yet another paper that underscores how important it is for Elbozos to keep their covid mRNA boosters up to date:
This study used a rigorous actuarial approach to estimate ex-
cess mortality across German federal states during the first
three years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Regional trends were
analysed alongside associations with state-level indicators: re-
ported COVID-19 deaths and infections, policy stringency, vac-
cination rates, demographic and socioeconomic factors. Aver-
age excess mortality was moderate in the first year, with sub-
stantial regional variation. It increased slightly in the second
year, with stable regional patterns. In the third year, excess
mortality rose sharply, regional differences diminished, and
the most affected states shifted, indicating the emergence of a
new excess mortality driver. In the first two years, excess mor-
tality strongly correlated with COVID-19 deaths, although re-
ported COVID-19 deaths substantially exceeded excess deaths.
Despite rising excess mortality, COVID-19 deaths declined
over time. In the third year, only vaccination rate and trust in
institutions showed notable associations, with the latter fully
mediated by vaccination rate. Higher vaccination rates corre-
lated with larger increases in excess mortality and with smaller
declines in COVID-19 deaths and case fatality rates, even af-
ter adjusting for prior mortality levels and time-invariant con-
founders. This robust finding underscores the need for urgent
investigation into potential unintended effects of vaccination
or other previously neglected mortality drivers.
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