Investigations into the October 7, 2023 Hamas-Led Attack
Comprehensive Timeline:
Status Report as of December 4, 2025
Executive Summary The Hamas-led assault on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths (mostly civilians) and the abduction of 251 people, marking the deadliest attack in Israel's history. As of December 4, 2025, multiple internal investigations by Israeli security agencies have examined intelligence, operational, and policy failures. However, no comprehensive state commission of inquiry — modeled after independent probes like the 1973 Yom Kippur War investigation — has been established, despite widespread public demand (approximately 70% support across the political spectrum).
Instead, on November 17, 2025, the government approved a limited internal committee overseen by Prime Minister Netanyahu himself, sparking accusations of a cover-up from bereaved families, opposition leaders, and civil society groups. The High Court has ordered the government to justify by January 4, 2026, why it is not launching an independent state commission.
Section 1: Background & Pre-Attack Intelligence Failures Hamas Planning Timeline • 2016: Hamas began planning the October 7 attack, developing the operation over seven years.
• September 2022: Hamas reached 85% operational readiness for the attack.
• May 2023: Hamas finalized the specific date for the attack.
• 2018-2023: Intelligence reports codenamed "Jericho Walls" outlined Hamas's intent to launch a wide-scale invasion — these warnings were repeatedly dismissed by military leadership.
Key Pre-Attack Warnings Ignored • July 2023: A signals intelligence analyst warned of the impending attack; the warning was dismissed as "imaginary."
• Weeks before October 7: Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar and IDF Chief Herzi Halevi reportedly warned Netanyahu — who was hospitalized after having a pacemaker fitted — that Israel's enemies saw judicial overhaul tensions as an opportunity to strike.
• Female IDF field observers ("tatzpitaniot"): Attempted to warn command of unusual Hamas activity; their warnings were ignored.
• Hours before attack: Dozens of SIM cards were activated by Hamas members — a known indicator of an impending raid — but security services missed the signal.
Policy Context: The Qatar Cash Flow Shin Bet reports highlighted how government strategies, including allowing Qatari funds to flow into Gaza (hundreds of millions of dollars from 2018-2023), bolstered Hamas's military wing despite agency warnings. Security chiefs had warned against Netanyahu's years-long policy of permitting Qatar to send millions of dollars in cash to Hamas on a weekly basis.
Section 2: October 7, 2023 — The Attack At approximately 6:29 AM, rocket sirens across Israel announced the start of the Hamas assault. According to later investigations:
• 6:29 AM: Military Secretary Maj. Gen. Avi Gil phoned Netanyahu via WhatsApp. Netanyahu reportedly asked "Why are they firing [rockets]?" and told Gil to call back in ten minutes.
• 6:40 AM: Gil called again on a secure line. Only then did Netanyahu order a situational assessment.
• Breach Points: Hamas breached the border at over 60 points; the IDF had only planned defenses for 8.
• Response Delays: Communities remained undefended for hours due to delayed troop deployment and poor coordination.
• Casualties: Approximately 1,200 killed (mostly civilians); 251 taken hostage to Gaza.
Section 3: 2024 Developments April 2024: First Military Resignation Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva (IDF Intelligence Chief) resigned, citing responsibility for ignored warnings. He was the first senior officer to step down.
May 2024: ICC Warrant Applications ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan announced applications for arrest warrants against Israeli leaders (Netanyahu, Gallant) and Hamas leaders (Sinwar, Deif, Haniyeh) for war crimes and crimes against humanity. The warrants for Hamas leaders were later withdrawn as they were killed by Israel.
October 2024: Feldstein Arrest — "Secret Documents" Scandal October 27, 2024: Eli Feldstein, Netanyahu's security affairs spokesperson, was arrested in connection with stealing classified IDF intelligence and leaking a manipulated version to the German tabloid Bild. The leak was allegedly designed to shift public opinion against hostage families demanding a deal, by falsely attributing a document to Hamas leader Sinwar.
