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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread

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To: Vector1 who wrote (4192)	2/26/1998 11:25:00 AM
From: James Silverman	Read Replies (2) of 9719

Do you worry that Spiros albuterol is nothing more than a generic drug in a fancy package? Offhand I can think of 4 companies that have generic inhalers on the market, or near. I'm sure there are more than this as well. ALO IVX KOSP DURA Not to mention Sepracor and their chiral version which should be out in maybe 2 years (MDI, DPI). I agree the cash hoard is a big plus, as is their huge investment in a 450 person sales force. They also have off the book r&d with Spiros II that needs to be accounted for ultimately. My main worry down the road here would be that with a fancy generic, once approved, it may be difficult to meet optimistic Wall Street forecasts at least initially. Another concern would be if it takes longer than expected for Spiros albuterol to get approved-another way to hack 1999/2000 eps. You want to see some smart insider selling--look it up. I'm actually fairly positive on the stock longer term, just thought I'd raise a few issues. I checked instinet pre-market for a chance to jump in, unfortunately the stock was trading up. So now comes the inevitable hate mail :-) Jim

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