csco has already stated they plan on trying to form alliances, and have many in place with such firms as nt and qwst. gary korn over on the asnd thread postulated a hypothetical that a company such as cien is a logical purchase for a company such as asnd, and borrowing from gary, "the next logical leap from RAS to ATM should be to DWDM. (for asnd)." csco might want to purchase cien, but only if they can not form an alliance with a company such as lu and lu enters the fray by purchasing a company such as asnd.
considering csco's alliance with qwst, csco normally purchases technology, if an alliance does not occur between cisco and nt or lu, and lu or nt enters the csco's wan space, cien should be on csco's target.
i am going to steal more of gary korn's (my understanding between knaves, thieves and lawyers, plagiarism is high compliment) post,
I think that ASND -- which is big in electrical switching -- should acquire CIEN -- which is big in optical transmitting (and, ultimately, switching). ASND should not do this if it plans to be acquired by LU (which has its own vaporware optical product).
However, if ASND plans to grow into a multi-billion company on its own, the next logical leap from RAS to ATM should be to DWDM.
If ASND could get CIEN at $54/share (9 x sales), that would be $5.4 Billion. For that, ASND would pick up $600MM in sales and net income of about $160MM/year.
With an acquisition of CIEN, ASND would almost immediately become a $2B company.
With an acquisition of CIEN, ASND would cement its relationship with WCOM as a full service supplier (WCOM already purchases from CIEN) and would further cement a new relationship with ATT (an early funder of CIEN). - gary korn
you can almost put csco where for and add csco's routing technology and this also fits with cien's technology.
gary korn's post -
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