Oppenheimer’s best small and mid-cap ideas for 2026
Jan. 06, 2026 11:59 AM ET
By: Monica L. Correa, SA News Editor
Oppenheimer Research released a list of its best ideas for small-caps and mid-caps in the new year.
Analysts said that, absent the traditional warning signs that have historically preceded market downturns – narrowing breadth, defensive leadership, and tightening credit – the firm is targeting the S&P 500 ( SP500) to reach 7,700. However, should those warning signals emerge and a bear cycle develop, Oppenheimer analysts have set a downside case for the S&P 500 ( SP500) at 6,100, corresponding to last summer’s breakout above the pre-tariff peak.
The firm’s best small and mid-cap ideas offer investors exposure to innovators positioned to benefit from several high-growth themes. These include companies tied to the aging population, artificial intelligence, defense technology, health and wellness, internet software platforms, online sports betting, private capital markets, robotics and automation, therapeutic innovation, and the U.S. industrial renaissance.
The diversified selection spans multiple sectors, from biotechnology and healthcare services to technology infrastructure, financial services, and manufacturing, providing broad exposure to transformative trends shaping the economy.
Below is a comprehensive list of Oppenheimer’s best “smidcap” ideas for 2026, along with the rationale behind each price target:
Academy Sports and Outdoors ( ASO) — Price Target: $70
The 12- to 18-month price target is predicated on 10-12x the firm’s FY26 (January 2027) EPS estimate of $6.30. This level represents a modest premium to current trading parameters while maintaining a discount to shares of Dick’s Sporting Goods ( DKS).
Addus HomeCare Corp. ( ADUS) — Price Target: $155
The price target equates to approximately 15x the 2026 EBITDA estimate of $191M, a multiple that is approximately in line with the 5-year average EV/EBITDA for the home health/hospice group.
Amprius Technologies ( AMPX) — Price Target: $17
The target is based on 6.0x 2026E revenue of $412M, discounted one year at 15%. Analysts note the multiple is in line with mature battery and advanced material peers, with a higher discount rate applied to account for ramp and technology risk.
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. ( AXSM) — Price Target: $220
Valued using DCF (discounted cash flow) methodology with a 7% discount rate—reflecting risk associated with a commercial-stage biotechnology company—and a -5% terminal value growth rate based on assumed timing for patent expirations. Analysts forecast risk-adjusted peak total revenues of approximately $6.0B in 2038.
Blue Owl Capital Corp. ( OBDC) — Price Target: $16
Estimates suggest OBDC can earn a 9.5% ROE. Given an estimated cost of equity capital of 9%, analysts calculate a fair value of $15.72/share, or 1.06x book value.
Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc ( CNTA) — Price Target: $62
Valued using DCF methodology with a 10% discount rate, reflecting risk associated with a clinical-stage biotechnology company, and a -1% terminal value growth rate based on assumed timing for patent expirations.
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals ( CRNX) — Price Target: $87
Based on a revenue multiples analysis, applying a 6x multiple to estimated peak revenues for paltusotine and atumelnant in their current development indications, in line with the 5-8x industry average. Analysts project peak US/EU paltusotine revenue of $929M in acromegaly (2030) and $941M in carcinoid syndrome (2033), with success probabilities of 100% and 75%, respectively. Peak US/EU atumelnant revenue is estimated at $704M in CAH (2033) and $295M in Cushing’s disease (2035), each with 60% probability of success. A 10% discount rate is applied.
DigitalOcean, Inc. ( DOCN) — Price Target: $60
Based on approximately 7x EV/sales on the CY26 revenue estimate, a multiple conservatively below the 10.1x average for infrastructure software and IT service providers. Analysts believe the multiple should improve as both revenue growth and FCF (free cash flow) margins inflect higher.
Gossamer Bio ( GOSS) — Price Target: $12
Valued using a sum-of-the-parts methodology with a 30% annual discount rate from peak sales, attributing a 1-10x multiple based on development stage. The valuation assigns a 70% probability of a positive readout in Q1 2026 for seralutinib, which would put the drug on track for potential U.S. and Japanese approval and launch in Q1 2027.
JFrog Ltd. ( FROG) — Price Target: $75
Reflects a CY27E EV/sales multiple of 12.5x, justified by technological leadership, a competitive “moat” in binary package management, growth prospects in new market areas including security, AI, compliance, and governance, and potential upside as platform consumption grows.
KBR Inc. ( KBR) — Price Target: $60
Derived from a sum-of-the-parts analysis. The STS unit is expected to trade at 12x 2026E EBITDA, a discount to E&C peers due to risk that Lake Charles does not go FID and the company cannot replace Plaquemines by 2027. The MTS unit is expected to trade at 9x 2026E EBITDA, a discount to peers due to government headwinds, smaller scale, and exposure to lower-margin logistics, operations, and readiness/sustainment contracts.
Lyft, Inc. ( LYFT) — Price Target: $26
Based on 15x estimated 2026 EBITDA, representing a 3% premium to peers.
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. ( MDGL) — Price Target: $650
Valued using DCF methodology with a WACC (weighted average cost of capital) of 10% and a residual growth rate of -5% due to patent expiration (modeled in 2045). Analysts expect worldwide sales of Rezdiffra in NASH to reach approximately $6.0B at peak (~$4.6B in the U.S.).
McGrath ( MGRC) — Price Target: $143
Represents McGrath’s multiple expanding from 7.7x currently to 10x EV/EBITDA on the 2026 adjusted EBITDA estimate of $389M. The company’s 5-year historical average EV/EBITDA multiple is 9.5x, and it has received two publicly confirmed acquisition bids at 10.7x and 10.9x EV/EBITDA.
