| | | Market Snapshot
| Dow | 47560.08 | -179.03 | (-0.38%) | | Nasdaq | 23576.52 | +30.58 | (0.13%) | | SP 500 | 6840.50 | -6.00 | (-0.09%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1486 | Dec 1234 | Vol 1.10 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2622 | Dec 2121 | Vol 7.23 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Energy, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Information Technology, Communication Services |
| | Weak: Health Care, Industrials, Real Estate, Financials, Materials |
Moving the Market
--Wait-and-see stance as the market anticipates tomorrow's FOMC decision
--Broad-based participation after yesterday's broad-based weakness
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Markets drift in tight range as investors brace for FOMC decision
09-Dec-25 16:25 ET
Dow -179.03 at 47560.08, Nasdaq +30.58 at 23576.52, S&P -6.00 at 6840.50
The stock market registered its second consecutive session of muted action this week as investors await the results of tomorrow's FOMC decision, which is widely expected to produce a 25-basis point rate cut along with guidance that the Fed is unlikely to ease again in the near term.
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and DJIA (-0.4%) spent the entirety of the session in a tight range near their unchanged levels, while the Russell 2000 (+0.2%) furthered its stretch of outperformance in December.
Advancers outpaced decliners by a roughly 5-to-4 clip on the NYSE and Nasdaq, an improvement from yesterday's negative breadth figures that reflects the subdued back-and-forth action that has defined the market over the past several sessions.
Five S&P 500 sectors finished higher, which was also an improvement from yesterday's action that saw only the information technology sector notch a gain. However, relatively subdued performances across the market's largest names limited the size of gains today.
The information technology sector (+0.2%) managed a more modest gain today, shaking off an opening loss. NVIDIA (NVDA 184.92, -0.64, -0.34%) traded lower despite President Trump stating via Truth Social that the company will be allowed to sell its advanced H200 chips in China, though the U.S. government will take 25% of the profits.
The consumer discretionary sector (+0.2%) also shook off an early loss, supported by Tesla (TSLA 445.18, +5.60, +1.27%) taking back some of yesterday's 3.4% slide. The stock was a standout across a quiet day for the mega-caps that saw the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finish flat.
The sector is also home to today's worst-performing S&P 500 name, AutoZone (AZO 3493.36, -273.60, -7.26%). The stock moved sharply lower after posting its sixth consecutive EPS miss.
Meanwhile, the energy sector (+0.7%) captured the widest gain despite crude oil futures settling today's session $0.58 lower (-1.0%) at $58.26 per barrel. Exxon Mobil (XOM 118.23, +2.25, +1.94%) captured a solid gain after updating its 2030 outlook, now targeting $25 billion of earnings growth and $35 billion of cash flow growth.
As for today's retreating sectors, losses were relatively modest, with only the health care sector (-1.0%) closing with a loss of 1.0% or wider. A majority of the sector's components traded lower, though CVS Health (CVS 78.22, +1.69, +2.21%) notched a nice gain after raising its FY25 outlook.
While the financials sector (-0.3%) did not finish with one of the widest losses, it was subject to one of the more notable intraday swings, moving lower after JPMorgan Chase (JPM 300.47, -14.74, -4.68%) disclosed projected 2026 firmwide expenses of approximately $105 billion. That figure represents roughly 11% growth over the projected 2025 expense base of about $95 billion and lands about 3.6% above current Wall Street expectations for 2026.
While today's action featured some notable stock-specific moves in reaction to earnings and guidance, things remained relatively quiet at the index level as the market awaits tomorrow's FOMC meeting. Several recent sessions of similar narratives leave the major averages mixed for the month of December, with all three indices within 1.0% of their unchanged month-to-date levels, reflecting a market in search of new catalysts heading into the end of the year.