The IDF determined the document was several months old and not written by Sinwar, but by a mid-level Hamas operative. Feldstein was charged with transferring classified information with intent to harm state security — a charge carrying a potential life sentence.
November 2024: Protocol Tampering Investigation November 14, 2024: Tzachi Braverman, Netanyahu's Chief of Staff, was questioned by police on suspicion of forgery and fraud for allegedly altering the timestamp of Netanyahu's first call with his military secretary on October 7 morning — changing it from 6:40 AM to 6:29 AM to create the impression Netanyahu was briefed immediately when the attack began.
Braverman allegedly first pressured a stenographer to make the change; when she refused, he made the change himself. Maj. Gen. Avi Gil reported this to Attorney General Baharav-Miara in February 2025, writing: "This is forgery for all intents and purposes. It's criminal."
November 2024: ICC Issues Arrest Warrants November 21, 2024: The ICC Pre-Trial Chamber issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Gallant for war crimes (starvation as a method of warfare) and crimes against humanity (murder, persecution). All 125 ICC member states are legally obligated to arrest them if they enter their territory.
December 2024: High Court Orders Cabinet Hearing The High Court of Justice ruled that the government must hold a Cabinet hearing on whether to establish a state commission of inquiry, in response to petitions from bereaved families and civil society groups.
Section 4: 2025 Developments — Detailed Timeline January 2025 IDF Chief Halevi Resigns Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi resigned as IDF Chief of Staff, taking "personal responsibility" for failures on October 7. He vowed to support an independent probe after his resignation. In leaked audio, Halevi described being "lulled to sleep" in the lead-up to the attack.
February 2025 IDF Releases First Official Report The IDF released a 19-page summary admitting "complete failure" to protect civilians, citing decades of underestimating Hamas and ignored warnings. No individual blame was assigned; the report called for a "systemic" probe.
Supreme Court President Amit Sworn In Isaac Amit was sworn in as Supreme Court President. Justice Minister Yariv Levin immediately began boycotting Amit and refusing to recognize his authority — an unprecedented breakdown between branches of government that would complicate any state commission appointment.
"Qatargate" Criminal Investigation Ordered Attorney General Baharav-Miara ordered a criminal investigation into ties between PMO officials (Feldstein, Urich, Einhorn) and Qatar, following allegations they worked for a Qatar-funded lobbying firm to improve Doha's public image.
Likud MK Presents Alternative Commission Plan Likud MK Ariel Kallner unveiled a plan for an "egalitarian" commission whose members would be appointed by the Knesset rather than the Supreme Court President — seen as an effort to preempt an independent state commission.
March 2025 Shin Bet Report Implicates Government Policy A Shin Bet probe blamed Netanyahu's "divide-and-rule" approach — sidelining the Palestinian Authority and allowing Qatari cash flows — for emboldening Hamas. The agency also admitted its own lapses in fusing intelligence with the IDF. Netanyahu's office dismissed the report as biased.
Netanyahu Rejects Compromise Proposal Netanyahu rejected a compromise proposal initiated by Supreme Court President Amit and President Herzog that would have committed Amit to consulting with the court's conservative deputy president in determining a state commission's makeup.
Southern Command Chief Resigns Maj. Gen. Yaron Finkelman (Head of Southern Command) resigned. His resignation letter admitted: "I failed to protect the Western Negev," making him the highest-ranking officer to cite specific territorial failure.
New IDF Chief Zamir Takes Office Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir assumed the role of IDF Chief of Staff, replacing Halevi.
April 2025 ICC Preparing Additional Warrants The Guardian reported that ICC Prosecutor Khan was preparing to seek arrest warrants for additional Israeli suspects, including ministers Ben-Gvir and Smotrich for involvement in illegal settlements. Khan had completed the warrant applications before taking leave in May 2025.
Qatargate Suspects Released to House Arrest A court ruled that Netanyahu aides Urich and Feldstein should be released to house arrest pending the Qatargate investigation. During joint interrogation, Feldstein accused Urich of lying to police about payments, and the two gave contradictory accounts.
