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Technology Stocks : Diamond Multimedia

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To: lml who wrote (3421)	2/25/1998 11:24:00 PM
From: Eric Winterhalder	Read Replies (1) of 4679

Here's First Call's earnings consensus. It shows a fairly large spread between the low and high estimate for the FY ending Dec 98. Based on the company's performance in the last Q of 97 and given the recent OEM/Intel agreements I'd say the .44 figure needs to be updated. I don't know who the analyst is but IMO he/she needs to come out with a revised estimate. If they just equaled their 4Q FY97 earnings (.20), that leaves .24/3= .08 a Q for the next three Q's to make .44 . I would estimate that they'll do, at a minimum, double that on average or 3 X.16=.48 for the three Q's. This gets us to about .68 for the year. IMO a reasonable PE for this co is around 25 again based their recent OEM/Intel contracts in what appears to be a segment of the industry that is undergoing very strong growth. This gets us to around $17 as fair value for this stock. DIMD Diamond Multimedia 02/23/98 Industry: Comp-wo IBM SIC: 3577 Latest Price: $12.75 1998 P/E: 19.9 Analyst Recommendation: 2.3 QTR QTR FY FY Mar 98 Jun 98 Dec 98 Dec 99 --- --- -- -- CURRENT MEAN EPS 0.19 0.11 0.64 0.84 Number of Brokers 5 5 6 5 Median 0.18 0.12 0.67 0.85 Standard Deviation 0.02 0.03 0.11 0.14 Current High 0.21 0.15 0.80 1.05 Current Low 0.16 0.06 0.44 0.62 Year Ago EPS -0.17A -1.29A -1.33A 0.64 Current vs. Year Ago Change 212% 109% 148% 31% Report Date wk/Apr 17 wk/Jul 17 wk/Jan 22 - EARNINGS ESTIMATE REVISION MOMENTUM Up Revisions last 7 days 0 0 0 0 Up Revisions last 30 days 0 0 0 0 Down Revisions last 7 days 0 0 0 0 Down Revisions last 30 days 0 0 0 0 EARNINGS ESTIMATES CONSENSUS TRENDS Current Mean 0.19 0.11 0.64 0.84 7-days ago Mean 0.19 0.11 0.64 0.84 30-days ago Mean 0.19 0.11 0.64 0.75 60-days ago Mean 0.11 0.05 0.49 0.70 90-days ago Mean 0.11 0.05 0.50 0.70 COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES AND TRENDS Industry - Comp-wo IBM 10.26 11.80 49.32 60.06 Current vs. Year Ago Change 14% 23% 26% 22% Sector - TECHNOLOGY 8.58 10.17 42.19 54.23 Current vs. Year Ago Change 4% 11% 18% 29% WSJ/DJ US Index 10.49 11.80 47.83 52.97 Current vs. Year Ago Change 5% 10% 12% 11% Ratios Relative To: Company Industry Sector WSJ/DJ P/E on 1998 Cal Yr Mean 19.9 21.83 24.50 20.55 PEG on 1998 Cal Yr Mean 1.05 1.23 1.39 1.66 RECOMMENDATION AND GROWTH RATES RECOMMENDATIONS LONG TERM GROWTH RATES Current Mean 2.3 Next 5 yrs - Median 19% Number of Brokers 6 Number of Brokers 2 Industry Recommendation: 2.1 Industry Growth Rate: 18% 7-days ago Mean 2.3 Next 5 yrs - High 20% 30-days ago Mean 2.3 Next 5 yrs - Low 18% 60-days ago Mean 2.0 Last 5 Years 14% 90-days ago Mean 2.0 Diff. from Industry -0.2 Rel. to Industry 1.1 Diff. from Sector -0.3 Rel. to Sector 1.1 Diff. from WSJ/DJ US -0.1 Rel. to WSJ/DJ US 1.5 Transmitted: 02/24/98 08:25 (E_DIMD) EW

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