Spoke to cousins
Situation confused
Regime left in place
Defenses turned off by insiders
Defense Minister part of the gang
Vice president might not be
Madero handed over
Maduro’s son inducted into the gang, or not, unclear
USA hoping for coup by alternative and maybe right wing, of which my cousin might be considered except he is less than political, but observe that the de facto civil war over the past whole lot of years shall simply continue
The warrior cousin of ours is back in Venezuela from Columbia
USA did destroy some Venezuelan military based in Caracas whose mission is to guard some fort which in turn guards the left-wing elite adjacent to fort
Whatever was done by the USA must be just a start
The poor is not helped and is left, shall likely remain left
We use the terms left and right loosely but more accurate than not albeit centrist in Venezuela likely considered right
Besides the male cousins, women and kids of the families had been scattered, took roots, and shall remain in Spain, Portugal, USA, Canada, Columbia, Chile, and Argentina
Venezuela likely go into hot civil war
My computer, the ‘right’ in Venezuela cannot win because the former elite were feudal, and cannot make weather in the mind of the majority poor. Iow Venezuela shall worsen into a more completely failed-state
China was buying Venezuelan oil and trying to moderately help
Now, given the Trump move and Venezuela collaborators willing to do bidding, China no longer has to help
Let’s see what, if anything the Trump team can do to help the situation
The cost would be several X of whatever oil production can possibly support
The Chinese were negotiating with Venezuela re RMB-denominated oil purchase as the loans extended to Venezuela were being paid off in oil shipment
Now, something like (do not quote me, am referencing Sean Foo) $ 14 billion remain to be paid, and shall eventually, in the fullness of time, be paid, China is liberated by Trump from Venezuela, and given that the domain is on the Western hemisphere, Trump / US can either rejuvenate Venezuela or expedite its rot, but, in the sense of and, Venezuela is in the heart of Latin America.
Next up, perhaps, 94% narco-occupied Mexico, an easily-failed state, is in the doorstep of USA
We are somewhere between kabuki and soap opera, typical Latin America
Popcorn ? |
