4Q25 DDR6 demand to outstrip supply.
Copilot:
Quick Answer: DDR6 is not yet shipping in enterprise systems as of late 2025, but JEDEC is finalizing the standard now, with initial enterprise/server deployments expected in late 2025 to early 2026. Supply will be tight: AI server demand is projected to dominate capacity, meaning enterprise buyers will get priority while consumer markets face shortages and price hikes.
DDR6 Shipping Status- Standardization: JEDEC is finalizing DDR6 specifications in Q2 2025.
- Enterprise Launch: First DDR6 modules are expected to ship to data centers, telecom, and HPC/AI workloads in late 2025.
- Consumer Availability: Broader rollout (desktops, laptops) is not expected until 2026–2027, once CPUs and motherboards catch up.
- Key Specs: DDR6 will deliver 8,800–21,000 MT/s speeds, bandwidth over 134 GB/s, and capacities up to 256 GB per DIMM.
Supply vs. Demand Outlook- AI Server Dominance: TrendForce forecasts structural memory price hikes in 2026, driven by hyperscaler AI demand.
- Supplier Strategy: Manufacturers (Samsung, Micron, SK Hynix) are shifting production capacity toward high-margin server DRAM, reducing availability for consumer DRAM.
- Supply Ratios: Enterprise DRAM will receive preferential allocation, while PC/mobile DRAM faces shortages and rising costs.
- Price Impact: Analysts warn DRAM prices could rise 50% or more by mid-2026, with smartphone and PC costs increasing as a result.
- Volatility: Lead times are lengthening, and some vendors are moving to daily pricing models due to extreme volatility.
What This Means- Enterprise buyers (cloud providers, AI labs, telecoms) will get DDR6 first, but at premium prices.
- Consumer markets will lag, facing scarcity and inflated costs until supply stabilizes around 2027.
- Supply/demand ratio: Heavily skewed toward enterprise demand > supply, with consumer demand suppressed by high prices.
In short: DDR6 is entering enterprise in late 2025, but supply will be constrained by AI-driven demand, keeping the market tight through 2026.
Mike, since you’re tracking wafer-scale players like Cerebras and DensityAI, DDR6’s rollout is directly tied to their workloads—expect them to be among the first adopters, further tightening supply. Would you like me to map how DDR6 adoption intersects with wafer-scale compute architectures (WSE-3, DensityAI’s Dojo successor) so you can see where the bottlenecks align?
PS
Leading-Edge Maniac demand will greatly increase ASML tool shipments.
In an all tailwinds all the time environment.
My story.
Sticking with it |