May 2025 Government Formally Rejects State Commission May 5, 2025: The Cabinet voted to reject Attorney General Baharav-Miara's call for a state commission of inquiry, instead announcing plans for a "special" commission with narrower powers. Netanyahu claimed half the public would not have faith in a court-appointed commission.
ICC Prosecutor Takes Leave ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan took indefinite leave pending an external probe into accusations of sexual harassment.
Threats Against ICC Revealed A member of Netanyahu's legal team, Nicholas Kaufman, allegedly delivered threats to Khan in The Hague: "They will destroy you and they will destroy the court" if the ICC pursued warrants against Netanyahu.
June-July 2025 IDF Internal Probes into Specific Battles IDF internal investigations into specific incidents (e.g., Kibbutz Be'eri) revealed hours-long delays in response; in some cases, troops prioritized evacuating soldiers over civilians. Public pressure for a broader inquiry intensified.
"Unit 8200" Exodus Following the resignation of Brig. Gen. Yossi Sariel (Unit 8200 Commander), reports confirmed a mass exodus of mid-level intelligence officers who felt the "conception" failure was being blamed solely on them while political directives were ignored.
August 2025 Attorney General: Delays Harming Investigation Attorney General Baharav-Miara told Netanyahu that the government's ongoing delay in establishing an investigative mechanism was "harming the ability of any future investigation to uncover what went wrong." She asserted that a state commission is the only mechanism with power to subpoena witnesses and compel document production.
September 2025 UN Commission Finds Genocide The UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry (chaired by Navi Pillay) released a report concluding that Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, finding Israeli authorities committed four of the five genocidal acts defined by the 1948 Genocide Convention. The Commission identified six Israeli ministers as likely bearing most responsibility.
President Herzog Calls for State Commission President Isaac Herzog publicly stated: "Avoiding the establishment of a commission of inquiry into the events of October 7, in my view, is a serious mistake."
October 2025 High Court: "No Real Argument" Against State Commission October 15, 2025: The High Court told the government there was "no real argument" against establishing a state commission of inquiry, giving the government 30 days to submit an update on its plans. The ruling, which included staunch conservative judge David Mintz, was seen as signaling the court would ultimately compel a state commission.
Operations Chief Basiuk Resigns Maj. Gen. Oded Basiuk (Operations Directorate Head) resigned despite no formal negligence finding, emphasizing "personal accountability."
Knesset Panel Rejects State Commission Proposal October 22, 2025: The Knesset State Control Committee voted down a proposal to establish a state commission. Coalition members from Likud and ultra-Orthodox parties voted against; opposition members voted in favor. The October Council (representing 2,000+ bereaved families) accused the coalition of "burying the truth."
November 2025 Turgeman Report: IDF Probes "Incompetent" November 9, 2025: Maj. Gen. (res.) Sami Turgeman presented findings to Defense Minister Katz showing that over half of the IDF's 25 internal October 7 investigations were "incompetent" or "unacceptable." The report highlighted gaps in threat assessment and command, and notably found that the IDF had "high-quality, actionable intelligence" prior to the attack — the offensive "did not emerge from an informational void."
IDF Chief Zamir Calls for "Systemic Investigation" November 11, 2025: New IDF Chief Zamir, after reviewing the Turgeman findings, called for a "systemic investigation" beyond internal military probes. Defense Minister Katz froze related personnel decisions, escalating tensions.
Trump Sends Pardon Letter November 12, 2025: U.S. President Donald Trump sent a formal letter to President Herzog asking him to "fully pardon Benjamin Netanyahu" in his ongoing corruption trial, calling the charges "political lawfare."
Government Approves Limited Inquiry November 17, 2025: Netanyahu's Cabinet voted to establish a "government committee" rather than a state commission. Key aspects:
• Netanyahu will oversee the makeup of the team governing the inquiry — effectively putting him in charge of probing himself.
• The mandate will be determined by a ministerial panel led by Justice Minister Yariv Levin.
• Ministers Ben-Gvir and Amsalem demanded the probe focus on "the Attorney General's failure to approve strikes" and "the High Court's weakening of deterrence" — effectively investigating the judiciary rather than the government.
