Today’s Doctored CPI Inflation Release is like a Bad Joke, but Very Serious (though it Suits the Administration’s Narrative) by Wolf Richter • Dec 18, 2025
No CPI data for October, partially made-up CPI data for November, and now 3 months’ of doctored OER data which weighs 26% of overall CPI.By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.The Bureau of Labor Statistics explained today in its CPI report for November that most data for October was missing and some data for November was missing, and that it filled in the gaps in the November data, including by “approximating missing data points” with whatever, including for Owners Equivalent of Rent (OER), the biggest component of CPI, weighing 26% of overall CPI, for 33% of core CPI, and for 44% of core services CPI.
OER had a suspicious outlier-plunge in September, and that suspicious outlier-plunge in September was carried forward to October and November. And the BLS even explained some of it in separate notes, and so it’s not a secret.
Today’s Doctored CPI Inflation Release is like a Bad Joke, but Very Serious (though it Suits the Administration’s Narrative) | Wolf Street
But it’s not a bad joke, it’s much worse.
Lots of things depend on CPI, including the calculation of the “inflation protection” in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), I-series savings bonds the government sells to retail investors, Social Security COLAs, and other inflation adjustments paid to investors and beneficiaries, and they will all be underpaid for inflation.
This data here also impacts broader economic data that is adjusted to inflation, including “real” consumer spending and “real” GDP because the BEA, which produces those overall economic indices, uses some of this CPI data, including OER, for its calculation of the PCE price index and the GDP deflator, among others.
BLS is now causing serious issues with all of them, with investors and beneficiaries getting short-changed on their inflation protection, and with inflation-adjusted economic data getting inflated, which would, of course, suit the administration’s narrative.
Trump's BLS was caught in a lie. It's what people have come to expect, and he didn't disappoint as criticisms from WSJ, Marketwach, and Financial Times point out. It's sort of obvious with inflation in housing costs for maintenance, property taxes, HMO fees, homeowner's insurance, and home remodeling contractors that OER should be higher. |