Modine Manufacturing Co. ( MOD) — Price Target: $185
Based on 14.3x FY28E adjusted EBITDA of $701M, a discount to the peer average for HVAC OEMs. The multiple is considered appropriate given MOD’s margin improvement trajectory and increasing contribution of Climate Solutions to company EBITDA.
Nurix Therapeutics ( NRIX) — Price Target: $28
Uses a probability-weighted sum-of-the-parts NPV (net present value) methodology, including contributions from NX-2127 sales across multiple indications with success probabilities ranging from 20% to 40%, and NX-5948 in 2L+ CLL/SLL (60% PoS) and wAIHA (10% PoS). The valuation includes a projected cash position of $1.11/share.
Onto Innovation Inc. ( ONTO) — Price Target: $180
Based on a 29.0x 2026E P/E multiple, reflecting a 30.5% premium to the S&P 500’s current multiple. The company has averaged a 30-40% premium since the GenAI boom began in late 2022.
P10, Inc. ( PX) — Price Target: $22
Derived by taxing 2026E fund management distributable earnings including equity-based compensation of $1.14/share at 21%, applying a 20% premium to a 22.8x NTM market multiple, and subtracting $3.00 per share of net debt.
Palvella Therapeutics Inc. ( PVLA) — Price Target: $200
Calculated using probability-of-success-adjusted, sum-of-the-parts analysis with DCF modeling out to 2038 with no terminal value and a 12% WACC. The model assumes success likelihoods of 85% for Qtorin in microcystic lymphatic malformations, 75% in cutaneous venous malformations, and 60% for both the angiokeratoma and pitavastatin opportunities. Only U.S. opportunities are modeled, and the valuation includes $64M net cash.
Pharvaris ( PHVS) — Price Target: $50
Based on an average of multiple and DCF valuation approaches, applying a 6x revenue multiple for HAE to estimated, risk-adjusted global peak revenues of approximately $1.1B for prophylaxis and $350M for on-demand therapy. Models assume a 95% probability of success for on-demand therapy indications and 70% for prophylaxis, using a 14% discount rate.
Porch Group ( PRCH) — Price Target: $20
Assumes 25x FY26E EBITDA, a 39% discount to the InsureTech peer average, while estimating FY24-FY27E EBITDA to grow 146% faster than peers.
Pursuit Attractions and Hospitality ( PRSU) — Price Target: $48
Based on 12x the 2026 EBITDA estimate. Analysts believe PRSU should trade at a premium to comps (currently ~11x) given its financial flexibility and potential upside from M&A and high ROI projects.
SPX Technologies ( SPXC) — Price Target: $240
Equates to a 27.5x P/E multiple on 2026E EPS plus assumed capital deployment, contemplating approximately 1 turn of additional leverage with average post-spin deal economics.
Semtech Corp. ( SMTC) — Price Target: $81
Represents 29x the CY27 EPS estimate, in line with the AI peer average. Analysts believe SMTC is well-positioned to gain share in ACC and LPO, while core businesses in LoRa technology and handsets continue to grow at double-digit rates long term. The firm believes SMTC deserves to trade at a premium to the group.
Sensata Technologies Holding PLC ( ST) — Price Target: $43
Based on approximately 11x 2027E adjusted EPS versus the stock’s current 10x 2025E multiple. The target anticipates steady operating refinements, sustained positive organic growth with net end-markets stabilized, and balance sheet deleveraging, representing approximately 25% potential upside including a 1.4% dividend yield.
Super Group Ltd. ( SGHC) — Price Target: $18
Based on 14x 2026E consolidated EBITDA versus peers at approximately 6x. The premium is considered reasonable given SGHC is growing consolidated EBITDA at a 2024-2026E CAGR of 33% versus peers at 7%.
TeraWulf Inc. ( WULF) — Price Target: $20
Based on an EV/MW of approximately $20M on 2027E capacity, supported by a DCF assuming a WACC of 9.0%, 3.5% long-term growth rate, and terminal EBIT of approximately $2B.
Universal Display Corp. ( OLED) — Price Target: $185
Based on 32x the 2026 EPS estimate of $5.83, matching the stock’s five-year historical average FY2 P/E. The target reflects positive catalysts including wider OLED adoption in the IT market, recovery of OLED TV sales, production ramp of Gen 8.7 fabs, and commercialization of the blue emitter, offset by macro uncertainty and timing of blue emitter commercial sales.
Via Transportation, Inc. ( VIA) — Price Target: $59
Based on a 7x sales multiple applied to the 2027 total revenue forecast of $651M. The firm assumes VIA can expand its sales multiple in the outer year with consistent quarterly earnings reports. The stock currently trades at 4x FTM total revenue estimate of $502M, a two-turn discount to the Tier 1 software group average.
Wave Life Sciences Ltd. ( WVE) — Price Target: $32
Valued using DCF methodology with an 11% discount rate, reflecting risk associated with a development-stage biotechnology company with initial proof-of-concept clinical data, and a -5% terminal value growth rate. Analysts forecast WVE’s risk-adjusted total revenues of approximately $1.5B in 2035.
Wix.com Ltd ( WIX) — Price Target: $160
Derived from an eight-year DCF projecting a top-line CAGR of 13% and a terminal EBIT margin of 21% (versus mature SaaS peers in the mid-20s). The valuation applies a terminal cash flow multiple of approximately 8.5x, discounted at a WACC of 11%. |
