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Technology Stocks : The end of Moore's law - Poet Technologies
POET 5.870-1.3%12:40 PM EST

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To: toccodolce who wrote (1557)12/9/2025 11:21:57 AM
From: toccodolce1 Recommendation

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longz

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POET's Hybrid-Integrated 1.6T 2xFR4 Transmitter VS Competitors

1. How big of a step up is this?

Short answer:

It is a meaningful architecture-level advancement, not a small incremental upgrade. The key step-up is manufacturability at 1.6T, not raw optical performance.

Why this matters:

In 1.6T optical engines, the bottleneck is no longer the laser speed or modulator speed, the bottleneck is packaging complexity, EML shortages, yield, thermal density, and alignment cost.

POET’s transmitter directly attacks these bottlenecks:

What’s new / important here:

  1. Hybrid integration of 4× 200G EML arrays on a single interposer

    • No one else has shown multi-lane EML arrays bonded onto a passive platform with built-in MUX in a wafer-level flow.

    • Competitors rely on manual active-alignment + micro-optics.

  2. No wire-bonds at 100+ GHz signals

    • Industry wires up 1.6T engines using long RF paths ? more crosstalk, lower yield, higher power.

    • POET’s flip-chip RF layout is materially better for 100–150 GHz era optics.

  3. EML capacity improvement

    • EML shortages are real.

    • POET aggregates four EML arrays effectively, reducing required individual chip count and making better use of scarce InP.

  4. Wafer-scale, passive assembly of a full 1.6T PIC

    • Today the competitors assemble engines piece by piece (slow, expensive).

    • POET is pushing “optical semiconductorization” — the first real demonstration of a mass-production-ready 1.6T engine.

Bottom line:
This is not “faster optics.”
This is faster manufacturing of high-speed optics, which is the actual industry bottleneck.

2. Where is the rest of the industry right now?



Here is the competitive situation for 1.6T FR4 / 8×200G transmitters:Where POET sits:

  • The industry is nowhere close to wafer-scale 1.6T hybrid EML engines with built-in AWG MUX.POET is ahead in one very specific area:

  • High-volume manufacturable 1.6T optical engines.

Not necessarily ahead in raw photonics design, but ahead in packaging, integration, yield, and scalable assembly, which actually determines who ships volume.

3. Is POET ahead of competitors?

Yes, in packaging architecture for 1.6T FR4.

No one has published a wafer-scale hybrid-integrated 1.6T with:

  • EML arrays

  • integrated AWG MUX

  • flip-chip drivers

  • passive alignment only

  • no lenses

  • no wirebonds

  • <0.5 dB coupling loss

This is unique in the market right now.

What competitors do better:

  • Coherent and Lumentum have stronger raw photonic device performance (best-in-class EMLs).

  • Broadcom and Nvidia dominate DSP and link-level architectures.

What POET does better:

  • Manufacturing architecture

  • Cost, yield, scalability

  • Compact RF layout

  • Ability to mass-produce engines cheaply

For the next 5 years, manufacturability is more important than bleeding-edge photonics speeds.
So this advantage is commercially meaningful.

4. Is the market ready for this product NOW?

Yes.

The timing aligns with hyperscaler roadmaps:

  • 800G ramps 2024–2025

  • 1.6T starts sampling in 2025

  • 1.6T volume begins 2026–2027

  • Nvidia’s GB200 requires enormous bandwidth; next-gen architectures require 1.6T pluggables and 1.6T LPO.

Hyperscalers (AWS, Meta, Google, Nvidia) are already:

  • tendering 1.6T transceivers

  • evaluating engines

  • selecting manufacturing ecosystems

  • preparing for 1.6T testbeds

The biggest bottleneck for hyperscalers today:

They cannot manufacture enough 1.6T modules cheaply.

POET’s transmitter directly solves:

* yield * alignment cost * EML supply constraints * thermals * form factorYes, the market wants this.

5. Realistic assessment of competitive advantage

POET is NOT:

  • The only way to build a 1.6T transmitter.

  • Guaranteed to win sockets.

  • Technologically superior in every photonics dimension.

POET IS:

  • The only company showing mass-producible hybrid 1.6T architecture.

  • Offering the lowest-complexity, highest-yield 1.6T manufacturing path.

  • Directly aligned with hyperscaler cost and volume requirements.

That matters more than tiny optical-performance differences.

6. Summary (hard, direct)

  • How big is the step-up?

    • Large. It shifts 1.6T from lab prototypes to manufacturable engines.

  • How much better than competitors?

    • Better in packaging, cost, yield, EML scaling, and simplicity. Competitors still lead in raw device performance.

  • Is POET ahead?

    • Yes, in the part of the stack that matters for volume and cost.

  • Is the market ready for it?

    • Yes. Hyperscalers are preparing 1.6T ramps now and need manufacturable solutions.

  • Commercial significance:

    • If POET wins even a single major 1.6T design-in, it becomes a multi-billion-dollar business, because hyperscalers will buy millions of 1.6T engines per year.

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