Some good history and research...
<<Done the TA on $OUST now heres some FA. Wow, this stock surprised me. After a forensic analysis of snippets I found on X Amazon, Komatsu, Anduril, Bluecity / Nvidia, Apple and Google (not 100% concrete) are confirmed using Ouster. Also I uncovered a surprising hidden catalyst that I haven't seen anyone talk about yet (thats bloody juicy ill put at the end) As such ill be starting a long position instead of a swing position as my conviction is now high (and yours probably will be to after this report!) Furthermore I included some mathematics at the end to gauge just how much market share OUST is poised to capture thanks to the Pentagon blacklisting Hesai (the numbers are incredible) Just a note. Due to X restriction I will no longer be including external URLs as sources. I have included 4 images (The limit) instead of sources. Let's begin Report Summary OUST digital lidar architecture has enabled a decoupling of performance from cost. While analog competitors struggle with negative gross margins, Ouster has achieved a sector-leading 47% Non-GAAP Gross Margin in Q3 2025 (Hesia 42%, Luminar -39%) The intensifying technological decoupling between the United States and China has created a structural moat for Ouster. With the Department of Defense blacklisting major competitor Hesai Group (HSAI) via the 1260H list, Ouster has emerged as the primary beneficiary of Western supply chain de-risking. Its Blue UAS approval serves as a regulatory seal of quality that effectively locks out lower-cost Chinese alternatives from government and critical infrastructure contracts.
This report confirms Ouster’s integration into the flagship autonomous programs of global titans, including Amazon Robotics, Komatsu (Mining), and May Mobility. The company has demonstrated rigorous capital discipline, ending Q3 2025 with $247 million in liquidity and zero debt, while narrowing its Adjusted EBITDA loss to $10 million. This runway allows Ouster to weather macroeconomic volatility that threatens to bankrupt debt-laden peers like Luminar. The geopolitical divide The global lidar market has ceased to be a purely technological competition; it is now a geopolitical one. This shift is the single strongest catalyst for Ouster’s medium-term growth. The Hesai Factor and the DoD 1260H List Hesai Group (HSAI), a Chinese lidar manufacturer, historically held significant market share due to aggressive pricing. However, its inclusion on the U.S. Department of Defense's Section 1260H List of "Chinese Military Companies" has fundamentally altered the landscape.
The 1260H designation prohibits the DoD from procuring Hesai technology. More broadly, it serves as a massive reputational red flag for any Western corporation. Automotive OEMs, smart city integrators, and industrial giants are risk-averse; they cannot afford to integrate a sensor that might be banned in future regulatory crackdowns or tariffs. This creates a "forced migration." Customers who might have chosen Hesai for cost reasons are now choosing Ouster for security reasons. Ouster is the only high-performance, non-Chinese digital lidar provider with the scale to absorb this demand. Blue UAS and the "Buy American" Shift Ouster’s Blue UAS approval is a critical differentiator. The Blue UAS Framework is a list of DoD-approved components that are NDAA (National Defense Authorization Act) compliant. For defense contractors (like Anduril, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin), using a Blue UAS-approved sensor streamlines the procurement process. It eliminates the need for waivers and security audits. By achieving this certification for the OS1 sensor, Ouster has effectively standardized itself as the "default" 3D perception sensor for the U.S. military and its allies. Partnership verification This section provides detailed forensic verification of these relationships based on the provided snippets I found on X. The formatting will start with the claim I saw on X followed by the forensical analysis. Amazon, Komatsu, Anduril, Bluecity / Nvidia, Apple and Google (not concrete) confirmed using Ouster. Amazon Claim: Amazon Robotics uses Ouster sensors for its autonomous fleets. The relationship with Amazon is not merely a pilot; it is a deployment at scale. Amazon’s first fully autonomous mobile robot (AMR), Proteus, is designed to move safely among human workers. Visual analysis of the robot confirms the sensor array includes Ouster’s digital lidar pucks for 360-degree perception. The snippet from The Robot Report includes industry commentary explicitly validating the presence of "Ouster digital Lidar sensors on those Amazon robots." Furthermore, the snippet details the navigation stack, noting the use of "high precision LiDAR" to find carts. Amazon operates hundreds of thousands of robots. Even a partial fleet penetration represents tens of thousands of units for Ouster. Furthermore, Amazon’s validation serves as a bellwether for the entire logistics industry; if it works for Amazon, it works for DHL, FedEx, and others. Komatsu Claim: Ouster partners with Komatsu for mining equipment. In May 