CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace

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To: J.B.C. who wrote (41467)	12/2/2025 10:15:32 AM
From: skinowski	of 41486

Yeah… it’s been a while since we had a serious, lengthy bear market. ‘22 “tried”, but didn’t quite make it. The question is - are we due for a serious Bear, or are we building up for another big increase in the rolling 3 year percent change? I don’t think the answer is knowable. The world is changing. The only thing we can do to avoid getting trapped in a major Bear is to have trend following rules. One simple example I read in a book by Andreas Clenow, many years ago. It’s very simple — 1) No new buying while SP500 is trading below its 200dma, and 2) when this happens, sell all holdings that are trading below their 100dma - and, any holdings that will close below their 100dma. Can’t be any simpler. Is it the best? Don’t know. Would be nice to see a formal back testing comparison (Clenow didn’t offer one). But, it will probably keep any investor from… staying wrong for too long (which is the most important part of the game).

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