• The committee is scheduled to report recommendations by late December 2025.
The October Council, representing bereaved families, called it a "cover-up commission" and announced a boycott. The Movement for Quality Government called it "a transparent attempt to evade a real and independent investigation."
High Court Orders Government to Justify Decision The High Court ordered the government to explain by January 4, 2026 why it is not launching a state commission that could "examine in an independent, professional, and impartial manner" events around the massacre.
Mass Protests Demand State Inquiry November 22, 2025: Thousands packed Tel Aviv's Habima Square demanding a state commission. Five opposition party leaders attended. Bereaved father Izhar Shay called on opposition parties to commit to establishing a state commission immediately upon forming any future government.
IDF Chief Zamir Dismisses Senior Officers November 23-24, 2025: Zamir announced dismissals and censures for officers responsible for October 7 failures:
• Dismissed from reserve duty: Aharon Haliva (former Intelligence Chief), Oded Basiuk (former Operations Chief), Yaron Finkelman (former Southern Command), Yossi Sariel (former Unit 8200 Commander).
• Censured but retained: Shlomi Binder (current Intelligence Chief, will serve until 2028), Tomer Bar (Air Force Chief, will serve until April 2026), David Sa'ar Salama (Navy Chief).
• Ousted from IDF: Col. "Alef," the Gaza Division intelligence officer who dismissed warnings as "imaginary."
Zamir stated: "The IDF failed in its principal mission on October 7 — to protect the citizens of the State of Israel. This is a severe, resounding, and systemic failure."
Katz-Zamir Clash Escalates Defense Minister Katz ordered a re-investigation of Zamir's review, appointing the defense establishment comptroller to submit recommendations within 30 days. Zamir accused Katz of "harming military preparedness." Opposition leader Liberman described the conflict as "madness" and "dangerous," warning about "politicization of the army" where officers advance based on connections rather than competence.
Netanyahu Requests Pardon November 30, 2025: Netanyahu formally submitted a pardon request to President Herzog for his corruption trial (bribery, fraud, breach of trust charges dating to 2019). He argued it was in the "public interest" for the trial to end, but made no admission of guilt. He cited Trump's letter as a factor in his decision. Polls showed 48% opposed an unconditional pardon while 44% supported it.
December 2025 (Current) Netanyahu Asks Trump for More Help December 1, 2025: During a long phone call focused on Gaza and Syria, Netanyahu asked Trump to continue supporting his pardon effort. Trump reportedly said he thinks the pardon "will work out" but didn't commit to further steps.
Netanyahu Appears in Court Netanyahu appeared in court for the first time since requesting his pardon. Demonstrators outside wore orange prison jumpsuits calling for him to go to prison.
New "Jericho Walls" Investigation Launched December 4, 2025: IDF Chief Zamir appointed Maj. Gen. (res.) Roni Numa to head a new investigative panel examining why the military repeatedly dismissed the "Jericho Walls" intelligence reports (dating back to 2018) that precisely outlined Hamas's invasion plans — a critical topic excluded from the army's original October 7 probes.
Section 5: Accountability Summary Military/Security Resignations and Dismissals At least 10+ senior IDF and intelligence officials have resigned or been dismissed since the attack:
Name
| Position
| Action/Date
| Herzi Halevi
| IDF Chief of Staff
| Resigned Jan 2025; took personal responsibility
| Aharon Haliva
| Intelligence Chief
| Resigned Apr 2024; dismissed from reserves Nov 2025
| Yaron Finkelman
| Southern Command
| Resigned Mar 2025; dismissed from reserves Nov 2025
| Oded Basiuk
| Operations Directorate
| Resigned Oct 2025; dismissed from reserves Nov 2025
| Yossi Sariel
| Unit 8200 Commander
| Resigned late 2024; dismissed from reserves Nov 2025
| Shlomi Binder
| Current Intel Chief
| Censured; will serve until 2028 then resign
| Tomer Bar
| Air Force Chief
| Censured (drones/paragliders failure); serves until Apr 2026
| Col. "Alef"
| Gaza Div. Intel Officer
| Ousted from IDF (dismissed warnings as "imaginary")
| No criminal punishments have been imposed; all actions are disciplinary (censures, early retirements, dismissals from reserve duty).
