Extreme Temperature Diary-Wednesday January 21, 2026/ Main Topic: Experts Warn Environmental Crisis Is Decades Ahead of Forecasts – Guy On Climate
Dear Diary. Climate change is here to stay for numerous generations to come. Since I became very aware of this fact during the 1990s, climate models have been getting more dire, and some effects of climate change, such as horrific heatwaves and wildfires, have been forwarded from hundreds of years in the future to now in the 2020s.
About half the large lakes of the world are shrinking. A great reason to be more careful in how we use water.
www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023... — Jonathan Overpeck (@greatlakespecktwo.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T12:10:52.919Z
The Independent has a new summary of present-day climate change effects that I am presenting today for our main topic.
"Climate change is here. We are seeing event classes [today] that were forecast in #climate models for the 2050s, 2060s, and 2070s.” - @oceanterra.org
#FasterThanExpected
#ClimateEmergency — Dr. Aaron Thierry (@thierryaaron.bsky.social) 2026-01-18T06:51:05.770Z
‘Climate change is here’: Experts warn environmental crisis is decades ahead of forecasts | The Independent
‘Climate change is here’: Experts warn environmental crisis is decades ahead of forecastsDrought, heatwaves, hurricanes, and wildfires are arriving sooner than we imagined according to scientists Maira Butt
Saturday 17 January 2026
Melting glaciers, coastal areas wiped off the map and regular 40C heat in Europe. Climate experts warn the gloomy predictions of long term environmental change are no longer the future – they are already here.
Last year was the third hottest on record, with the World Meteorological Organization this week warning that 2025 continued a run of “extraordinary” global temperatures. The EU has said the Paris climate agreement of 1.5C could be broken before 2030, a decade sooner than expected.
“It is alarming because we are seeing the types of events that scientists didn’t consider would impact us in 2025 or this decade,” Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, tells The Independent.
“Climate change is here. We are seeing event classes [today] that were forecast in climate models for the 2050s, 2060s, and 2070s.”
 Hurricane Melissa led to deaths across the Caribbean (Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)
Data released last month showed the world’s oceans absorbed more heat in 2025 than in any year since modern records began, according to a major international analysis.
The start of 2025 saw the catastrophic devastation caused by the California wildfires, killing up to 440 people and inflicting unprecedented economic losses in excess of $40bn, according to Swiss Re.
It was an above average year for hurricane activity with three category 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic for the first time in twenty years. That includes the historic Hurricane Melissa, setting records for being one of the strongest storms in the Atlantic this century.
The slow-moving storm underwent rapid intensification due to warmer seas caused by climate change, leaving very little time for the Caribbean to respond.
 Wildfires in California wreaked widespread damage (AFP/Getty)
Climate change tripled heat-related deaths caused by heat waves across Europe, according to research by the Grantham Institute. Fossil fuels increased temperatures by up to 4 degrees celsius across affected cities.
About 1,500 of the 2,300 (65 per cent) estimated heat deaths are a direct result of climate change caused by the burning of fossil fuels.
Data in regions of the Global South are severely under-reported due to lack of resources but are expected to be just as damning. At least 1,037 people were killed in flash floods in Pakistan.
 A woman and child crosses a flooded street due to Typhoon Fung-wong in Navotas, Philippines last November (Copyright 2025 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)
A total of 78 million people were affected by climate-related natural disasters according to data by EMDAT that excluded non-climate fuelled incidents including earthquakes, volcanoes and tornadoes. These include 11, 930 dead and over 35,000 injured.
“There are also major humanitarian crises that rarely make the headlines but are affecting millions of people,” says Scott Craig, a spokesperson for the International Federation of the Red Cross.
“In Kenya, millions are experiencing the worst climate-related drought in decades. Somalia is facing a similar crisis. Both are severely underfunded. These forgotten crises can be difficult to draw attention to, but the needs are no less urgent.”
 Wildfire near the city of Patras, western Greece in August, 2025 (AFP/Getty)
Yet this still marks a comparative “quiet year” in terms of financial losses, according to Swiss Re who have been monitoring trends in economic losses caused by natural disasters over the last decade.
They report average economic losses between 2015 to 2024 were $267bn. Last year, they reached a colossal $327bn. In 2025 they are a more modest $220bn. But the reality is more complicated.
“It was not a peak peril year,” says Balz Grollimund, head of catastrophe perils at Swiss Re. “We haven’t had any big hurricane, flood, or earthquake losses, but 2025 still made it to an average loss year.
“From that perspective it’s been a very quiet year fortunately, and yet 2025 is still close to the 10-year average.”
 Over 78 million people were affected by climate disasters in 2025 (Reuters)
A long-term increase in awareness and building resilience to disasters is gradually reducing the “protection gap” – the portion of losses out of the total loss. In 2025, almost half (49 per cent) of losses were insured.
“These are exceptional times,” says Burgess. “These are exceptional climate conditions.”
The Red Cross added: “We’re seeing humanitarian needs rising to unprecedented levels, driven in part by more frequent and more intense climate-related events such as floods, droughts and wildfires. These shocks are often hitting communities that are already vulnerable, so it becomes disaster layered on top of disaster.
“The long-term consequences go far beyond the initial emergency. The challenge is not only how we help people in the immediate aftermath, but how we strengthen communities over time.”
Here are some “ETs” recorded from around the planet the last couple of days, their consequences, and some extreme temperature outlooks, as well as any extreme precipitation reports:
I've been writing Conversation pieces for over 10 yrs, since near the beginning of my PhD. Some of them are now cringe, others stand up.
