No, the Tesla 4680 battery program is not dead as of January 1, 2026—far from it, based on the latest available data. The Electrek article (published December 29, 2025) is accurate in reporting the dramatic 99% writedown by L&F Co., but it presents a one-sided, pessimistic view that overlooks key context and recent progress.

What the Writedown Actually Means

The $2.9 billion contract (announced in 2023) was for high-nickel cathode materials specifically tied to deliveries from 2024–2025.

L&F cited a "change in supply quantity," which analysts attribute to Tesla needing far less material than anticipated due to slower-than-expected Cybertruck volume and ongoing challenges scaling early 4680 variants.

Cybertruck sales in 2025 were indeed weak: ~16,000–20,000 units total (down significantly YoY), far below the 250,000/year capacity at Giga Texas. This directly reduced demand for 4680 packs (each ~123 kWh, ~1,344 cells).

The contract effectively ended on December 31, 2025, with minimal revenue realized—hence the accounting writedown.This is a real setback for the high-nickel version of the 4680 used in current Cybertrucks, tied to low-volume production and demand issues.

It's Not "The End" for 4680 Overall Tesla has continued advancing the program independently:

Production milestones: By late 2024/early 2025, Tesla's Giga Texas lines achieved >1 million cells/week, with yields >95%. The Gen 2 "Cybercell" (higher density, ~300 Wh/kg) is in every Cybertruck and became Tesla's lowest-cost cell per kWh (cheaper than suppliers like Panasonic/LG).

Dry electrode progress: Full dry-cathode ramp targeted for 2025, with further cost reductions. Tesla is shifting away from heavy reliance on expensive high-nickel chemistries.

Future variants: Plans for four new dry-cathode 4680 types in 2026 (codenamed NC05, NC20, NC30, NC50), including one optimized for the Cybercab/Robotaxi (unveiled in 2024, production ramp targeted for 2026+).

Broader applications: Expected in Tesla Semi refresh (2026 production), potential affordable models, and even Optimus robots. The 46mm cylindrical format is gaining industry traction (e.g., BMW, Rivian adopting similar cells from other suppliers).

The writedown reflects a pivot, not cancellation:

Tesla reduced orders for this specific high-nickel material because Cybertruck ramp underwhelmed and they're transitioning to improved, lower-cost 4680 chemistries (possibly incorporating more LFP-like elements for affordability).

Electrek's take ("catastrophic drop," program "winding down") is sensational—other sources (Reuters, Bloomberg, Teslarati) frame it as part of wider EV slowdowns (e.g., Ford/LG writedowns) and Tesla's manufacturing hurdles, not outright failure.

In short, the high-nickel 4680 supply chain for Cybertruck took a hit due to poor sales, but Tesla is still producing/refining 4680 cells at scale and betting on evolved versions for upcoming vehicles like Robotaxi. The program has been de-hyped from Battery Day promises, but it's alive and central to Tesla's next-gen plans.