Extreme Temperature Diary- Thursday December 18th, 2025/Main Topic: Met Office- 2026 Will Bring Heat More Than 1.4C Above Preindustrial Levels – Guy On Climate
Dear Diary. When experts or organizations make forecasts for average global temperatures, be they short or long range, my antenna perks up. After all, as I’ve stated many a time, the only debates
I will entertain on this site is how fast our climate will warm and how bad conditions will get as we move forward in time. In the short range well between 2030 and 2040 it looks we will break +1.5°C above preindustrial conditions and not get cooler than that mark as has happened this year. The United Nations has stated that humanity will be in a lot of trouble if planetary averages past that mark with our climate really becoming unglued if we pass +2.0°C.
This year planetary averages have decreased to about +1.4°C down from +1.55°C in 2024, which was our record mark so far. The Met Office from the United Kingdom predicts a similar mark for 2026 at +1.4°C above preindustrial conditions. Here are more details from the Guardian:
Met Office: 2026 will bring heat more than 1.4C above preindustrial levels | Climate crisis | The Guardian
Climate crisis
Met Office: 2026 will bring heat more than 1.4C above preindustrial levelsForecast is slightly cooler than the record 1.55C reached in 2024, but 2026 set to be among four hottest years since 1850 Scientists say 2025 is ‘virtually certain’ to end as the second or third-hottest year on record. Photograph: Ye Myo Khant/SOPA Images/Shutterstock
Climate crisis
Ajit Niranjan Europe environment correspondent
Wed 17 Dec 2025
Next year will bring heat more than 1.4C above preindustrial levels, meteorologists project, as fossil fuel pollution continues to bake the Earth and fuel extreme weather.
The UK Met Office’s central forecast is slightly cooler than the 1.55C reached in 2024, the warmest year on record, but 2026 is set to be among the four hottest years dating back to 1850.
A blanket of carbon smothering the Earth has begun to jeopardise the stable conditions in which humanity has thrived, worsening weather extremes and increasing the risk of catastrophic tipping points. The Met Office expects 2026 will be between 1.34C and 1.58C hotter than the average from 1850-1900.
“The last three years are all likely to have exceeded 1.4C, and we expect 2026 will be the fourth year in succession to do this,” said Adam Scaife, a climate scientist at the Met Office who led the forecast. “Prior to this surge, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3C.”
World leaders promised to limit global heating to 1.5C (2.7F) by the end of the century at a landmark climate summit in Paris 10 years ago. As the target is measured by a 30-year average, it is still physically possible to achieve, despite individual months and years crossing the threshold.
“2024 saw the first temporary exceedance of 1.5C and our forecast for 2026 suggests this is possible again,” said Nick Dunstone, a climate scientist at the Met Office. “This highlights how rapidly we are now approaching the 1.5C Paris agreement target.”
Last week, EU scientists said 2025 is “ virtually certain” to end as the second or third-hottest year on record, confirming projections from the World Meteorological Organization in November.
Average global temperatures from January to November were 1.48C higher than preindustrial levels, according to Copernicus, the EU’s Earth observation programme.
It found the anomalies were identical to those recorded in 2023, the second-hottest year on record. Last year, the Met Office predicted 2025 would see temperatures 1.29C to 1.53C higher than preindustrial levels.
Natural variation including warming El Niño conditions boosted global temperatures during 2023 and 2024, but gave way to weakly cooling La Niña conditions in 2025. The fluctuations take place against a backdrop of heat-trapping gas pumped out of power plants, cars and boilers, as well as the destruction of nature that can suck carbon from the air.
Levels of carbon dioxide clogging the atmosphere soared to unprecedented levels last year, a UN report found in October. As well as the unrelenting burning of fossil fuels and the fallout from rampant wildfires, scientists fear the Earth’s natural “carbon sinks” may be beginning to fail.
Here are some “ETs” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
So it's goodbye UK coastal #nuclear
‘Massive disruption’: UK’s worst-case #climate crisis scenarios revealed by scientists
Scientists say government must prepare for unlikely but ‘plausible’ 4C rise in temperature and a 2-metre rise in sea levels.
www.theguardian.com/environment/... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T16:35:46.111Z
So much trash in this Matt Yglesias NYT rant but this specific bit where has has a go at @doctorvive.bsky.social is absurd even for him.
Eliminating fossil fuels is basic fundamental science shit, not environmentalist shit
archive.ph/02ze4
www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/s... — Ketan Joshi (@ketanjoshi.co) 2025-12-18T13:41:16.780Z
Still waiting for the Climate Working Group (TM) to respond to the many critiques of the DOE-commissioned report, but meanwhile the hits keep coming...
