Here is Intel at USB conference. Intel exec presented quite a lot of factual information (way more than Lisa the day before). We can probably learn more about AMD business from this Intel presentation than Lisa's.
I am not remembering everything that was said, because it was a lot, but some bullet points:
- Majority of Intel output is still Intel 10 and Intel 7. Both in server (!!!) and client. This means majority of Intel server output is Sapphire Rapid, Emerald, but also Ice Lake (!!!) the only product Intel 10. Hard to imagine. Ice Lake was outclassed by EPYC Rome, and AMD shipped 3 generations after Rome. On Client, it means Alder Lake and Raptor Lake
- Intel is short capacity everywhere, Intel 7 and Intel 10 are just the worst. Intel is shifting this Intel 7 capacity from client to server.
- Intel is supplying the majority of the very low end. Intel said AMD doesn't even compete there. Intel is raising prices on these lowest end parts and Intel is also abandoning this segment of the market, as a strategic shift.
- as an example Intel is rising prices on Raptor Lake and lowering prices of (expensive) Arrow Lake to induce the OEMs to move this way. But if Intel is removing product from the lowest price segment, the customers will just have to move to higher segment where AMD is competing, so AMD may capture some of this demand from this dynamic
- but Intel is undershipping period, in all segments, because Intel just does not have enough product to ship. So some of this demand can fall in AMD's lap just because AMD does have product to ship.
- as far as EUV steppers, at this very moment, it may not be the bottleneck. The only place Intel can have it deployed is in Ireland fab making Intel 3 and Intel 4 product. These products are Meteor Lake, that market does not like and newish server parts - Sierra Forest and Granite Rapids. There are the only product that are demand limited.
- new EUV equipment is going to Arizona Fab 52, but you can't go from 0 to 30k wpm in a day. Intel is going to ramp this capacity in 2 to 3 years, between 2025 and 2028, processing only 2k to 5k wpm in early 2026
- right now, Intel explicitly said they are adding capacity for foundry, only for Intel Internal use. Will only build capacity when clients place orders. So Intel is actually cutting the CapEx
- Intel now explicitly confirmed cancellation of small socket Diamond Rapids. Saying Intel was just not going to be competitive with those parts. Something I don't understand, how Intel concluded that it can't compete with small socket DMR vs. small socket Venice but can compete with big socket DMR.
- Intel played down Falcon Shores, saying that Intel is not going to duke it out in the Training market. Probably writing on the wall for Falcon Shores and Intel in high end of the market
- Said Intel would like to compete more in ASICs
- back on the Client, said Intel was planning on scaling down the Lunar Lake, but instead has to increase Lunar Lake (and Arrow Lake) both of which are 100% TSMC.
- Yields - still not where Intel wants them to be, but said that the month to month yield improvements are now more orderly instead of unpredictable in the past
Webcast
Intel - 1742810 |
