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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Madharry who wrote (78686)12/10/2025 9:50:18 AM
From: Madharry  Read Replies (3) of 78742
 
re HVAC makers:

Here is a comparison of recent DCF valuations to the current share prices for the major publicly traded HVAC companies:

Company (Ticker)Recent Stock Price (Approx.)DCF Fair Value Estimate (Intrinsic Value)DCF Indication vs. Price
Trane Technologies (TT)$\text{\$399.00}$$\text{\$308.34}$ to $\text{\$330.00}$Overvalued by $\text{23\%}$ to $\text{29\%}$
Carrier Global (CARR)$\text{\$54.29}$$\text{\$47.58}$ to $\text{\$75.85}$Undervalued (by $\text{19.8\%}$ or $\text{25\%}$) or Overvalued (by $\text{11\%}$)
Lennox International (LII)$\text{\$487.29}$ to $\text{\$503.43}$$\text{\$393.74}$ to $\text{\$537.00}$Overvalued by $\text{9.2\%}$ to $\text{19\%}$
Johnson Controls (JCI)$\text{\$113.00}$ to $\text{\$115.77}$$\text{\$100.89}$ to $\text{\$102.00}$Overvalued by approximately $\text{10\%}$ to $\text{14.3\%}$
?? Key Observations
  • Trane (TT), Lennox (LII), and Johnson Controls (JCI) are generally indicated as overvalued based on their Discounted Cash Flow valuations, suggesting their current share prices are trading above the estimated intrinsic value calculated from future cash flows.

  • Carrier (CARR) shows a varied DCF result, with some models suggesting it is undervalued by as much as $\text{25\%}$, while another model suggests it is $\text{11\%}$ overvalued. This highlights how sensitive DCF models are to the underlying assumptions used.

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