U.S. Treasuries were lacking buyers today, who exercised restraint in front of the FOMC decision tomorrow. The 2-year note yield settled up three basis points to 3.61%, and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.18%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +22.1% YTD
- S&P 500: +16.3% YTD
- Russell 2000: +13.3% YTD
- DJIA: +11.8% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +5.7% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- The October JOLTS report showed 7.670 million job openings versus estimates that were closer to 7.200 million. Job openings in the year-ago period were 7.615 million. Job openings for September were estimated to be 7.658 million based on partial data for businesses that self-reported during the government shutdown and data collected in November after the shutdown.
- The September Leading Economic Index registered a 0.3% decline following an upwardly revised 0.3% decline (from -0.5%) for August.
Little changed ahead of FOMC decision, tech earnings
09-Dec-25 15:35 ET
Dow -155.32 at 47583.79, Nasdaq -30.40 at 23515.54, S&P -2.99 at 6843.51
[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to sit in a mixed fashion, little changed from previous levels shortly before the close.
Attention now turns to tomorrow's FOMC meeting, which is largely expected to result in a 25-basis-point rate cut, though investors anticipate a hawkish tilt towards further easing at the start of the new year.
The CME FedWatch Tool currently assigns an 87.4% probability to a rate cut at tomorrow's meeting but just a 23.2% probability to an additional cut in January. Those odds have changed very little over the past week, suggesting the possibility of a muted reaction if the decision and commentary fall in line with expectations.
After the close tomorrow, the market will receive one of the more highly anticipated earnings reports of the week from Broadcom (AVGO 404.36, +3.26, +0.81%). The stock holds a nice gain today, adding to yesterday's 2.8% advance that followed reports that Microsoft (MSFT 491.20, +0.18, +0.04%) is in talks to shift its custom chips business to Broadcom.
Major averages still mixed ahead of closing bell
09-Dec-25 15:00 ET
Dow -115.80 at 47623.31, Nasdaq +36.67 at 23582.61, S&P +0.92 at 6847.42
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (flat), Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%), and DJIA (-0.2%) remain in close proximity to their flatlines with an hour left in today's session.
The Wall Street Journal reports that NVIDIA's (NVDA 184.28, -1.28, -0.69%) H200 chips will undergo a security review before being exported to China. The stock traded higher in the premarket following President Trump's announcement that the company will be able to sell the advanced chip to China but has spent the entirety of today's session seated with a modest loss. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (-0.1%) is slightly lower amid a slower day for chipmakers.
Separately on the trade front, CNBC reports that China has resumed its purchase of American soybeans, though at a pace that is short of President Trump's target.
S&P 500 Edges Higher; NEM, FFIV, NRG Lead Gains While Rollins Hits Three-Week Low
09-Dec-25 14:30 ET
Dow -129.26 at 47609.85, Nasdaq +51.15 at 23597.09, S&P +2.65 at 6849.15
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.04%) is in second place on Tuesday afternoon, up about 3 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Newmont Corporation (NEM 93.34, +4.34, +4.88%), F5 Networks (FFIV 257.11, +8.90, +3.59%), and NRG Energy (NRG 169.73, +5.62, +3.42%) pepper the top of the average. FFIV moves higher after announcing an expanded collaboration with NetApp (NTAP 117.06, -0.47, -0.40%), while NRG rallies after UBS initiated the stock at Buy, tgt $211 this morning citing strong cash flow and 27% upside.
Meanwhile, Rollins (ROL 58.02, -2.52, -4.16%) slides in the standings, hitting a three-week low; the company hosted its 2025 Sell-Side Analyst Conference this morning.
Gold edges higher on softer dollar, Fed-cut hopes despite mixed rate signals
09-Dec-25 13:55 ET
Dow -109.20 at 47629.91, Nasdaq +63.75 at 23609.69, S&P +6.70 at 6853.20
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (+0.27%) is today's best-performing major average, up about 64 points.
Gold futures settled $17.30 higher (+0.4%) at $4,235/oz, reflecting support from a softer dollar and growing expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, which boosted investor appetite for bullion. Safe-haven demand also helped, though higher Treasury yields and lingering hawkish Fed signals kept the move in check.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is up +0.1% to $99.26.
