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Henrik Zeberg: Blow Off Top Underway - Real Economy Already Sinking
Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, warns that despite stock markets hitting all-time highs, the real economy is sinking fast - private job creation has fallen below recessionary levels seen in 2007, and 90% of US consumers are now worse off than going into both the 2008 financial crisis and the 1929 depression. Using his Titanic metaphor, he explains first class passengers (top 10%) are still at the bar while third class is already in the water. Zeberg predicts a blow-off top with the S&P potentially hitting 8,200 before a crash worse than 2008, driven by central bank hubris that will trigger stagflation when the Fed inevitably intervenes. He's long-term bullish on gold and silver but warns of a short-term pullback as the dollar spikes to 120+ on the DXY during the deflationary bust, and explains why there's no easy way out this time - we've exhausted the free lunch of money printing.
00:00 Intro and welcome Henrik Zeberg 01:22 Macro view, the real economy is about job creation, not financial markets 04:13 90% of consumers worse off than going into 2008 and 1929 05:58 Titanic metaphor: First class denying while third class already in water 06:56 Chart: ADP private job creation declining to recessionary levels 08:26 Illusion of stability: Stock market disconnect from economy 09:07 Stock market doesn't predict recessions - look at unemployment 11:15 Zeberg business cycle model pointing to recession 14:55 Bond market sniffing out problems - yield curve signals 20:02 Central banks and the Fed: The hubris problem 23:02 2020 changed everything - inflation is back as a factor 25:26 Gold and silver starting to show end game signs 26:20 If Fed intervenes with more stimulus, it creates stagflation 28:03 Henrik's views on gold and silver clarified 30:55 Dollar regime coming - DXY could spike 32:12 Long-term bullish gold/silver but short-term pullback expected 35:35 Navigating different regimes as an investor 38:19 Strong dollar implications 39:06 Current regime still risk-on, riding the blow off top 43:29 Why this recession will be worse than 2008 48:21 No easy way out - we're at the end of the Keynesian curve 49:12 Can we get back to sound money? Only through pain 51:41 Under the radar trend: Realization of how bad consumer really is 53:55 AI won't save us short-term - actually reduces jobs needed 54:25 Wrap up: Think for yourself, do your own research
