Live Updates: U.S. Unemployment Rate Rises, a Warning Sign for Economy
Employers added 64,000 jobs in November, according to data delayed by the government shutdown. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6 percent, its highest level since September 2021.
A career fair at Texas A&M University at Galveston.Credit...Lexi Parra for The New York Times
Updated
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:57 a.m. ET6 minutes ago
Rebecca Davis O’Brien
What to know about the report.
The unemployment rate rose in November, a warning sign for the health of a labor market that has been strained by federal layoffs and rising costs.
The jobless rate last month rose to 4.6 percent up from 4.4 percent in September, the last month for which officials had a full picture of the labor force before the weekslong government shutdown. Employers added 64,000 jobs in November, but the federal government lost 105,000 jobs since September as workers hit by deferred resignations came off the payroll.
Wage growth also slowed notably, to a level not seen since 2021, a measure that comes at a time when an increasing number of Americans are expressing pessimism about the economy.
Analysts and policymakers had hoped today’s report would help clarify the state of the economy after months of conflicting signals. The report also included some belated data on October, collected from a survey of employers after the government shutdown ended.
Here’s what to know about the report:- Interest rates: The report reinforces the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates last week. The Fed, on guard for signs that the labor market is on the cusp of cracking, has delivered a series of quarter-point interest rate cuts since September, weighing the labor market’s weaknesses against the risk posed by elevated inflation.
- Federal layoffs: Among the forces affecting the report was the end of the deferred resignation program for federal officials that the so-called Department of Government Efficiency launched this year.
- Off schedule: This report is late and a bit complicated, because of the 43-day government shutdown that ended last month. The November jobs data was supposed to be released on Dec. 5. Today’s report included November data, but also the belatedly gathered October data. Publication of September jobs data was delayed more than six weeks. That report showed a greater-than-expected increase in hiring, but with uneven gains centered on the health care and hospitality industries, along with a rise in unemployment.
Dec. 16, 2025, 9:00 a.m. ET 4 minutes ago
Lydia DePillis
The puzzling thing about this labor market continues to be the low level of layoffs. Initial claims for unemployment insurance have not escalated notably, and the layoff rate as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics is still around where it was during the very strong prepandemic labor market. This increase in unemployment is largely coming from more people looking for jobs, and not finding them.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:57 a.m. ET 6 minutes ago
Ben Casselman
The bottom line of this report is that the job market appears to have weakened significantly since earlier this year. We first saw that with slowing job growth over the summer. Now it’s showing up in the form of higher unemployment. There are caveats, as there always are. But there’s no way to read this report as anything other than a sign of softness if not outright weakness.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:59 a.m. ET 4 minutes ago
Ben Casselman
The question for the past several months has been whether the labor market would take a sharp turn for the worse, of the sort usually associated with a recession. This report isn’t enough to conclude we’ve hit that kind of turning point. But it certainly raises some red flags.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:54 a.m. ET 10 minutes ago
Lydia DePillis
In another troubling indicator, there was a large jump in a broader measure of labor market slack, which includes people who are working part time who would rather work full time, as well as those who want a job but haven’t looked in the past month. That share was 8.7 percent in November, up a full percentage point since this time last year.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:54 a.m. ET 10 minutes ago
Tony Romm
Today’s data may help explain why majorities of voters in recent polls have given President Trump poor marks on the economy. Unemployment is rising and wage growth is slowing, the data show, adding to the financial pressures on American families when prices are elevated.
Time and again, President Trump has blamed these poor economic indicators and other negative developments on his predecessor, President Joseph Biden, claiming they are after-effects of his leadership. But, nearly one year into Mr. Trump’s second term, voters seem to be telling pollsters that they believe that he may shoulder at least some of the blame, as his approval on economic issues continues to dip.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:48 a.m. ET 16 minutes ago
Lydia DePillis
Plenty of people are still working or looking for work. For people in their prime working years, between age 26 and 54, the labor force participation rate edged up to 83.8 percent, nearing a recent high of 83.9 reached last year. (The highest rate was 84.6 percent in 1999.)
