RE: GOOG & LLM's in general
To be clear, I was making the same point that you were. Sorry, couldn't infere if you were stating I was supporting OpenAI vs. Gemini when I was very much in the Gemini camp at the time as making Google undervalued.
This is the ultimate risk isn't it? LLM will be a commodity and folks will move between whatever works so getting consistent cash flows from an LLM is going to be very, very, very difficult. Google can also integrate Gemini into everything they have and just leverage that. Gemini is basically already in their Search function and if you have an Android it's replaced that garbage Bixby already too.
I think OpenAI will likely fade either through the courts or through absorption by $MSFT or someone else. As I shared on post 78569 OpenAI has a ton of concentration risk with many top companies and if they can't deliver then to not expect a drag here is silly.
December 12th, 2025 it was reported that now $ORCL is delaying some data center projects to 2028 for OpenAI. If you have Oracle halting data center builds this in theory means deferral of revenue generation until after 2028 for OpenAI.
This around the same time $NVDA is stating there is no assurance they will enter into a definitive agreement with OpenAI so all that exists is a letter of intent:
In September 2025 they announced this $100B deal only to see by the 10-Q there is no definitive agreement in place.
OpenAI has a special purpose vehicle with Coreweave where this SPV will be raising debt to fund their data centers. Who pays this given neither Coreweave or OpenAI are making money? OpenAI committed $11.9B through October 30th, 2030 for Coreweave to build for them.
Coreweave has $14,034.94M in debt and recently took on another $2B in convertible notes. They are also, due to customer contracts, only buying from $NVDA (which is interesting as $NVDA has an equity stake in them), so concentration risk is high.
ORCL debt is starting to look like bond investors see trouble:
There is likely no subscription or whatever else that will generate the revenue that has gone into this mess. I could go on and on. So I will jump off the soapbox.
Happy Investing,
Sean |
