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re: Russia is importing refined petroleum products instead of exporting them. Is that true or not?
You are doing the same thing again. If Russia will have a problem, having to import 10% of its refined petroleum products, what kind of problem will Ukraine have, having to import 100% of its refined petroleum products?
re: Lots of reports and videos of the price of gasoline at retail in Russia having skyrocketed, so there seems to be supporting evidence.
A report from 1+ month ago from one or a few regions, price going up 10-15% as far as I could find - and your conclusion is that this means next harvest season, Russia will not be able to harvest their crops.
This is a conclusion only someone locked in an echo chamber could come up with. Obvious questions would be: are there still gas shortages in retail? And there is no evidence of that. But that's what person NOT locked in a basement, like me would do. You did not think of asking this question.
re: Russia may have the capacity to 20X. But manufacturing requires input of raw materials and/or semi-finished products.
On top of being an energy superpower, Russia is a natural resource superpower
re: Sanctions have crippled imports of those and the energy shortages cripple the ability to get stuff where it needs to be.
4 years of sanctions increased the self sufficiency and independence to great degree. What could have been a problem (or seen as a problem) 4 years ago, pretty much all of those things are no longer a problem 4 year later.
re: Even in the best of times, Russian logistics sucks rocks through teeny, tiny straws. This was illustrated when that kilometers long column of vehicles ran out of fuel on the way to Kyiv. As far as logistics go, the logistics chains for the Russian military are the best they have. Yet they lost a bunch of equipment because it ran out of gas on the way to the target.
If you ask anyone who is not a retard (and very few of them inside the echo chamber), anyone with interest in military matters, they will tell you that Russian military has leveled up by several levels since Feb 2022. There is only so much that can be learned theoretically, in planning, vs. doing it for real. Which Russia has been doing for 4 years.
And in terms of logistics, the "demand" is actually a lot less now than in 2022. There is one level of logistical support for a "big arrow" offensive, going 100 miles deep in span of days, with heavy equipment, vs. current level of war fighting with light infantry units, supported by drone warfare and intense close air support. And advancing only a few miles per month.
Actual fact at hand, on the ground is out of scope inside the "echo chamber". It is always 1938, it is always Iraq war, and it will always be a column of Russian tanks. Because that's a sufficient narrative to delude the Boomers.
re: What does your echo chamber say?
It just happens that both Ukrainian, just like Russia, have superb logistics capabilities, when supported by railroads. But a good idea would be to ask (I know, you are not allowed to ask): compared to what?
Here is a look at NATO logistics, for comparison. How France tried and failed to deploy a single brigade.
There is a widespread delusion inside the echo chamber about the military capabilities of NATO, Western Europe. Without the US, Western Europe is basically hopeless.
