>> THE F*CKING F*CKS
... gift, in the form of chaos, incoming, accompanied by crisis, and volatility, partner / friend respectively, requiring careful-enough navigation along lonely paths
zerohedge.com
Silver 100%+ Above the 200-Day — Vol Sets the Trap
BY THE MARKET EAR
FRIDAY, JAN 16, 2026 - 23:45
Steep silver
Silver just printed its largest down candle since the late-December shakeout. Even so, price is still holding above the 8-day MA (~$85) and well above the 21-day (~$77). Silver could retrace another ~$10 from here and the steep uptrend would remain fully intact.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Trump and Hassett
Rather violent first reaction in silver post the latest Trump/Hassett news (more here).
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Source: LSEG Workspace
Probably better entry points
Hartnett points it out: "...silver 104% above 200-day moving average = most overbought since 1980."
Source: BofA
Retail's silver love
If you still wonder who is driving the silver move...
Source: Vanda
Pushing momentum
CTAs trade (and push) momentum. The latest silver bull has attracted new fresh buying from these strategies. Do not forget, they do not care about emotions, and will reverse the long quickly should things reverse lower.
Source: Mentor Q
Source: Mentor Q
Need silver....
...to run those AI machines was part of our long silver logic last year. This has gone beyond extreme.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Expensive theta
Silver volatility has exploded and, in our view, is effectively “broken.”
Implied volatilities are pricing ~5% daily moves, meaning theta is brutally expensive. Retail punters piling into SLV calls have little grasp of how volatility really works, but they’ll learn fast if silver even nudges lower.
A modest pause or reversal would crush volatilities, and options would bleed value rapidly. Volatility compression would hit first, and spot would feel the pressure soon after.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Extreme
Massively inverted SLV term structure with the short end of the curve trading extremely "stressed". Chart 2 shows silver skew. Note just how well bid upside is trading.
Source: LSEG Workspace
Source: LSEG Workspace |
