I'm not so sure about the significance of the "up to 360,000." If there was a massing of fresh meat, we would have heard about it before now, and from much more than one "security expert." According to rferl.org (assuming they're not yet a full fledged Russian propaganda outlet), in September there were quite a few Russian bases in Belarus, but not likely 360,000 soldiers. They seem to be scattered all over, and just as likely aimed at Ukraine or Poland as the Baltic States. In any case, road connections look few and primitive and the forests are thick. Fresh Orcs probably don't have the experience needed to mount a winter invasion.
And you would think Russia would rather use all that meat on an active front, rather than paying them to sit around. Conceivably, they could open a northern Ukraine front, but it would be easy to spot troop movements on that scale. |
