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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks

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To: roguedolphin who wrote (108749)	12/21/2025 8:46:41 PM
From: roguedolphin	6 Recommendations Recommended By DinoNavarre Hugh Bett IC720 isopatch jazzlover2 and 1 more member Read Replies (3) of 108764

I highly recommend that you watch this hour-long interview with Joseph Schachter which was recorded a few days ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hgv9oCBjR5Y Joseph is an expert on the U.S. and Canada oil & gas industry. He publishes research on 31 public companies based in Canada. Joseph and I agree that the short-term outlook for oil prices is bearish, but the low oil prices are setting up a *"Super Cycle"* that could start in six months. He thinks WTI oil could dip to $52US/bbl in the next month or two, but sees the following price ranges for WTI after Q1: > $62 to $70 in Q2 2026 > $68 to $78 in Q3 2026 > $74 to $84 in Q4 2026 After 2026 he thinks a WTI oil price of $150US/bbl is "likely" in 5 to 7 years. Why? because lack of upstream investment will push many nations into terminal production decline. I have heard that as many as 17 out of 22 OPEC cartel countries are already on decline. The Dallas Fed says $65/bbl is the breakeven prices for Texas oilfields. > If WTI does dip to $52/bbl a lot of companies that I follow will significantly reduce drilling activity or stop completing new wells for awhile. Joseph and I agree that 2026 is setting up to be a very good year for U.S. and Canadian natural gas prices. AECO gas prices are now $3.25Cdn/MMBtu and he thinks NYMEX prices will average in the $4.00US to $5.00US with just normal weather. LNG exports and AI Data Center power demand will keep natural gas demand going up 5 to 6 Bcf per day year-after-year through at least 2030. In the last 20 minutes they talk about specific companies including Pine Cliff Energy (PNE.TO), InPlay Oil (IPO.TO), Surge Energy (SGY.TO) and Whitecap Resources (WPC.TO). He is also high on Freehold Royalties Ltd. (FRU.TO) which I will soon be adding to our High Yield Income Portfolio and Tourmaline Oil (TOU.TO), a "Gasser" which I will be adding to our Sweet 16 to replace Civitas Resources (CIVI) since it is merging into SM Energy (SM). He also mentioned Birchcliff Energy Ltd. (BIR.TO), saying that it is currently trading at 1/3rd of its net asset value per share. I have not heard of it. For my 2026 forecasts, which I will soon be breaking out by quarter, I believe that WTI oil will average $62.50/bbl. Here are the WTI oil prices that I believe are reasonable for each quarter in 2026 and for the year 2027: 2026 Q1 > $55/bbl < This price is unsustainable. Q2 > $60/bbl Q3 > $65/bbl Q4 > $70/bbl For 2027 I will use $70 per bbl for now, but I do think $80/bbl is possible. Eric Nuttall on December 18th: "We are sleep walking toward a global oil supply shortage in 2027." 11 minute video: youtube.com This video will show you why U.S. oil production will soon go on decline: youtube.com Dan Steffens Energy Prospectus Group

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