Smart Glasses - another take
Second more agressive Market research source with AAPL entering the market .
Updated Qualcomm Smart Glasses Unit & Revenue Forecast
Using the assumptions we’ve built (Apple entering in 2026, Qualcomm SoC ASP ~$45 blended, global market growth per AR Insider vs Grand View Research), here’s a consolidated forecast for Qualcomm’s unit shipments and revenue through 2030.
Qualcomm Smart Glasses Forecast (Base Case)
Year
| Global Units (M)
| Apple Units (M)
| Qualcomm Units (M)
| QCOM Revenue @ $45 ASP (B)
| Notes
| 2025
| ~18M
| 0
| ~17M
| $0.77B
| Meta, Samsung, Xreal, Vuzix dominate; QCOM near 95% share.
| 2026
| ~25M
| ~3M
| ~21–22M
| $0.95–1.0B
| Apple enters; QCOM share drops to ~82–85%.
| 2027
| ~32M
| ~6M
| ~25–26M
| $1.13–1.17B
| Apple ramps; QCOM share ~72–75%.
| 2028
| ~38M
| ~9M
| ~28–29M
| $1.26–1.31B
| Samsung + Google/Xreal scale; Apple ~24% share.
| 2029 (AR Insider bullish)
| ~47M
| ~12M
| ~34–35M
| $1.53–1.58B
| Market accelerates; QCOM share ~70–72%.
| 2030 (Grand View conservative)
| ~41M
| ~13M
| ~27–28M
| $1.21–1.26B
| Slower growth; Apple ~30% share, QCOM ~65%.
| Key Insights
- Unit growth despite share erosion: Qualcomm’s shipments rise from ~17M in 2025 to ~27–35M by 2030, even as Apple captures 20–30% of the market.
- Revenue resilience: With blended ASP ~$45, Qualcomm’s annual smart glasses revenue grows from ~$0.8B in 2025 to $1.2–1.6B by 2030, depending on scenario.
- Bullish vs conservative:
- AR Insider (bullish): Higher TAM ? QCOM revenue ~$1.5–1.6B by 2029.
- Grand View (conservative): Smaller TAM ? QCOM revenue ~$1.2–1.3B by 2030.
- Apple’s impact: Apple’s entry trims QCOM’s share from ~95% (2025) to ~65–70% (2030), but absolute QCOM revenue still grows due to market expansion.
Strategic Takeaway
- Qualcomm remains the dominant SoC supplier outside Apple, with strong growth tied to Meta, Samsung, Google/Xreal, and enterprise OEMs.
- Apple’s late start reduces Qualcomm’s unit share, but not its absolute revenue trajectory.
- By 2030, Qualcomm’s smart glasses business could be a $1.2–1.6B annual segment, roughly 15–20% of device value per unit, consistent with earlier projections.
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