AutoZone Slips on Sixth Straight EPS Miss, Though Several Tailwinds Remain In Place (AZO)
AutoZone (AZO) is heading lower after reporting its Q1 (Nov) results this morning. The company missed EPS expectations, which declined 4.6% to $31.04 and now marks six consecutive quarters of falling short of estimates. Revenue increased 8.2% yr/yr to $4.63 bln, which was just in line with expectations.
- The EPS miss was largely driven by another non-cash LIFO charge of $98 mln tied to higher costs and tariffs. This pressured gross margin, which declined 203 bps to 51%, of which 212 bps came from the LIFO charge, partially offset by underlying merchandise margin improvements.
- Company-wide comp sales increased +4.7% in CC (+5.1% in Q4), with domestic comps +4.8% (+4.8% in Q4) and international comps +3.7% in CC (+7.2% in Q4).
- In the U.S., commercial sales continue to accelerate, increasing 14.5% yr/yr and building on the momentum seen since Q2 FY25. Domestic DIY comps slowed to +1.5% from +2.2% in Q4, which management primarily attributed to less favorable weather.
- Internationally, while management noted it continues to gain share, the slowdown in comps was tied to softer economic growth, particularly in Mexico, though it remains committed to accelerating store openings and sees international as a meaningful long-term growth driver.
- Growth remains underpinned by an accelerated store opening pace and ongoing investments in hubs and mega hubs, which are growing faster than the balance of the chain and enhancing parts availability and delivery speed.
- Additionally, management still sees tailwinds for the remainder of FY26 from its growth initiatives and favorable macro car-park dynamics (an aging vehicle fleet and a tougher new/used car market).
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
AZO's Q1 tells a familiar two-sided story. It delivered solid top-line growth and healthy comps which, while a bit lower than last quarter, were still respectable. On the other side, another EPS miss, driven by a sizable $98 mln LIFO charge and higher growth-related expenses, extends a now-lengthy streak of falling short of estimates and keeps a cloud over margin visibility, even if LIFO remains more of an accounting and cost-timing headwind than a structural issue. At the same time, underlying trends are still encouraging, with accelerating commercial growth, positive DIY and international comps, and several tailwinds, including supportive car-park dynamics, new hubs and mega hubs, and international expansion, that could all serve as meaningful growth levers once LIFO pressures and elevated spending ease.
Ollie’s Heads Lower as Solid Q3 and Guidance Raise Fall Short of Elevated Value Expectations (OLLI)
Ollie's Bargain Outlet (OLLI) is heading lower today after reporting its Q3 (Oct) results this morning. The company narrowly beat EPS expectations, while revenue was just in line, though it increased 18.6% yr/yr to $613.6 mln, its strongest growth in over four years. Additionally, the company raised its full year guidance for EPS, revenue and comps to $3.81-3.87, $2.648-2.655 bln, and +3.2-3.5%, respectively.
- Comps came in at +3.3% (+2.6% in Q1; +5.0% in Q2), driven by a mid-single-digit increase in transactions, partially offset by lower average ticket as OLLI leaned into sharp closeout deals and value-focused consumables.
- Strength was led by food, seasonal, hardware, stationery, and lawn and garden, as consumers continue to prioritize necessities, seek value, and buy closer to need. It noted customers are still responding well to expanded seasonal and gift assortments.
- Specifically, younger and higher income shoppers were the fastest-growing cohorts in Q3, a trend management ties to its shift toward digital marketing, consumers seeking value, and customers trading down.
- Growth continues to be fueled by accelerated new store openings (32 in Q3 and 86 YTD), and ongoing expansion of the Ollie's Army loyalty program, where new sign-ups increased 30% yr/yr.
