| | | Market Snapshot
| Dow | 48703.80 | +646.26 | (1.34%) | | Nasdaq | 23593.89 | -60.30 | (-0.25%) | | SP 500 | 6900.99 | +14.32 | (0.21%) | | 10-yr Note |
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| | NYSE | Adv 1866 | Dec 891 | Vol 1.22 bln | | Nasdaq | Adv 2630 | Dec 2066 | Vol 8.45 bln |
Industry Watch
| Strong: Materials, Financials, Health Care, Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Utilities, Industrials |
| | Weak: Information Technology, Communication Services, Energy, |
Moving the Market
--Tech names move lower following revenue-miss disappointment from Oracle (ORCL)
--Cyclical sectors continue to outperform following yesterday's rate cut
--DJIA notches all-time intraday high
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Small-caps and cyclicals outperform amid tech weakness
11-Dec-25 16:30 ET
Dow +646.26 at 48703.80, Nasdaq -60.30 at 23593.89, S&P +14.32 at 6900.99
[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market delivered an eventful session, with cyclical and defensive names extending yesterday’s rate-cut momentum to lift the DJIA (+1.3%) to a record high. At the same time, weakness in tech and other mega-cap names following Oracle’s (ORCL 198.64, -24.37, -10.93%) disappointing results kept the S&P 500 (+0.2%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) subdued, though the S&P 500 still managed to log a record close.
The smaller-cap Russell 2000 (+1.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.0%) continued on their run of recent outperformance as the Fed's rate cut and softer policy tone encouraged renewed interest in domestically focused, rate-sensitive names.
The information technology sector (-0.6%) spent the majority of the session as the biggest laggard, as Oracle's revenue miss and lighter-than-expected free cash flow weighed on other mega-cap names across the AI trade.
NVIDIA (NVDA 180.96, -2.82, -1.53%) finished lower, with the broader PHLX Semiconductor Index closing with a 0.8% loss. Broadcom (AVGO 406.96, -6.01, -1.46%) also traded lower ahead of its earnings report this afternoon, which investors will look to for a boost in AI sentiment.
While big tech certainly limited gains at the index level, it is worth noting that the information technology sector mounted an impressive intraday move after trading over 2.0% lower this morning, a move that was pivotal in getting the S&P 500 across its flatline and notching a record close.
The communication services sector (-1.0%) finished with the widest loss, as Alphabet (GOOG 313.75, -7.25, -2.26%) was burdened by today's mega-cap weakness, without a comeback effort this afternoon.
Dow component Walt Disney (DIS 111.48, +2.64, +2.43%) still notched a solid gain after news that the company struck a licensing deal with OpenAI that will allow some 200 Disney characters to be used in the company's short-form generative AI video platform, Sora. As part of the agreement, Disney will also be investing $1 billion in OpenAI.
The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 0.3% lower, contributing to the underperformance of the market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.2%) relative to the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.8%).
Meanwhile, the energy sector (-0.4%) finished with a more modest loss as crude oil futures settled today's session $0.92 lower (-1.6%) at $57.61 per barrel.
While weakness in mega-cap tech names certainly stifled growth in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, the broader market put up another solid performance in the wake of yesterday's FOMC meeting.
Cyclical sectors, such as the materials (+2.2%) and financials (+1.8%) sectors, outperformed again as investors rotated into sectors that benefit from a more accommodative monetary policy backdrop.
Mosaic (MOS 25.20, +1.44, +6.08%) captured one of the widest gains across S&P 500 names after reports that a Ukrainian drone strike caused a large fire at a prominent Russian mineral fertilizer plant.
Visa (V 345.65, +19.92, +6.12%) notched a similar gain, catching an upgrade from Bank of America Securities to Buy from Neutral this morning.
The defensive health care (+1.0%), utilities (+0.7%), and consumer staples (+0.7%) sectors also caught a solid rotational bid today amid the weakness in tech names.
Managed care names such as Elevance Health (ELV 360.18, +19.14, +5.61%), Centene (CNC 40.47, +1.80, +4.65%), and Molina Healthcare (MOH 166.94, +6.42, +4.00%) traded sharply higher following headlines that a Republican-backed healthcare plan to redirect Affordable Care Act subsidies from insurance companies to Americans failed by a Senate vote of 51-48.
Eli Lilly (LLY 1009.14, +15.50, +1.56%) also notched a solid gain after announcing positive topline results from its Phase 3 TRIUMPH-4 clinical trial evaluating the weight-loss effects of retatrutide, its investigational "triple G" agonist.
