Latest from Agoracom: MVRL CAI implications
Per the request of some users: (I'm sorry for the formatting in advance. I am at work on mobile and do not have access to my laptop for improved formatting).
Me:
What would a celestial AI acquisition by Marvell mean for POET? Is this good or bad? Does it mean anything? Should I be worried?
CHATGPT:
Below is the straight, unsweetened assessment you’re asking for — Critical Mode on.
No hedging, no optimism-padding.
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1. Does Marvell acquiring Celestial AI mean anything for POET?
Yes — but not in the simplistic “good/bad” way you might hope for.
It’s a strategic data point, not a thesis-breaker.
Marvell acquiring Celestial AI signals one thing clearly:
? The silicon photonics consolidation wave has officially started.
That matters because POET is a small player with a differentiated platform in a market where large players are starting to integrate vertically.
But don’t over-interpret. This deal does not point directly at POET’s success or failure.
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2. Is this good or bad for POET? (Critical analysis)
Potentially Bad / Headwinds
This is the part most investors gloss over, but you should take seriously:
1. Marvell now owns an integrated photonics stack that competes with POET’s value proposition.
Celestial AI was one of the better-funded early movers in optical interconnects.
Marvell just absorbed that IP.
2. Bigger incumbents absorbing startups raises the bar for POET.
POET’s “IP moat” is meaningful, but now it’s being measured against companies with:
massive integration resources
existing datacenter customer relationships
ability to deploy at scale sooner
3. Marvell may seek to close their ecosystem around their newly acquired photonics assets.
Closed ecosystems reduce the number of customers who might turn to POET.
4. This reduces the number of independent photonic players available for POET partnerships or eventual acquisition.
Potentially Good tailwinds
Not everything is negative; there are structural positives too:
1. Validation:
A large semiconductor company buying a photonics interconnect startup proves the market trend is real.
This is validation of POET’s entire category:
chiplet architectures
optical I/O
alternative integration methods
power-efficiency critical paths
2. Consolidation increases the scarcity value of POET.
If big companies are shopping, POET is now a rarer target.
3. Competition between big players opens gaps for neutral platform providers.
Marvell locking into Celestial may push other players (Broadcom, AMD, NVIDIA, Intel, Amazon, hyperscalers) to look harder at non-Marvell photonic solutions.
4. POET’s technology is still structurally different.
Celestial AI was focused on optical memory fabric and optical interconnect using its proprietary Photonic Fabric.
POET’s platform solves:
low-cost assembly
chiplet partitioning
laser integration
efficient coupling
These are orthogonal problems, not redundant.
So the overlap is partial, not direct.
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3. Should you be worried? (Direct answer)
No — not in the sense of “POET is threatened by this.”
But yes in the sense that the competitive field just got more serious.
You shouldn’t panic.
You should treat this as a reminder that:
execution matters more than technology alone
big players will consolidate aggressively
partnerships, not patents, will determine winners
POET needs commercial proof, not demos
the “small agile innovator wins” story gets harder in a consolidation wave
This isn’t a thesis-breaker for POET.
It’s a pressure-raiser.
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4. The blunt summary
Not a disaster for POET.
Not a direct positive either.
It increases the competitive temperature and likely accelerates timelines.
If POET executes — great.
If they stumble — consolidation like this will make the market far less forgiving.
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Me:
We know that POET is the enabler of CAI. According to Lisa Thompson from Zach's scr, celestial placed a 5million dollar PO. DOES THIS CHANGE YOUR STANCE?
ChatGPT:
Short answer: It changes the interpretation, but it does NOT remove the strategic risk.
It improves POET’s relative position if the CAI purchase order is real and verifiable — but it also sharpens the stakes.
Here’s the hard-edged breakdown.
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1. If POET truly is the enabler of CAI’s product ? Marvell just bought one of POET’s customers
This immediately flips part of the earlier dynamic.
If Celestial AI is using POET’s platform as a foundational integration layer and placed a $5M purchase order, then:
? Marvell now indirectly depends on POET for a critical piece of its newly acquired photonics roadmap.
Companies don’t like that, but they tolerate it when:
the tech is indispensable
replication is expensive and slow
supplier lock-in delay is unacceptable
That means POET’s technology is:
validated
inside the pipeline
financially committed
hard to replace quickly
This is unequivocally good for POET in the short and medium term.
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2. But here’s the uncomfortable truth investors hate hearing
Big companies eventually try to own what they depend on.
Especially Marvell.
If CAI is structurally dependent on POET’s integration platform, Marvell will eventually face three choices:
1. Acquire POET
2. License POET broadly
3. Replace POET with internal tech (takes years and isn’t guaranteed)
Only one of these is bad for POET — option #3 — and even that requires time and expertise Marvell does not currently have.
But you need to be realistic:
Being a critical supplier puts POET in the spotlight.
Exactly where you want to be — but also where giants start paying very close attention.
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3. Does the $5M PO change the stance?
It changes some parts materially:
(1) It removes the biggest prior risk
If POET is already in CAI’s product stack with a multi-million PO, then:
POET is not “left behind”
POET is not competing directly with CAI
POET is actually enabling the technology Marvell just spent serious money on
So the competitive worry is reduced.
POET is upstream, not rivalry-side.
(2) It increases POET’s strategic value dramatically
Marvell did not buy CAI for their packaging, lasers, or O-Band integration.
If CAI’s implementation fundamentally relies on POET’s platform:
Marvell inherits a dependency
Marvell now has to take POET seriously
POET becomes acquisition or licensing optionality
This is leverage.
(3) It DOES NOT eliminate long-term risk
And here’s where investors get sloppy:
Big companies eventually internalize critical IP.
Supplier displacement is always on the table.
Marvell’s internal roadmap might try to replicate POET’s capabilities over 3–7 years.
Until then?
POET has a window of high leverage and high visibility.
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4. Should you still worry?
Not the way you were before.
Now the risk has shifted:
Before ? “Is POET bypassed or irrelevant?”
After ? “Can POET capitalize before Marvell or others try to internalize?”
Very different.
The first risk was existential.
The second is strategic and competitive, but not fatal — and often leads to acquisition outcomes.
If the $5M PO is legitimate and CAI depends on POET, then:
POET is now too integrated for Marvell to ignore
and too small for them not to consider buying if the tech proves indispensable.
This is what “strategic leverage” looks like.
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5. Updated stance in one line
POET’s near-term outlook improves meaningfully; long-term risk morphs into “will a giant absorb them or try to replicate them?” instead of “will they be left behind?” |
