Skeeter, here is what I said in my previous post:
It is not the past fundamentals or the current known scenario that influences stock behavior. Rather, clearly, it is the direction of the fundamentals going forward that determines the trend for a stock
Clearly, you were correct on your call that first half of 1998 was going to be bad for DRAMs. That is the reason why the stock got back into the twenties from the fifties. If you are contending that the DRAM business is going to be unprofitable for MU going forward (99 and 2000), that is your perception of the fundamentals going forward. I content that, given the cyclical nature of the memory business, and the changes that are occuring in the DRAM marketplace, along with newer applications in other domains and increasingly memory hungry applications will lead to a situation where demand will outrun supply growth (I wrote on this BB in April 96 that the I expect next boom cycle to start sometime in 98 and last through 2000).
If the market perceives my logic to be the basis for buying into MU, the stock goes up. Clearly, if the memory business and Micron will die a natural, unseemly death as you contend, the stock will head to the single digits. Either way, using numbers from this quarter and last fall for any of your analysis for the future would be valid only if we were going back in time (G).
Sridhar |