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:47 a.m. ET 16 minutes ago
Ben Casselman
Federal government employment fell by 162,000 in October. That largely reflects the deferred resignation program that the Trump administration offered early this year. Employees who took that offer generally stayed on payrolls through September.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:47 a.m. ET 17 minutes ago
Sydney Ember
Similarly, the unemployment rate for young people ages 20-24 is not encouraging. While it ticked down to 8.3 percent in November, from 9.2 percent in September, it is higher than it has been since 2021.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:46 a.m. ET 17 minutes ago
Colby Smith
Most officials at the central bank forecasted the unemployment rate would peak at 4.5 percent this year before gradually easing in 2026, according to projections released alongside last week’s interest rate decision. So the rise in the unemployment rate in November to 4.6 percent is noteworthy. That said, Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, warned last week that technical distortions in the data suggested it should be viewed with a “skeptical eye,” meaning December’s data to be released in January will likely have more bearing on what the central bank does next with interest rates. The recent projections showed that most officials saw just one quarter-point reduction next year, although there was a wide range of views across the Fed.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:42 a.m. ET 21 minutes ago
Lydia DePillis
The unemployment rate is especially grim for Black workers, up to 8.3 percent. That’s more than two percentage points higher since the beginning of the year. As I wrote following the September data, Black workers are often seen as harbingers of what’s to come in the labor market, and have been buffeted by federal policies over the past year, especially those federal layoffs.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:42 a.m. ET 21 minutes ago
Ben Casselman
The number of Americans who have been out of work for more than six months, the typical definition of long-term unemployment, rose to 1.9 million in November, up from 1.7 million a year earlier.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:42 a.m. ET 22 minutes ago
Sydney Ember
One bright spot: The average work week ticked up to 34.3 hours, a sign that employers are not significantly cutting employees’ hours.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:42 a.m. ET 22 minutes ago
Ben Casselman
The unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, is now at its highest level since September 2021, as the economy was emerging from the pandemic. It’s up from 4 percent in January.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:41 a.m. ET 22 minutes ago
Lydia DePillis
Wage growth slowed notably, to 3.5 percent since this time last year. That is the slowest pace since before the pandemic.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:38 a.m. ET 26 minutes ago
Sydney Ember
Digging into those numbers a little more, manufacturing lost 5,000 jobs in November. So far, the sector has not appeared to benefit from Trump’s trade war, which he and his administration have argued will bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:36 a.m. ET 28 minutes ago
Lydia DePillis
Revisions to previous months depressed the picture for the late summer and fall as well, with a combined fewer 33,000 jobs and bringing the number for August to a loss of 26,000 positions.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:35 a.m. ET 28 minutes ago
Colby Smith
The rise in the unemployment rate is going to catch the attention of the Fed, which has been on guard for signs that the labor market is on the cusp of cracking. The central bank since September has delivered a series of quarter-point interest rate cuts on the basis that the downside risks to the labor market were more prominent than the risk posed by elevated inflation. This data fortifies the most recent reduction from last week.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:35 a.m. ET 28 minutes ago
Sydney Ember
Health care continued to drive job growth, adding 46,000 jobs in November. Construction added 28,000 jobs. But in many other sectors, including manufacturing and transportation and warehousing, employers shed jobs.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:35 a.m. ET 28 minutes ago
Lydia DePillis
The full impact of federal layoffs is finally becoming clear. The federal government shed 168,000 jobs since September, when those who took a deferred resignation came off payrolls.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:33 a.m. ET 30 minutes ago
Ben Casselman
Payroll employment in October fell by 105,000, mostly as a result of the federal government’s deferred-resignation program.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:31 a.m. ET 33 minutes ago
Ben Casselman
The numbers are (finally) out! U.S. employers added 64,000 jobs in November but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:29 a.m. ET 35 minutes ago
Lydia DePillis
A cautionary note before the numbers come out: It is tempting to look at the number of foreign born workers who are employed, vs. native born, which the household survey does record. The White House has in fact trumpeted the numbers that show the foreign born workforce shrinking. However, those data are highly unreliable because of challenges in adjusting baseline population numbers. Although it’s quite possible that the immigration enforcement campaign could be depressing the foreign-born workforce, we cannot conclude that from this report.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:17 a.m. ET 47 minutes ago
Ben Casselman
The first number I’ll be looking at when today’s numbers come out is the unemployment rate. Data from the private sector has given us some sense of job growth over the past couple months, and weekly data on applications for jobless benefits provide some insight into layoffs. But the unemployment rate is the only measure that pulls together the two sides of the equation to show how the labor market is doing, and it’s one place where the private sector really can’t fill in the gap.
Dec. 16, 2025, 8:02 a.m. ET 1 hour ago
Tony Romm
Today’s jobs numbers arrive at an uncomfortable political moment for the White House. Increasingly, voters have reported frustration with the state of the economy and President Trump’s handling of it, causing a dip in his approval ratings that has put the administration on the defensive.
Throughout, the president has tried to recast the economy as a point of strength, while dismissing criticisms — including concerns about affordability — as a “hoax.” With prices elevated and the labor market cooling, Mr. Trump and his aides have promised a burst in growth, jobs and wages will arrive early next year, once their policies — including a sprawling set of tax cuts — come online more fully.
“I think it’s going to start lifting off in the first quarter and the second quarter,” Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary, said Tuesday on Fox Business.
Mr. Trump recently has hit the road in a bid to sell that economic message to voters, with his latest trip set for North Carolina later this week.
Dec. 16, 2025, 5:03 a.m. ET
nytimes.com
My comments:
Poor Donald,
and really, really Poor Republicans.
The midterms will be a bloodbath for them!
Ugly, simply ugly and getting worse by the day.
Eric |