Attention now shifts to Broadcom's earnings, which could influence the tone around chipmakers and AI, while the post-FOMC rotation into cyclicals and defensives continues to shape the market's underlying strength.
U.S. Treasuries extended their midweek bounce on Thursday, though the advance found some intraday resistance, which left yields on 5-year and longer tenors above their opening levels. The 2-year note yield settled down four basis points to 3.53%, and the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.14%.
- Nasdaq Composite: +22.2% YTD
- S&P 500: +17.3% YTD
- Russell 2000: +16.2% YTD
- DJIA: +14.5% YTD
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +8.8% YTD
Reviewing today's data:
- Weekly Initial Claims 236K; Prior was revised to 192K from 191K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.838 mln; Prior was revised to 1.937 mln from 1.939 mln
- The key takeaway from the report is that, on balance, it doesn't point to a material weakening in the labor market.
- September Trade Balance -$52.8 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$61.7 bln); Prior was revised to -$59.3 bln from -$59.6 bln
- The key takeaway from the report is that the narrower deficit was the byproduct of exports being $8.4 billion more than August exports and imports being $1.9 billion more than August imports.
- September Wholesale Inventories 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%); Prior -0.1%
Broadcom to report earnings after the close
11-Dec-25 15:30 ET
Dow +659.25 at 48716.79, Nasdaq -87.89 at 23566.30, S&P +8.46 at 6895.13
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%), and DJIA (+1.4%) remain mixed, a touch off of session highs just before the close.
After the closing bell, attention will turn to Broadcom's (AVGO 408.15, -4.82, -1.17%) earnings release, which arrives at a delicate moment for semiconductor sentiment. Oracle's (ORCL 199.63, -23.38, -10.48%) cloud disappointment last night has injected a bit of caution into the AI narrative, putting more weight on Broadcom to demonstrate that AI ASIC demand remains both strong and broadening. Guidance—especially any early look at FY26—will be the key catalyst. Investors will watch closely for updated commentary on AI backlog durability, VMware trajectory, and non-AI semiconductor stabilization.
Meanwhile, Costco (COST 882.26, +7.85, +0.90%) and lululemon athletica (LULU 185.00, -2.62, -1.40%) are also set to report after the close.
Technology sector significantly improved from previous levels
11-Dec-25 14:55 ET
Dow +667.58 at 48725.12, Nasdaq -50.76 at 23603.43, S&P +15.96 at 6902.63
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%), and DJIA (+1.3%) continue to steadily chart session highs as the market enters the final hour of the session.
The information technology sector (-0.5%) still weighs on the market, though it is substantially improved from earlier lows that saw the sector hold a loss wider than 2.0%.
Several of the sector's largest components, including Apple (AAPL 277.89, -0.89, -0.32%) and NVIDIA (NVDA 180.66, -3.12, -1.70%), have shed nearly half of their earlier losses. Oracle (ORCL 201.55, -21.46, -9.62%) has clawed back roughly a third of its early loss, though it remains the worst-performing S&P 500 name.
Elsewhere, Fair Isaac (FICO 1825.12, +72.88, +4.16%) holds the widest gain in the sector, with Adobe (ADBE 355.02, +11.89, +3.47%) also adding support after a solid earnings report.
As previously noted, the DJIA notched a record intraday high earlier in the session. The S&P 500 currently trades above its all-time closing high level from late October (6,890.89).
S&P 500 rises as RCL, MOS, and TKO lead; cruise prices, fertilizer supply, and TKO deal drive gains
11-Dec-25 14:30 ET
Dow +632.49 at 48690.03, Nasdaq -68.05 at 23586.14, S&P +11.35 at 6898.02
[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.16%) is in second place on Thursday afternoon, up about 11 points.
Briefly, S&P 500 constituents Royal Caribbean (RCL 278.72, +18.34, +7.04%), Mosaic (MOS 25.29, +1.54, +6.48%), and TKO Group Holdings (TKO 205.27, +8.33, +4.23%) dot the top of the standings. RCL and cruise peers rally as a Bernstein analyst said their tracker showed cruise pricing stabilizing, Q4 guidance on track, and a $2 bln buyback boosting investor confidence, MOS hits three-week highs as geopolitical supply disruption provides a lift, while TKO announced a multi-year Ram partnership across WWE, UFC, and PBR boosts revenue visibility, showcases TKO’s brand-monetization power, and strengthens fan engagement across its properties.
Meanwhile, The Trade Desk (TTD 37.19, -2.03, -5.18%) is underperforming; we're seeing a target cut to $40 (from $50) at Jefferies citing margin pressures and AI disintermediation risks.
