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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: E_K_S who wrote (78679)12/9/2025 7:47:40 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (2) of 78742
 
Rare Earths. I like METC, and I have a position.

I bought METC for its met coal properties. At current coal price, I wild-ass guess the stock might be worth $15. (Current METC price is about $16.25) If met coal rises, the stock should be worth more.

At some point last year they announced they might have some rare earths on their Wyoming property. The stock rose and fell somewhat. This year, they confirmed the discovery and disclosed detail plans to get funding and extract and process the rare earths. Well the stock then shot up from to $57+ from lows of the year ($6). I was rich! Well, until people realized 1) Just when is this mine/processing to generate revenue? Years from now. 2) Everybody remembered Mark Twain's admonition: a mine is "a hole in the ground owned by a liar." Soon I was back to being poor again as the stock collapsed.

Where we are now imo. The stock's about fairly valued for a met coal producer. There are two ways the stock might be viewed more favorably. 1) If demand for met coal increases over the next couple of years. This is possible for a couple of reasons. Foreign demand for steel. Not that many good quality met coal mines. 2). If, and as, the company reports progress in extracting/processing the rare earths it says it has, the stock should increase. A negative is that now it seems to me that almost every miner is saying, "Hey we got rare earths too."

Oh well, we shall see. I intend to hold on.
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