Hi Hawk,
Look at the high top spotter and an equally low bottomspotter both seemingly diverging at extremes.
To see a similar situation go to the time frame marked on your chart @ 7/02/25 - a huge bounce off the mid time.
Note that during the last 26 days there were only 7days where Aydis was positive. An average daily positive score of +1.038
During those same 26 days there were 19 days where the score was 0 or negative. An average daily negative score of -2.07.
Almost 4 times as many days where Aydis was negative and almost twice as negative of a score as the 7 days of positive numbers.
Negative Aydis = retail selling and market maker accumulation.
With bottom spotter so deep I'm thinking we'll see negative days on Monday and Tuesday at the worst. When market makers have accumulated their needed discounted shares , they'll flip on Wednesday to be in price markup stage and beginning markup selling into the retail buyers.
The holiday seasonality is usually a positive force - starting mid December.
CNN's Fear and Greed index has been ranging in Fear and Extreme Fear.
Friday's trade hit 48,133 djia's high of 48431 and frittered away quickly into the close.
I'm expecting a run up into the 48500 range (which could well be a double top). Keep in mind Friday was the New Moon, Both Christmas and New Years Day are week days, so December's trade days are short. by 2 days. Procrastinators will be selling into light volume after Christmas, and big traders will not be trading = light volume.
With a Bradley turning Day on the day before Christmas (24th) and again on the 30th, with only two trading days in between the Holidays off, Im thinking we have a modest up move to a double top (marginally above 48,431 and roll over into tax loss selling in between the two Bradley days.
Then we are into a NEW YEAR, New Tax Breaks, New Corporate depreciation rules, New Fed Chair, and New Lower Rates to give car sales and home building (two very rate dependent laggard sectors in the economy. - pent up demand?)
Everything done by politicians will be to look good in the mid terms. A good market will be one of the desires.
Lower rates, greater employee productivity,AI, fiscal spending on chips and pharmaceuticals all are tailwinds. They will happen with lags, and I expect Wall Street will engineer a sizable dip before the lags work their way out as greater GDP becomes evident.
I can't help but think that the demand for commodities will go hand in hand with such a powerful boosts working in the US economy next year. Demand for energy generation will boost natural gas, coal, diesel, nuclear, construction materials of all sorts.
Lumber looks cheap here. I'm watching Weyerhaeuser WY (The country's largest producer of wood dimensional lumber) is hitting new 3 year lows. If mortgage rates continue their decline, WY and other lumber companies could benefit from higher demand for lumber. needed to build more housing of all types Especially so with tariffs on Canadian soft wood companies, famous for dumping in the USA. Something we chronically see in Wisconsin.
Happy Holidays to all!
We'll surely have a good 2025 and wish prosperity to all in 2026!
Bob
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