I recently got out of ideas and started looking for stocks of Brazilian companies( which is where I'm originally from so I thought I had an edge there) that are listed here and "discovered" a pretty solid high-growth fintech company - I didn't discover it because I consistently used their services when I went to Brazil 3 months before but just didn't pay attention to it at all - and found out that they were ranked 4th fastest growing company in the world, and at the time, the most recent news about it here was like a month old (which, from my perspective, just reinforced my analysis that it was an undervalued stock), with only like half a dozen smaller websites saying why or why not you should buy it. Turns out that a month or so after I invested in it many news channels started talking about it. The stock is up 12.3% since I bought it around 2 months ago
I think sometimes we get so engaged in something that we ignore some very simple leads. It reminds me of Lynch's example of L'eggs (or some other similar company) that he listened to his wife comment about a lot of times and just didn't pay enough attention to it until everyone started talking about it and investing on it.
I've been pretty content with what trying to pay a little more attention to my surroundings instead of only focusing on what's in front of me can do. It may seem a pretty simple and obvious thing to do, but I believe many times we forget to execute those simples strategies that can lead to great opportunities.
*** About Burry, I don't know about his strategies before the house market crash, but I have the feeling that since then he tries to replicate that success by shorting everything he considers overvalued, ignoring the fact that the way he "shorted" the house market was - at least from what I know - through CDSs where he paid FIXED premiums. From my understanding, those were expected losses - that even though were risky, at least they were more controllable risks - which is different than shorting a stock where a simple buying frenzy caused by whatever reason can squeeze you out - as it recently happened with him shorting Nvidia and Palantir.(Do I necessarily disagree with some of his points justifying this recent position?No. But sometimes the best move is just do nothing instead of being reckless like I think he was). I believe his condition mentioned by Paul makes him believe everyone is seeing things like he is, which then leads him to think that his position turning out to be succesful is just a matter of time, ignoring a possible irrational market.
Marco. |