2025, Komatsu and Ouster announced a strategic partnership to deploy Ouster sensors on mining trucks and excavators. The press release notes that this deal provides a pathway to "replace legacy 2D lidar systems with 3D lidar." This is a critical insight: Ouster is not just winning new builds; it is cannibalizing the existing market share of legacy 2D sensor manufacturers (like SICK or Hokuyo). Mining is the ultimate torture test for hardware. Komatsu’s selection validates the IP68/69K ruggedness of Ouster’s digital architecture. Anduril Claim: Ouster is integrated with Anduril Industries. While a direct "Anduril buys Ouster" headline does not exist, the technological and regulatory integration is undeniable. Anduril’s core product is Lattice, an AI-powered operating system that fuses data from thousands of sensors. Lattice is "sensor agnostic," meaning it can ingest data from any supported device. Because Anduril sells primarily to the US and Allied governments, the sensors feeding Lattice must be NDAA compliant. With Hesai banned, Ouster is the primary high-resolution 3D lidar that meets this criteria (Blue UAS approved). Ouster is the only vendor that provides this hardware in a package that is: -Legally Compliant (Blue UAS / NDAA). -Physically Viable (Sub-500g weight for sUAS). -Industrially Scalable (Digital manufacturing for high-volume Replicator demands). BlueCity & NVIDIA Claim: Ouster works with NVIDIA on smart city tech. Ouster acquired BlueCity to vertically integrate software with its hardware. The BlueCity solution is officially part of the NVIDIA Metropolis ecosystem. It uses NVIDIA Jetson modules to run deep learning models at the edge. The partnership with LASE PeCo to deploy Gemini (powered by this tech) across Europe verifies that this is a commercial reality, not just a PowerPoint slide. Apple and Google Claim: Big Tech uses Ouster for mapping. Apple: Sightings of Apple’s experimental data collection vehicles have identified Ouster sensors. Additionally, Apple’s consumer push into "Digital Lidar" on the iPad Pro aligns philosophically with Ouster’s architecture.
Google: Google Street View cars utilize lidar for 3D modeling. More importantly, the developer ecosystem around Google Cartographer (a popular SLAM algorithm) has robust integration with Ouster OS1 sensors , making Ouster the default choice for mapping professionals per Ouster's blog on Google Cartographer integration Hidden catalyst Luminar Technologies (LAZR) filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy on December 16, 2025. Luminar was the primary non-Chinese competitor for automotive lidar. Ouster is now arguably the last major Western lidar company standing with a strong balance sheet ($247M cash) and a viable product. Western automakers (like Volvo, Ford, GM) who cannot use Hesai (China risk) and can no longer rely on Luminar (Bankruptcy) have very few options left besides Ouster. Gauging the "Hesai Vacuum": Market Cap & Opportunity Market Cap: ~$3.5 Billion (approx. 2.7x larger than Ouster's ~$1.3B). Annual Revenue Run Rate: ~$450 Million. Historically about 40% of Hesai's revenue came from the US and Europe. If Western entities (US/EU) stop buying from Hesai due to the DoD blacklist and tariffs, approximately $150M - $180M in annual revenue is up for grabs. If Ouster captures just 50% of Hesai's Western business, Ouster's revenue would grow by ~50-60% from its current levels (~$160M run rate). Because Ouster has higher margins (47%), adding this revenue would likely push them to full profitability (Net Income positive), which typically commands a much higher stock valuation multiple. Conclusion Ouster has best-in-class margins (47%), a fortress balance sheet (zero debt), and its two biggest rivals are either politically toxic (Hesai) or financially insolvent (Luminar). The total "Vacuum" (Hesai's Western share + Luminar's lost automotive pipeline (volvo)) represents a revenue opportunity roughly 2x - 3x Ouster's current size. The company has successfully verified its technology in the most demanding environments on Earth: inside Amazon’s warehouses, on Komatsu’s mining trucks, and in US military drones. Financially, it is robust, with industry-leading margins and a fortress balance sheet. Geopolitically, it is the designated winner of the Western world’s decoupling from Chinese sensor technology. Ouster offers a rare combination. A high-growth technology stock with a verified path to profitability and a massive, diversified total addressable market. The risks of supply chain disruption are real but manageable, and they are far outweighed by the structural tailwinds propelling the adoption of Physical AI.
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SunvMikey
@SunvMikey
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17h
$OUST Swing potential? Around the 200 SMA support. Still holding the 0.6 fib (look at that cheeky wick below tho! market makers definitely flushed some stop losses on that one) RSI 42 leaving room for upside Stop loss in these market conditions is necessary ($19.50 / 0.6 fib)
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