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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)
CIEN 199.26-1.1%Nov 7 4:00 PM EST
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To: Tom Aellis who wrote (1612)2/26/1998 2:22:00 PM
From: Maverick  Read Replies (1) of 12623
 
Thread, I am still on the sideline on CIEN for several reasons

1) The dust has not settled on CIEN.

2) The WDM is getting crowded. Whoever executes better will win.

3) CIEN's reliance on very few big customers, much like TDFX who
had a large Japanese firm canceled a large contract causing its tumbling.

4) In carrier market, customer relationship and biz viability is everything. It's going to be a little tougher for CIEN to convince a prospective customer who is not sure whether CIEN's viability a few years from now. In this regard, LU has a great intrinsic advantage.

5) Visibility is rather low with little backlog.

That said, I might consider taking a position in CIEN in the low 30s at which the risk/reward ratio might not be so high. CIEN could very well drift lower after the RS is over and the momentum players have fled.

BTW, I have other vital infos on CIEN for which I might post when time is right.
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