Gold Jumps 2% to $4,313 as Softer Dollar and Dovish Fed Bets Spur Safe-Haven Demand
11-Dec-25 14:00 ET
Dow +608.64 at 48666.18, Nasdaq -119.16 at 23535.03, S&P +3.03 at 6889.70
[BRIEFING.COM] The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (-0.50%) is in last place on Thursday afternoon, albeit decently off morning lows of -1.46%.
Gold futures settled $88.30 higher (+2.0%) at $4,313/oz, as a softer dollar and renewed expectations for Fed rate cuts boosted demand for non-yielding assets. A dovish tone from policymakers and lingering macro uncertainty also fueled safe-haven buying across precious metals.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index is down -0.4% to $98.23.
Eli Lilly rallies as Retatrutide validated as company's "heavy artillery" for severe obesity (LLY)
Eli Lilly (LLY) is rallying following the release of positive topline results from its Phase 3 TRIUMPH-4 clinical trial evaluating retatrutide, its investigational "triple G" agonist. The trial, which studied the drug in participants with obesity or overweight and knee osteoarthritis (OA), demonstrated unprecedented efficacy. Retatrutide achieved up to 28.7% mean weight loss and met key secondary endpoints for pain relief, potentially positioning it as a functional cure for obesity-related joint degradation and a viable alternative to bariatric surgery.
- Participants on the highest dose of retatrutide achieved a mean weight reduction of 28.7% (approx. 71.2 lbs) at the trial's conclusion, significantly outperforming the 15-20% benchmarks set by current GLP-1/GIP therapies like LLY's own Zepbound.
- The study met its primary and key secondary endpoints for knee osteoarthritis, showing statistically significant improvements in the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain scores compared to placebo. This data supports a potential label expansion for treating OA symptoms directly via weight management.
- The safety profile was consistent with the incretin class, with gastrointestinal (GI) issues being the most common adverse events. While generally well-tolerated, discontinuation rates were noted to be correlated with baseline BMI, suggesting the potency of the triple-agonist mechanism may require careful titration.
- Retatrutide targets the "Triple G" receptors (GLP-1, GIP, and Glucagon), a mechanism designed to burn fat more aggressively than appetite suppression alone. This positions the drug as a premium option for patients with higher BMI (Class II/III obesity) or specific comorbidities like OA and obstructive sleep apnea.
- With TRIUMPH-4 results securing the safety/efficacy profile, LLY is expected to proceed with global regulatory submissions in 2026, setting the stage for a potential commercial launch late next year or early 2027.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
LLY's TRIUMPH-4 data, showing 28.7% mean weight loss with retatrutide, redefines the obesity treatment standard, rivaling bariatric surgery. This validates the triple-agonist strategy and cements LLY’s competitive moat, positioning retatrutide as the "heavy artillery" for severe obesity and crucial comorbidities like osteoarthritis. The specific win in Knee OA is financially significant as it opens pathways for Medicare/insurance reimbursement based on a medical necessity (joint pain) rather than just cosmetic or preventative weight loss. However, the "intolerability" noted in some subsets suggests retatrutide may be reserved for a more specific patient population than Zepbound. Additionally, with LLY shares already trading at a premium valuation (1-year forward P/E of 31x), the market is pricing in near-perfect execution on manufacturing and supply chain ramp-up.
Ciena Powers Higher as AI Networking Demand Fuels Q4 Beat-and-Raise (CIEN)
Ciena (CIEN) is trading sharply higher after reporting its Q4 (Oct) results this morning, reaching new multi-decade highs. The optical networking systems and software provider comfortably beat expectations on the top and bottom line, with revenue increasing 20.1% yr/yr to $1.35 bln. Additionally, the company issued revenue guidance for Q1 and FY26 well above expectations at $1.35-1.43 bln and $5.7-6.1 bln (about 24% growth at the midpoint), respectively, with the full-year guide raised from its prior +17% growth.
- The strong guide reflects CIEN's view of "robust and durable" demand over the next several years, supported by accelerating cloud demand as orders continue to ramp and cloud providers, by management's account, have underinvested in their networks relative to other areas of AI infrastructure.
- Service provider demand is also steadily improving as carriers reinvest in transport infrastructure, including Managed Optical Fiber Networks (MOFN) tied to AI and cloud traffic, adding another leg to that multi-year growth story.
- This showed up clearly in the Q4 mix, with direct cloud provider revenue up 49% yr/yr and representing 42% of total sales, while non-telco customers accounted for 55% of revenue.
