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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 393.24+1.1%Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (218402)12/12/2025 6:26:42 PM
From: TobagoJack1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Julius Wong

   of 218474
 
bullish
zerohedge.com
Gold Is Loading at ATHs While Volatility Sleeps, This Is How Squeezes Start

BY THE MARKET EAR

FRIDAY, DEC 12, 2025 - 21:00

Top attack

Gold continues the move higher post breaking above the flag from early December. ATH is the obvious magnet. The trend line remains intact as well as the 21 and the 50 day. A close above ATHs and this risks squeezing much more. Don't forget that gold has basically been shaking out weak hands over the past 2 months during the range.



Source: LSEG Workspace

Seasonality

Gold seasonality starts now... and ends in a few months.



Source: Equity Clock

Missed it

We are still waiting for the complete stats with regards to net non commercials, but it sure looks they aren't long enough (last update per Nov 11).



Source: LSEG Workspace

Volatility

Gold volatility, GVZ, has stayed rather calm despite the latest move higher in gold. GVZ is not at bargain levels, but a possible aggressive push above ATHs will revive volatilities. Expressing gold direction via options is attractive given how volatilities are trading.



Source: LSEG Workspace

Following miners?

Performance YTD: GDX +155%, gold +65%. The gap is getting even wider...



Source: LSEG Workspace

Imagine...

Just a slight catch up to the explosive silver move?



Source: LSEG Workspace

Goldman loves it

1. Investor positioning in gold is still low, so any renewed diversification could push prices well above the inverted bank’s end-2026 $4,900 forecast. Current ETF holdings sit roughly at fair value based solely on Fed rates, with no additional allocation impulse priced in.

2. US gold ETFs make up just 0.17% of private portfolios, around 6bps below their 2012 peak - since equity and bond growth has far outpaced gold flows over the past decade.



Source: GS
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