Florida to be hit with La Niña weather event this winter, increasing possible fire dangers
Story by Peter Rubinstein
A new report released last week by a leading federal climate prediction agency confirmed that a La Niña weather cycle will bring cold air across Florida during parts of the winter season, potentially accompanied by intense dryness that could precipitate a firestorm.
La Nin~a is one half of a natural climate cycle called El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), characterized by seasonal swings between warmer and cooler ocean water near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. Even as this year's La Nin~a pushes cold air from the recent polar vortex across Florida and beyond, creating sporadic cold snaps, the state is expected to see warmer-than-usual weather during most of the winter season, according to the National Weather Service.
This weekend, the polar vortex again shot frigid air into North and Central Florida. Now, forecasters say a receding vortex will make way for a more typical La Nin~a weather pattern into the new year.
• New York City braces for brutal wind chills in frost bite blast as weather forecasters sound alarm
• US cities due to sink underwater by 2100 when sea levels rise 10 feet
In the United States, La Niña often means more precipitation — including possible snowstorms — in northern areas and winter dryness in the Southern Regions. It can bring heavier rains in Indonesia, the Philippines, parts of Australia, Central America, northern South America and southeastern Africa.
It also can mean drought in the Middle East, eastern Argentina, eastern China, Korea and southern Japan, meteorologists told The Associated Press. A La Nin~a occurs when certain parts of the Central Pacific Ocean cool by 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit compared to normal.
The world had been flirting with one this year, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) declared in October that La Nin~a conditions had formed. In 2024, La Nin~a dwindled away after just three months, leaving Earth in a neutral climate state.
Studies have found that La Niñas tend to be more costly than El Niños and neutral conditions. NOAA scientists from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) have confirmed that this year's La Niña pattern, which began in October, will persist through the winter season.
Floridians can expect above-average temperatures for December, January and February, the CPC said in November. Temperatures across the southern third of the continental U.S. will also be warmer, though nowhere more so than in Central and Southern Florida, as well as parts of Arizona and New Mexico.
Some time between January and March, the Earth will reach the ENSO-Neutral stage, an intermediate moment when neither La Niña nor El Niño are present, forecasters said. If Pacific Ocean temperatures rise again to above 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit, the Earth will enter an El Niño stage once more, beginning the cycle anew.
However, the timing of when El Niño conditions will present themselves is an uncertain question for climate scientists. "At this point it's simply too soon to say," Dr. Michelle L'Heureux, a CPC physical scientist, told the Tallahassee Democrat.
"There are growing chances of El Niño in mid-late 2026, but the chances remain less than 50%, which reflects the larger uncertainty we typically see as these forecasts go through the 'spring predictability barrier," they said. Due to North Florida's ongoing drought, fire danger may be heightened under La Niña conditions.
La Niñas typically induce temperatures 1 to 3 degrees higher than normal, and reduce rainfall rates 10% to 30% below average. In 1998, a wet El Niño followed suddenly by a dry La Niña led to the Florida Firestorm, a series of thousands of wildfires that torched large parts of the state for around six weeks.
The firestorm burned more than half a million acres, forcing thousands of residents to evacuate their homes.
Studies have found that La Nin~as tend to be costlier than El Nin~os and neutral conditions. © Getty Images
La Niñas typically induce temperatures 1 to 3 degrees higher than normal, and reduce rainfall rates 10% to 30% below average © Anadolu via Getty Images |