- Optical Networking revenue remained robust, increasing 68.7% yr/yr to $929.2 mln while Routing and Switching revenue increased 8.8% yr/yr to 118.4 mln.
- To meet this growing demand, CIEN is increasing investments and working with supply chain partners to scale capacity, guiding to FY26 capex of $250-275 mln, which is higher than its typical capital intensity.
- It also exited the year with about $5 bln in backlog, including $3.8 bln of hardware and software, supporting a large portion of its FY26 revenue and giving "exceptional" visibility into 2027.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
CIEN has been on a big run all year, and today's move just adds to it as the AI networking story keeps getting bigger. Management sounded very upbeat on the call, raising its FY26 outlook and leaning into the idea that it is becoming a key optical and interconnect partner for hyperscalers as they build out AI backbones. The growing tilt toward cloud and other non-telco customers, along with record orders and backlog, gives it much better visibility into 2026 and even 2027. That said, the valuation has gotten quite rich, now trading at a one-year forward P/E north of 50x, which sets the bar pretty high. Investors will want to see that this wave of AI-driven orders really does back up management's view of robust and durable demand over the next several years, and that it can turn that into sustained revenue and profit growth, not just a hot AI moment.
Oracle Cloud Shines, but Cash Flow Forecast Gets a Little Foggy (ORCL)
Oracle (ORCL -14%) is under heavy pressure following its Q2 (Nov) report, despite posting big EPS upside and its strongest revenue growth in 10 quarters. Revenue rose 14.2% yr/yr to $16.06 bln, but still fell short of analyst expectations, weighing on sentiment. The bigger concern: free cash flow (FCF) of $(10) bln, below street estimates and raising alarm about Oracle's ability to manage its sizable debt load.
- Cloud Momentum Remains a Bright Spot: Cloud infrastructure (OCI): +66% yr/yr in constant currency (accelerating from +54% yr/yr in Q1) as demand for AI training and inferencing remains robust. Total cloud revenue: $8 bln, up 33% yr/yr, despite lapping a tough +24% comp. Cloud now represents ~50% of overall revenue, marking a major shift in Oracle's business mix.
- RPO Growth Shows Deepening Backlog: A critical Oracle metric, Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), ended Q2 at $523.3 bln, up 433% yr/yr and 15% sequentially. Growth was not as explosive as Q1, but sequential expansion is still encouraging. RPO benefiting from large contracts with Meta, NVIDIA, and others, improving customer diversification.
- CapEx, Debt, and Cash Flow Concerns: CapEx: $12 bln in Q2 (vs $8.5 bln in Q1), driven by AI data center buildouts. Oracle also raised its FY26 CapEx forecast by $15 bln, likely further pressuring near-term FCF. Management says the vast majority of CapEx is revenue-generating equipment rather than land/buildings. But with Oracle having completed an $18 bln jumbo bond sale in Sept 2025, one of the largest tech debt issuances ever, investors are nervous about leverage even as Oracle seeks to preserve its investment-grade rating.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Oracle's Q2 results highlight a sharp contrast: surging cloud momentum and an enormous RPO backlog, but troubling near-term cash flow dynamics. The accelerating OCI growth (+66% CC) underscores Oracle's increasing relevance in AI infrastructure, particularly as hyperscalers and mega-cap customers diversify workloads. However, the $(10) bln FCF print and escalating CapEx commitments pose real concerns. Oracle's aggressive data center buildout is strategically sound, but the scale and timing create pressure on liquidity—especially following its $18 bln debt issuance. Given the leverage, CapEx trajectory, and below-consensus revenue this quarter, we see the stock as risky in the near term. Cloud strength is undeniable, but investors may demand clearer evidence that these massive commitments will translate into sustained, profitable growth.
Adobe's upbeat guidance and AI-driven ARR targets help ease growth and competitive concerns (ADBE)
Adobe (ADBE) edged past Q4 EPS and revenue expectations with non-GAAP EPS of $5.50 and revenue of $6.19 billion, up 14% and 10% yr/yr, respectively. More importantly, the company issued upside guidance for 1Q26 revenue of $6.25-$6.30 bln and FY26 revenue of $25.90-$26.10 bln. Last quarter's in-line Q4 guidance triggered a sharp stock selloff amid concerns over AI demand and competition, but this report shows reacceleration.
- Digital Media revenue hit a record $4.62 bln in Q4, up 11% yr/yr, with ending ARR of $19.2 billion also growing 11.5%.