The latest is here. A short thread.
1/n
theconversation.com/us-climate-o... — All Our Yesterdays (@allouryesterdays.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T09:34:16.852Z
Very much enjoyed this @dickon.bsky.social / @amywestervelt.bsky.social interview, go listen.
Hard agree in particular on the over-rehearsed / comms-ified nature of so much of the stuff we've created in the climate world. Younger, video-based communicators are reversing this!! — Ketan Joshi (@ketanjoshi.co) 2026-01-21T11:58:09.972Z
Big driver = climate change: “Large-scale droughts have become more frequent and pervasive, costing an average of $307 billion annually. Some 4.4 billion people face water scarcity for at least one month a year” www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi... — Jonathan Overpeck (@greatlakespecktwo.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T12:13:39.601Z
Asia has the biggest water stress problem, but isn’t alone in needing to use water more sustainably.
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi... — Jonathan Overpeck (@greatlakespecktwo.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T12:18:58.602Z
Era of ‘global water bankruptcy’ is here, UN report says
Overuse and pollution must end urgently as no one knows when whole system might collapse
www.theguardian.com/environment/... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T08:20:59.354Z
Some of the world’s biggest megacities are located in river deltas threatened by subsidence due to excessive groundwater extraction and urban expansion, compounding the threat they face from sea-level rise. — New Scientist (@newscientist.com) 2026-01-20T22:51:09.318Z
Insured damages from extreme weather events in Canada were the 10th highest on record last year.
Between 2016 and 2025, insured losses from catastrophic weather events and wildfires totaled $37 billion—nearly triple the previous decade. www.newswire.ca/news-release... — Canadian Climate Institute (@climateinstitute.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T17:36:17.833Z
Non-permanent carbon removals #CDR, like afforestation, cannot compensate for emissions as permanent ones can. This should be reflected in #CarbonPricing.
PIK study in Environmental and Resource Economics provides guidance, calculates the price difference.
👇
www.pik-potsdam.de/en/news/late... — PIK_climate (@pik-potsdam.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T12:23:09.256Z
Beef has a huge environmental cost. And the only real fix is to consume less of it.
drawdown.org/insights/gre... — Dr. Jonathan Foley (@globalecoguy.bsky.social) 2026-01-19T21:02:55.931Z
Big Oil caused the climate crisis... but we’re paying the price. 💸🌍
We're joining in on the #MakePollutersPay Week of Action - as people around the country are demanding justice from fossil fuel giants.
Find an event near you: makepolluterspay.net — Stop the Money Pipeline (@stopmoneypipeline.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T18:39:19.990Z
🌿 Join us for our new campaign launch, Restoring Hope for Climate and Nature, and learn how to use the National Emergency Briefing to engage your MP on the Climate and Nature Bill.
🗓️ Tuesday 27 January
⏰ 19:00—20:30
💻 Online | Free
🎟️ RSVP 👉 tinyurl.com/ZHRestoring #CANBill — Zero Hour for the Climate & Nature Bill (@zero-hour.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T10:38:31.883Z
Update: #Storm Trend North!
Latest models shift heavy #snow ❄️ threat far into the Northeast & Ohio Valley! The #ice threat is also shifted north out of the Deep South, but still severe icing likely in the Mid-South, N MS/AL/GA, TN Valley, and esp the Carolinas.. 1/ — Jeff Berardelli (@weatherprof.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T17:19:01.273Z
🔴 ⚠️ 🌀 🌊 🛰️ Winds at 120km/h, storm surges with waves up to 10m of height,more than 500mm of rain in Sicily in less than 3 days: #storm #Harry is bringing devastation to southern italian coastal areas.⬇️Latest 36 hours of Airmass RGB from meteosat-10 — Antonio Vecoli (@tonyveco on X) (@tonyveco.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T14:01:05.805Z
"European countries now reliant on US liquified natural gas shipments, creating risk of higher bills amid recent tensions"
We in the climate space have been warning against this for years now. The Adults In The Room all kept insisting we had to switch gas providers for "energy security". Well, look — Ketan Joshi (@ketanjoshi.co) 2026-01-21T09:35:41.439Z
Half of world’s CO2 emissions come from just 32 fossil fuel firms
www.theguardian.com/environment/... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T08:53:18.672Z
— Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T15:42:57.216Z
— Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T08:13:50.392Z
I had a preview of the Warm Homes Plan, and one thing that stood out was the clarity of direction it provides.
A simple word count already tells part of the story.
🧵 — Jan Rosenow (@janrosenow.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T11:02:11.798Z
Heat pumps, battery and solar PV technology provided by leading UK renewable energy supplier will deliver toll free electricity for up to 10 years.
environmentjournal.online/energy/dunde... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T09:57:16.007Z
— Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T09:36:39.917Z
Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant has completely lost external power supply.
www.ukrinform.net/rubric-econo... — Dr Paul Dorfman (@drpauldorfman.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T09:55:15.068Z
Yesterday's Gov report tells us that UK "cannot currently produce enough food to feed its population based on current diets" and that as ecosystems collapse, other countries are likely to limit exports.
That means not enough to eat.
It really is time for Gov to brief the nation.
#NEB2025 — Simon Oldridge (@sioldridge.bsky.social) 2026-01-21T09:24:53.870Z
Greens surge to joint highest polling as Reform support stalls
www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/gre... — Zack Polanski (@zackpolanski.bsky.social) 2026-01-20T20:54:30.248Z
Beavers are back in London 🦫
Here's how (and why) we did it ⬇️ — Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan (@london.gov.uk) 2026-01-21T07:18:51.239Z
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