- Looking ahead, OLLI said comp trends since early October have been strong, and it feels good about its momentum into the heart of the holiday season, which is typically its largest quarter.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
Despite the strong quarterly report from OLLI, shares are heading lower. The standouts this quarter were solid comps and clear benefits from its growth initiatives in new stores and digital, and management was upbeat about the holiday season, noting healthy comp trends through October and continued momentum. The stock's weakness likely reflects elevated expectations, especially with other value retailers like FIVE (comp+14.3%), DLTR (+4.2%), and DG (+2.5%) posting strong Q3 results, while OLLI's comps softened from Q2, its Q4 comp guide of +2-3% shows limited acceleration, and revenue only came in line. That said, the report fits the broader theme that consumers continue to prioritize value, and OLLI still seems well positioned to capture that trend as it heads into the heart of the holiday season.
CVS rallies as company raises FY25 EPS for fourth time and sets multi-year growth path (CVS)
CVS Health (CVS) boosted its FY25 outlook again, lifting EPS to $6.60–$6.70 from $6.55–$6.65, and revenue to at least $400 bln from $397.3 bln, marking its fourth EPS upward revision and sending shares sharply higher. FY26 EPS guidance of $7.00-$7.20 aligns with consensus, while FY26 revenue of at least $400 bln trails expectations, suggesting measured top-line growth against tighter utilization trends. Still, long-term goals impressed: CVS now targets mid-teens adjusted EPS CAGR through 2028, supported by improving claims costs, higher-margin care delivery, PBM repricing tailwinds, cost discipline, and scaling of its value-based primary care platform.
- CVS’s Health Care Benefits segment continues to push the recovery theme despite elevated medical costs. The 92.8% MBR in Q3 illustrated lingering utilization pressure, but sequential improvement supports management's confidence in 2025/2026 margin expansion.
- Health Services (Caremark PBM) remains a primary earnings engine, aided by contract repricing, client renewals, specialty drug mix, and tighter formulary management lifting visibility into 2026.
- Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness benefits from prescription volume growth, stronger front-store trends, better vaccine utilization, and retail cost optimization -- a steady pillar bolstering FY25’s raised EPS guide.
- FY26 EPS of $7.00–$7.20 looks achievable but not aggressive, signaling CVS is pacing growth through medical-cost moderation, efficiency gains, and integration benefits from Oak Street/Aetna.
- Long-term EPS CAGR in the mid-teens through 2028 rests on scaling value-based care economics, Caremark repricing benefits compounding, clinic maturation, and structurally better utilization trends.
- Despite Oak Street Health softness and care-delivery margin drag, CVS has reiterated progress on reducing operating losses and achieving breakeven path visibility by 2026.
- Another swing factor emerged today: “Engagement as a Service”, a tech-led consumer activation platform that could expand digital care touchpoints, drive script retention, deepen PBM relationships, and improve outcomes.
- High-margin software revenue with subscription economics could materially lift profitability beginning 2026.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
CVS enters 2025 with tangible momentum, highlighted by four EPS raises, strengthening utilization trends, and PBM repricing entering the model at scale, and investors are finally pricing in execution over skepticism. The FY26 revenue guide is light, but cost leverage, benefit-ratio normalization, and clinic turnaround potential underpin earnings power rather than pure top-line expansion. “Engagement as a Service” is the most under-appreciated lever: recurring technology revenue and improved member retention could structurally re-rate margins beyond retail and insurance cyclicality. Near-term headwinds remain -- MBR normalization is not linear, Oak Street requires discipline, and FY26 isn’t a breakout year on revenue -- but the multi-year EPS CAGR framework signals confidence seldom seen in this story since the Aetna deal.
Toll Brothers slides lower as FY26 outlook disappoints, signaling lack of spring rebound (TOL)
Toll Brothers (TOL) posted mixed 4Q25 results with EPS significantly missing while revenue of $3.42 bln slightly beat expectations, driving shares sharply lower amid soft FY26 guidance and margin pressure. FY26 deliveries outlook of 10,300-10,700 homes fell short of expectations, signaling caution for another tough year despite a strong balance sheet.