- Digital Experience revenue rose 9% to $1.52 bln, with subscription revenue up 11% to $1.41 bln, driven by Adobe Experience Platform growth over 40% and demand for agentic tools like Brand Concierge.
- Total Adobe ARR ended FY25 at $25.2 bln (revalued to $25.66 bln entering FY26), up 11.5% yr/yr, with AI-influenced ARR now exceeding one-third of the book.
- ADBE targets double-digit FY26 ARR growth (10.2% or $2.6 bln net new), fueled by AI innovations like Firefly models (integrated with 25+ partners in apps like Photoshop), agentic interfaces in Acrobat/Express, Firefly Services/Foundry for custom enterprise models, and GenStudio for content supply chains.
- Generative credit consumption tripled qtr/qtr across Creative Cloud, Firefly, and Express, boosting upsell to higher plans and add-ons. Key wins include over 100 Firefly Services deals and strong MAU growth (Acrobat/Express at 750 million, up 20%).
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
ADBE posted solid Q4 results and raised FY26 guidance, signaling AI momentum amid prior skepticism on AI revenue acceleration. Record Digital Media ARR and tripled generative credit usage highlight traction in Firefly, agentic tools, and freemium-to-paid conversion, with over 75% of net new ARR from subscriptions/upsell. While FY26 ARR guide of 10.2% trails FY25's 11.5%, it marks the highest net new ARR target ever at $2.6 bln, underpinned by enterprise strength (25% more $10 mln+ ARR customers) and innovations like Firefly Foundry. Competitive pressures persist, but Semrush acquisition, closing 1H26, bolsters brand visibility in agentic web/LLMs. At a premium valuation, execution on AI monetization will determine if growth sustains beyond double-digits.
AeroVironment's top-line surge thwarted by margin collapse as BlueHalo acquisition weighs (AVAV)
AeroVironment (AVAV) is plunging lower following its 2Q26 report as investors look past spectacular top-line growth and focus instead on a sharp EPS miss, a dramatic gross margin reset, and a lower-than-expected FY26 outlook. While management highlighted record awards, bookings, and strong multiyear demand signals, the mix and margin dynamics tied to the BlueHalo acquisition, and a heavier services footprint materially changed the earnings profile versus what the market was expecting.
- Revenue surged 151% yr/yr to $472.5 mln, comfortably ahead of expectations, driven by the inclusion of BlueHalo and 21% organic growth from legacy AVAV.
- Gross margin was the key negative surprise, collapsing to 22% (27% adjusted) from roughly 39–41% a year ago.
- The margin compression was driven primarily by a higher mix of lower-margin service revenue, increased amortization and other non-cash purchase accounting expenses from BlueHalo, one-time operational inefficiencies tied to the Oracle Fusion ERP go-live and the U.S. government shutdown.
- Autonomous Systems revenue was $301.6 mln, led by 38% growth in Precision Strike and Counter-UAS (Switchblade 600, Titan) and strong JUMP 20 growth.
- Cyber and Directed Energy delivered revenue of $170.9 mln with 20%+ growth in Space and Directed Energy (LOCUST, laser comms) offset by weakness in Cyber and Mission Systems due to program discontinuations and shutdown impacts.
- Bookings were a standout at nearly $1.4 bln, supported by $3.5 bln of total contract awards, with funded backlog at $1.1 bln and unfunded at $1.8 bln, equating to 93% “visibility” to the revenue guidance midpoint once expected funding is included.
- AVAV still expects adjusted gross margin to improve through the year, targeting the high-30s by Q4 and low-30s for FY26 overall.
- FY26 EPS guidance was cut to $3.40–3.55, with the reduction driven mainly by a higher projected tax rate after the updated BlueHalo purchase price allocation, layered on top of mix-driven margin pressure.
- AVAV raised the low end of its revenue guidance to $1.95–2.00 bln (about 15% growth vs. pro forma FY25).
Briefing.com Analyst Insight
AVAV’s 2Q26 print underscores a classic growth-vs-profitability tug-of-war. The company is winning major programs and building a powerful, multi-domain defense tech platform, but the BlueHalo-driven mix shift and tax headwinds have reset the near-term EPS algorithm. The combination of a 17-point gross margin compression, lower EPS guidance, and a heavily back-weighted 4Q earnings ramp is overshadowing the record bookings and robust demand narrative, prompting a sharp reset in the stock after a strong run into the print. Even so, record awards, strong visibility, and expanding sole-source and multiyear positions in loitering munitions, counter-UAS, space, and directed energy suggest the long-term growth story remains intact if management can execute against the back-half ramp and deliver on the promised margin recovery.
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