Humble was into cycles. He had his unique methods which I did not fully understand, and Humble kept it close to his chest.
Jmo .... here is what is going w/r to Hurst cycles, as seen on the NDX.
- We had a 4.5 yr or 54 month low end of Oct 2022. A well known Hurst cycle.
- We had a secondary low right about end of 2022.
- Which point is the reference point? One way to do it is pick the center, call it a straddle. Another way is to use both reference points.
Within the 54 month cycle there is strong harmonic cycle, the well known 18 month cycle. There is also a pretty strong 9 month cycle, 2 per 18 month cycle, 6 per 54 month cycle.
- The near end of Nov low was an 18 month awa a 9 month low w/r to end of Oct. 2022 low, pretty much dead on.
- The low currently being made is an 18 month awa a 9 month low w/r to the end of 2022 low.
- We call these phased lows.
- There was a strong low early April, we are near a 9 month low w/r to that low, just a wee bit to go. That April low was a dead nutz 18 month awa 9 month low w/r to end of 2022 low. Since it was strong it serves as a good reference point, for the next 9 month low target.
It appears best 50/50 the secondary low is in. The indices rose today but more or less crapped out, when they should have kept moving up if the move is up. We C next week, but holiday trading is on tap.
These cycle lows do not have to hit dead nutz, but often come pretty close, for the longer and major cycles.
Tweets
These get messy, but that is way it goes. My view is we head on up to a pretty decent top early 2027. You can check it out for yourself, but these major bottoms to tops are about 2 yrs now, and I expect that to continue. So 2 yrs from that April bottom puts us about end of March, 2027, also a near exact 27 yrs from the 2000 top.
The mid year 2027 low is a 4.5 yr low, it could be significant or a pimple, or in between. If this wave count continues, with these cycles, expect a bigger and more significant top in 2029.
If the Ndx continues to walk up the upper channel line, to the next cycle top, we get an estimate around 32000. This would probably put the Spx near 9000ish.
The bottom to bottom loops are ~ 9 mos.
I have the Ndx right about dead middle of a meat grinder up, in a iii of (iii) of 3. End of (iii) of 3 in 2029.
 |
