1,123% yr/yr to RMB 56.3 mln, supported by a sharp expansion in gross margin to 32.9% from 6.5% a year ago, benefiting from stronger mix, improved fleet efficiency, better ADAS R&D service projects, and no inventory write-downs.
- Operationally, WeRide secured several major regulatory wins, including a landmark fully driverless commercial permit in Abu Dhabi and Switzerland's first driverless robotaxi authorization.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
This was a strong quarter for WeRide, and reflects a powerful combination of accelerating commercialization, major regulatory validation, and improving financials. The standout was robotaxi, with growing momentum on the Uber (UBER) platform in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh helping increase usage and visibility. These regulatory wins meaningfully reduce uncertainty and support a clearer path toward profitability, underscored by operations in Abu Dhabi reaching unit-economics breakeven following the latest driverless permit. With a fleet now exceeding 1,600 vehicles and broader deployments across China, the Middle East, and Europe, the Q3 update offers a glimpse into what scaled autonomous mobility could look like.
MGIC Investment Mortgage Mojo: Why This Insurer Is ‘Paying It Back’ Through Hefty Buybacks (MTG)
With the news flow light today, we're highlighting a high-ranking member of our YIELD Leaders list: MGIC Investment (MTG), a leading provider of private mortgage insurance (PMI) and other mortgage credit risk products. With U.S. mortgage rates pulling back from last summer's highs—and the Fed expected (but not guaranteed) to cut rates by 25 bps on December 10—this is a timely moment to revisit the name.
A Direct Play on Housing Market Dynamics
- MTG's business is tightly linked to the housing market. PMI is typically required when a buyer puts down less than 20%—a situation increasingly common as home prices rise and affordability remains stretched.
- On its Q3 call, MTG noted early signs of improvement: Easing mortgage rates and slower home price appreciation are modestly lifting affordability. Housing inventory, while still tight, has improved since last year. Purchase applications continue to show a slow-but-steady upward trend.
Large Capital Returns Stand Out
- MTG maintains a top spot in our YIELD rankings largely due to aggressive share repurchases, signaling management confidence. In Q3, MTG bought back 7 mln shares for $188 mln. Over the past four quarters, total buybacks reached $786 mln.
- With a $6.3 bln market cap, these repurchases are highly meaningful, supporting a robust 12.1% buyback yield. Management reiterated that share repurchases will remain the primary method of returning capital to shareholders.
Affordability Issues Actually Support MTG
- While affordability challenges might normally suggest caution toward housing-linked stocks, in MTG's case the dynamic can be beneficial.
- When buyers can't reach the 20% down payment threshold, PMI becomes a requirement—directly boosting demand for MTG's products. Lower mortgage rates could further support homebuyer activity, even if affordability remains strained.
- A Watch Item: Account-based delinquency rate rose 11 bps in Q3 to 2.32%, matching internal expectations. New delinquency notices were slightly lower yr/yr, and remain low by historical standards. Going forward, MTG expects seasonality and the aging of its 2021-22 books to push delinquency notices and the delinquency rate higher. While manageable for now, this remains an area to monitor.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
MTG stands out because of the magnitude and consistency of its buybacks. That activity—coupled with a gradually rising share price—signals solid management conviction in near-term fundamentals. While the delinquency rate is inching higher, the increases are modest and well telegraphed. The more important macro lever is mortgage rates: if the Fed does cut in December and rates continue to drift lower, MTG should see incremental demand tailwinds in 2025-26. Crucially, affordability challenges don't undermine MTG—they reinforce the need for PMI, making MTG a rare name that benefits from an otherwise strained housing backdrop. Given its capital return profile and favorable structural setup, MTG is worth keeping on the radar for yield-focused investors.