Political Level: Netanyahu's Position Prime Minister Netanyahu has consistently rejected personal blame, asserting:
• He was "kept in the dark" by security officials
• Any inquiry would be "politically biased"
• Failures were caused by the "deep state," judiciary, and 2023 anti-overhaul protests
• He will answer all questions "when the war is over"
His aides face serious criminal investigations:
• Eli Feldstein: Charged with harming state security (potential life sentence) for leaking classified documents; also implicated in Qatargate
• Tzachi Braverman: Under investigation for forgery/fraud over timestamp tampering
• Jonatan Urich: Under investigation for Qatargate ties
Section 6: International Dimensions ICC Arrest Warrants • Active Warrants: Netanyahu and Gallant (issued Nov 2024)
• Charges: War crimes (starvation as method of warfare); crimes against humanity (murder, persecution, other inhumane acts)
• Obligation: All 125 ICC member states must arrest them if they enter their territory
• Defiance: Hungary invited Netanyahu; Poland allowed attendance at Auschwitz commemoration; Germany's CDU leader said he would guarantee Netanyahu's safety
• Pending: Potential additional warrants for Ben-Gvir and Smotrich (prepared before Khan's leave)
UN Commission Findings • September 2025: UN Independent International Commission found Israel committed genocide in Gaza
• Four genocidal acts: Killing, causing serious harm, deliberately inflicting conditions calculated to bring about physical destruction, and imposing measures intended to prevent births
• Named six ministers as likely bearing most responsibility for international crimes
U.S. Involvement President Trump has directly intervened in Israeli domestic affairs:
• Called ICC a "kangaroo court"
• Imposed sanctions on ICC officials
• Sent formal letter asking Israeli president to pardon Netanyahu
• Continues discussing pardon with Netanyahu in phone calls
Section 7: Public Sentiment & Civil Society Polling Data • ~70% of Israelis support a state commission of inquiry (including ~60% of right-wing voters)
• 68% of Netanyahu's right-wing base favors an independent commission
• 73% want Netanyahu to take responsibility or resign (per your original source)
• 48% vs 44% oppose vs support unconditional pardon for Netanyahu
Key Civil Society Groups • October Council: Represents ~2,000 bereaved families, hostage relatives, survivors; boycotting government committee
• Movement for Quality Government: Filed High Court petitions demanding state commission
• Hostages and Missing Persons Families Forum: Advocating for accountability while prioritizing hostage return
• Israel Democracy Institute: Providing polling and legal analysis on commission requirements
Conclusion: Current Status and Outlook As of December 4, 2025, the investigation landscape can be summarized as follows:
• Military: Multiple resignations, dismissals, and censures; new "Jericho Walls" investigation launched today
• Political: No accountability at political level; Netanyahu seeking pardon in corruption trial while overseeing his own October 7 probe
• Legal: High Court deadline January 4, 2026; criminal investigations ongoing into PMO aides
• International: ICC warrants active; UN genocide finding; U.S. actively supporting Netanyahu
• Public: Strong majority demands state commission; ongoing protests; bereaved families boycotting government committee
The government's limited inquiry may yield updates by late December 2025, but skepticism persists. As the Israel Democracy Institute noted: "A state commission of inquiry will, without a doubt, eventually be formed" — if not by this government, then by the next. The question remains whether accountability will come soon enough to restore public trust and prevent future failures.
Sources: Times of Israel, Haaretz, PBS, CNN, NBC News, Al Jazeera, Israel Democracy Institute, Israel Policy Forum, OHCHR, ICC official documents, Washington Post, Axios, Jerusalem Post, i24NEWS, VINnews, Compiled by Gemini 3.0, Grok 4.1 and Claude Opus 4.5
|