- In 4Q25, TOL delivered 3,443 homes, flat yr/yr but beating guidance of 3,350, with revenue up 5% to $3.4 bln. EPS of $4.58 missed expectations largely due to the delayed Apartment Living sale.
- FY26 guidance assumes no demand improvement and starts from a 4,647-home backlog, bridging to about 10,500 deliveries via specs (3,000 under construction plus 1,500 starts) and 1,500 build-to-order homes.
- Margins continue to face pressure with 4Q25 adjusted home sales gross margin at 27.1% due to higher incentives (about $80k per home versus $68k yr/yr).
- TOL guided for home sales gross margin of 26.25% for 1Q26 and 26.0% for FY26 despite flat land costs and modest construction deflation.
- Trends remain choppy but stable as Q4 orders dipped slightly yr/yr yet improved sequentially.
- Early FY26 deposits held flat to a strong prior period, and affluent buyers (26% cash) with low cancellations support the $1 mln price point.
- TOL's strategy emphasizes specs at about 54% of deliveries (similar for FY26), multifamily exit for core focus, 8-10% community growth, and $650 mln buybacks.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
TOL's Q4 execution was solid but overshadowed by conservative FY26 guide and margin reset, reflecting affordability headwinds and no assumed spring rebound. Incentives now fully explain the 130-bps gross margin drop to 26% for FY26, risking further pressure if specs linger unsold. Yet TOL's luxury niche, coastal strength, and capital recycling position it well for upside if rates ease or demand firms. The EPS miss was largely timing-related from the Apartment Living delay, not a core operations red flag. With net debt-to-capital in the mid-teens and robust liquidity, TOL maintains flexibility to outperform if market conditions improve modestly.
Comfort Systems in the S&P 500 Spotlight; Highlights Strong Industrial and Tech Demand (FIX)
Comfort Systems (FIX) is sitting comfortably in the S&P 500 spotlight following news late Friday that it will be added to the index as part of the S&P's quarterly rebalance, effective December 22. Shares for this mechanical, electrical, and plumbing services company have been surging this year, up about 135% YTD and over 260% from its April low, as impressive quarterly results and robust demand across its key end markets have driven the stock sharply higher after the last two reports. The inclusion typically brings incremental, largely mechanical demand from funds benchmarked to the S&P 500, while also raising the company's visibility among institutional investors.
- FIX reported impressive Q3 results in late October, with revenue increasing 35% yr/yr to $2.45 bln, gross margin expanding to 24.8% from 21.1%, and EPS more than doubling to $8.25. It ended the quarter with a record backlog of $9.4 bln, a 65% yr/yr increase, or 15% sequentially, of which all was same-store.
- Growth is being driven by strong industrial demand (65% of revenue for the first nine months), including technology work now at 42% of total revenue, up from 32% a year ago, as data center projects become an increasingly important driver in both traditional construction and the modular business.
- FIX maintains a balanced mix across end markets, with institutional customers at 22% of revenue and commercial at 13%, while construction still drives 86% of sales, including 17% from modular. Service revenue now represents 14% of total revenue, adding a recurring and stable stream alongside its large project work.
- Management continues to see growth and strong results into 2026, calling for same-store growth in the low- to mid-teens and margins within recent ranges, supported by its record pipeline, ongoing modular expansion, and recent acquisitions.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
Comfort Systems' move into the S&P 500 gives the stock both added prestige and a boost from index-linked buying, but it also puts a brighter spotlight on a stock that has been surging this year after a stretch of record results and rapidly growing backlog. The company has evolved into a player for more complex MEP, modular, and automation projects, which ties it into more attractive themes like data centers and energy-efficient buildings rather than just commercial HVAC. At the same time, FIX is still tied to nonresidential construction and project cycles, and after such a big run, investors will want to see it keep converting strong demand and a record backlog into solid growth and healthy margins to support the stock's higher valuation.
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