The latest odds I read suggested about a 60% probability the tariffs will be reversed by the Supremes.
The biggest roadblock to this is the Federalist views on the court, which are moving towards cementing an all-powerful Executive branch in ways that would make John Adams and Alexander Hamilton proud.
If they go by the law, the tariffs should be reversed plain and simple. If they go by their biases and idealist goals, then they may remain in place.
The administration is already set and ready for replacement tariffs using other statutes. Section 122, Section 232, and Section 301 are all still available even if the emergency tariffs are struck down by the Supremes.
Section 232 has already been used on steel, aluminum, light vehicles, furniture, and semiconductors. These tariffs are sticky, but you need to be specific.
However, the administration has already been stretching the definition of things like steel by saying if you have a steel screw in a plastic vibrator, the entire thing is called steel and the steel tariff applies to the whole thing.
This goes against over 100-years of US Customs law, but they don't care. They just want to tax any and all imports, as it's a hidden $2,600/year tax on households that is intangible on the surface, but not in the family budget. It's a sneaky tax that is packaged in a boatload of lies about bringing jobs back to the US and other BS, which is not happening. It's costing jobs on the whole and lowering the standard of living in the US by making things more expensive.
However, you can't tell people that as it's a belief system. You can't penetrate belief with things like facts and truth. It's a waste of time, and scientific studies confirm this. When you present a person who has strongly held beliefs with facts that contradict those beliefs, they double down on the beliefs rather than consider the facts and truth. |