The Rate of U.S. Coastal Sea‐Level Rise Doubled in the Past Century. Piecuch (2025)
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... — Gavin Schmidt (@climateofgavin.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T19:05:38.812Z
World’s ability to feed itself is under threat from the “chaos” of extreme weather caused by #climate change.
www.theguardian.com/environment/... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T11:35:43.634Z
#AI boom has caused same CO2 #climate emissions in 2025 as New York City.
Tech companies reaping benefits of artificial intelligence age but society is left to pay cost.
www.theguardian.com/technology/2... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T16:12:42.784Z
If you are in the US and you would like to send a message to your elected representative about the proposed dissolution of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, @agu.org makes it easy with a template here: agu.quorum.us/campaign/151... #AGU25 — Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2025-12-18T20:01:01.846Z
WCRP’s APARC releases a landmark report on global atmospheric impacts of the 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption.
159 scientists. 21 countries. 3 years. One report.
More information here: https://loom.ly/bF203o8
#WCRP #APARC #ClimateScience #HungaEruption — World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) (@wcrpclimate.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T11:03:02-08:00
Did you know Sea Level used to be 400 Feet Lower and Florida was 2X bigger?! Here’s the science behind it. #climate #climatechange #florida #fyp #iceage — Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T01:46:38.144Z
To give you an idea of why rivers are so swollen and flooding is historic, look no further than the high elevation rain/ snow. Up to 30” of precip has fallen in 2 weeks atop the mountains east of #Seattle
Much more on the way over the next 2 weeks. — Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2025-12-17T22:36:21.988Z
Communities are already experiencing extreme weather events at a frequency and intensity once unimaginable: and aging infrastructure, overburdened health systems, and emergency frameworks can't keep up.
This new report summarizes the experiences of more than 300 community-based representatives: — Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2025-12-18T17:54:41.109Z
Science has named the seemingly unstoppable growth of renewable energy worldwide as the 2025 Breakthrough of the Year.
Learn more about this year's #BOTY and other big advances in science: https://scim.ag/493Tpgx — Science Magazine (@science.org) 2025-12-18T19:05:05.104288748Z
Who could possibly have anticipated that paying back Big Oil's political bribe by cancelling a bunch of clean energy projects at a time of increasing demand would drive up energy prices?!?
Welp, at least continuing fossil fuel pollution doesn't drive up a bunch of other crippling costs for us, too! — Yellow Dot Studios (@yellowdotstudios.bsky.social) 2025-12-16T19:48:51.128Z
Since this op-ed specifically cites the example of other countries let me remind you that Canadian liberals' decades-long attempt to reconcile with the oil and gas industry and the province of Alberta have yielded no benefits for climate whatsoever and I'm not aware of any economic benefits either. — Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2025-12-18T18:56:21.337Z
We often think, “I’m just one person—what difference could I make?”
This story shows that, when we use our voice, the answer is: a lot.
So if one person can catalyze so much harm, imagine the good each of us can choose to support and advocate for.
Read more by @fieseler.bsky.social here: — Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2025-12-18T16:54:54.217Z
Read more about this man's western counterpart, a woman in Oregon who has solar panels on her own roof yet fights against solar energy, in my Talking Climate newsletter here: — Katharine Hayhoe (@katharinehayhoe.com) 2025-12-18T16:55:58.600Z
UK #Solar generation smashes annual record
solarenergyuk.org/news/solar-g... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T13:31:37.298Z
"Queued Up", a comprehensive analysis of generator interconnection requests to the U.S. transmission system (emp.lbl.gov/queues) — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T16:28:42.847Z
— Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T13:32:19.812Z
— Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T13:30:12.436Z
UK offshore wind farm plan to generate 300MW, comprising transmission infrastructure, offshore substations, offshore and onshore export cables (underground), onshore substation, and connection infrastructure to National Grid.
www.gov.uk/government/n... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T11:33:20.902Z
— Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T12:51:26.008Z
So ROSATOM - #Russia state nuclear corp - part of Russia's #nuclear weapons program - is 'top' ... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T13:35:28.307Z
'Why #Nuclear Power Can’t Fix the Grid: Cost, Delays, Risks & the SMR Reality'
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cEZ... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2025-12-18T12:53:19.027Z
Join us for a critical conversation on the future of U.S. atmospheric science.
UCAR President Antonio Busalacchi hosts this town hall on what’s at stake if NSF NCAR is dismantled.
buff.ly/jR6tGwo — AGU (American Geophysical Union) (@agu.org) 2025-12-18T15:17:30.097Z
Our Editorial in Nature Water explores the role of the EPA in public health protection, emphasizing the preventive benefits of clean air and water. www.nature.com/articles/s44... — Nature Water (@natwater.nature.com) 2025-12-18T18:01:07.713Z
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