Novo Nordisk craters as Semaglutide fails to slow Alzheimer’s progression in Phase 3 trials (NVO)
Novo Nordisk (NVO) is plunging lower after announcing that its EVOKE and EVOKE+ Phase 3 trials of oral semaglutide did not demonstrate a statistically significant reduction in Alzheimer’s disease progression versus placebo. The company said the two-year primary analysis failed to meet the prespecified primary endpoint (CDR-SB), and a planned one-year extension was discontinued.
- The primary endpoint -- change in Clinical Dementia Rating–Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB) -- showed no meaningful slowing of cognitive or functional decline versus placebo, making the readout clearly negative and clinically disappointing.
- While semaglutide produced improvements in some Alzheimer’s-related biomarkers, those biomarker shifts did not translate into real-world clinical benefit, which is the key disconnect that explains today’s sharp market reaction.
- EVOKE and EVOKE+ enrolled about 3,800 patients with early-stage Alzheimer’s, and hopes were elevated because GLP-1 drugs have been associated with anti-inflammatory effects that some believed could slow neurodegeneration.
- An approval would have unlocked a major new non-core revenue stream on top of semaglutide’s already massive diabetes/obesity franchises, so today’s miss removes a meaningful upside scenario from the long-term model.
- The setback also has broader sector implications: it tempers enthusiasm for GLP-1-based approaches in neurodegeneration and may shift sentiment toward companies pursuing other mechanisms, such as Biogen’s (BIIB) work in amyloid and tau.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
NVO’s failure in EVOKE underscores how difficult it is to convert promising biomarker signals into meaningful clinical outcomes in Alzheimer’s disease. Even though the underlying scientific rationale for GLP-1s in neuroinflammation was compelling, the Phase 3 data show that the metabolic and anti-inflammatory effects of semaglutide weren’t enough to slow cognitive decline in early-stage patients. For NVO, the direct financial impact is limited because Alzheimer’s was not embedded into near-term forecasts, but the loss of optionality shrinks long-term upside and removes a sentiment driver for a stock already facing heightened expectations. The readout will also prompt investors to reassess the broader thesis that GLP-1 drugs could become a multi-disease platform beyond diabetes and obesity.
Gap Fashions a Strong Q3 with Accelerating Comps and Guidance Raise (GAP)
Gap (GAP) is trading sharply higher after reporting its Q3 (Oct) results last night. It beat EPS expectations, while revenue accelerated, increasing 3% yr/yr to $3.9 bln, in line with expectations. It also raised FY26 revenue guidance to $15.36-15.40 bln from $15.24-15.39 bln, which was above expectations.
- Comp sales accelerated to +5% from +1% in Q2, marking its best quarterly comp in over four years and the seventh straight quarter of comp growth.
- By brand, Gap led with comps +7% (+4% in Q2), Old Navy followed at +6% (+2% in Q2), and Banana Republic delivered +4% (+4% in Q2). Athleta remains a laggard with comps -11%, down from -9% in Q2.
- Gross margin declined 30 bps to 42.4% as tariffs weighed on profitability, but results were still better than expected. Lower discounting supported AUR growth, while operating margin of 8.5% fell 80 bps, including an estimated 190 bps tariff headwind, which implies roughly 110 bps of underlying margin expansion.
- The back-to-school season was strong, and management noted a positive early read on holiday trends, supported by trend-right assortments and refreshed marketing. Furthermore, it expects tariff pressure to remain similar in Q4, but mitigation efforts should begin to offset the impact as the company moves into the new year.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
GAP's Q3 results showcased broad-based strength across its three largest brands, driving its best comp performance in over four years. Old Navy was a standout this quarter, with management noting that its value-focused assortments resonated across all income cohorts, underscoring continued consumer demand for accessible price points in an uneven macro environment. Athleta remains the key drag as the brand undergoes a broader strategic reset under new leadership. Management cautioned that the turnaround will take time, with early efforts centered on reestablishing Athleta's premium positioning, making it a watch point in the quarters ahead. With that said, raised guidance, improving tariff mitigation, and solid early holiday momentum suggest GAP is heading into the new year on stronger footing.
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