A rather long but MUST READ article translated from the very reputable German "Der Spiegel" publication.
"The Russians are convinced that Ukraine will capitulate"
After almost four years of war in Ukraine, Moscow sociologist Lev Gudkov examines the mood of Russians. He says: Almost all of them felt surrounded by enemies. And the hatred of the West, fueled by the Kremlin, is growing.
An interview by Christina Hebel, Moscow
26.01.2026, 12.01 p.m.
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Woman holds the hand of a Russian soldier at the Bolshoi Theater in Moscow: End of the war in Ukraine only on Putin's terms
Photo: Ramil Sitdikov / REUTERS
For decades, Lev Gudkov has been interviewing Russians and knows them like no other. The 79-year-old sociologist works as a scientific director for the Levada Center, Russia's only independent opinion research institute. He invites us to the conference room of the office not far from Red Square and places a stack of colorful diagrams and tables in front of him.
About the person
Photo:
Dmitry Serebryakov / DER SPIEGEL
Lev Gudkov, born on December 6, 1946 in Moscow, is a sociologist and pollster at the only independent Russian polling institute, the Levada Center. The sociologist Yuri Levada was the first to publish studies on how people think and feel in the Soviet Union, at that time for the state institute Vziom. Gudkov was his collaborator. In 2003, the two founded their own institution with other scientists. After Lewada's death in 2006, Gudkov was elected its head and headed the institute for 15 years. Now he is its deputy head and scientific director. In 2016, the Russian authorities classified the Levada Center as a so-called foreign agent, and in February 2025, Gudkov himself as well.
SPIEGEL: Mr. Gudkov, we are meeting for the fourth time since the beginning of the war against Ukraine. For the first time, Trump's mediators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have negotiated a peace plan with Ukrainians and Russians in Abu Dhabi. How much do people in Russia support these talks?
Gudkov: 66 percent of those surveyed want these negotiations. Only 26 percent were recently in favor of continuing the war – this is the lowest value we have collected so far. This has primarily to do with Donald Trump. The Russians believe that it can bring peace.
SPIEGEL: And not their own head of state Putin?
Gudkov: It is clear to the Russians that Putin will continue this war to the point of complete exhaustion – regardless of all the casualties and merciless destruction. A large majority of Russians still support the war, thus following state propaganda. At the same time, however, we perceive a great deal of war fatigue, uncertainty and diffuse discontent among the population. The Russians have transferred this helplessness to the US president, they are pinning their hopes on him. They see Trump as a president who understands Russia's interests and is willing to put pressure on Ukraine. That's why sympathy for Trump and the US skyrocketed after his re-election a year ago.
SPIEGEL: So far, the US president has not achieved much in the negotiations on Ukraine.
Gudkov: After the Alaska summit in August, we saw some disappointment, but not too much. The Russians continue to hope for Trump.
"The confrontation with the West is now overshadowing everything"
SPIEGEL: Negotiations can only succeed if both sides are prepared to make concessions, at least theoretically. How open are the Russians to such compromises that could lead to peace?
Gudkov: There is no willingness to compromise here. The Russians are convinced that Ukraine will give up and capitulate. They can only accept an end to the war on Putin's terms . When we ask whether people would approve of Putin deciding to stop fighting tomorrow, 70 percent of respondents said yes. But if we want to know how they would feel if Putin were to withdraw his troops from the occupied Ukrainian territories after such a decision, the picture is reversed: 60 percent would condemn the withdrawal of the armed forces.
SPIEGEL: What explanation do you have for this contradiction?
Gudkov: Putin has succeeded in reinterpreting the war in Ukraine, which he had declared in the first few months as a fight for the denazification of the neighboring country, as a war against the entire West.
SPIEGEL: At least that's how the Kremlin and propaganda want to portray it ...
Gudkov: ... everything we ask corresponds to the propaganda of the Russian leadership. It is very efficient, people can hardly resist it. The confrontation with the West is now overshadowing everything. Hardly anyone in Russia believes in Ukraine's guilt: only 16 to 17 percent of respondents hold it responsible for the fighting; about 70 percent name NATO, 80 percent the USA as the culprits. In contrast, only six to eight percent of respondents blame their own country Russia. The Russians are thus completely shifting responsibility for the war away from themselves.
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Putin welcomes Kushner (right) in the Kremlin, in the middle Witkoff: Russians hope for Trump and his mediators in the war against Ukraine
Photo: Alexander Kazakov / AFP
SPIEGEL: The mood in Russia towards the West was once different. How could Putin turn it around like that?
Gudkov: In the 1990s, 60 percent of Russians wanted to join NATO and the EU. Putin has stoked anti-Western sentiment since 2003. Call it the instinct of a Chekist...
SPIEGEL: ... i.e. an employee of the security authorities. Putin worked for the KGB intelligence service for years and was director of its successor organization FSB.
Gudkov: These are very convenient clichés that Putin uses. With the accession of the Baltic and Eastern European countries to the EU and NATO, he intensified his rhetoric against the defense alliance. The Kremlin also portrayed the mass protests in Georgia and Ukraine, the so-called color revolutions, as a hidden expansion: an export of American and Western influence, with the aim of ousting Russia from these countries. That is why the Russian leadership declared the Baltic states, Georgia and Ukraine to be its first enemies.
SPIEGEL: Because they did not make the right choicefrom Putin's point of view?
Gudkov: Yes, they were portrayed as traitors and Russophobic. Since Putin's speech at the Munich Security Conference in 2007, in which he sharply criticized NATO, its eastward expansion and its dealings with Russia, the Russians' distancing and alienation from Europe has steadily intensified. This attitude spread to the entire West.
"We hear sentences like: 'They have never liked us' or 'Everyone hates us, wants to humiliate and destroy us'."
SPIEGEL: The Russians follow Putin's narrative that their country is surrounded by enemies?
Gudkov: The feeling of a hostile environment has increased sharply with the war. Almost all Russians – 92 percent – are convinced that today's Russia faces enemies. This is the highest value we have recorded since 1994.
SPIEGEL: Where does this increase come from?
Gudkov: State propaganda serves inferiority complexes that have existed for a long time. The Russians have experienced failure. After the end of communism, your country did not develop into a modern state as quickly as other states of the former Soviet Union in Europe. This has caused a feeling of self-contempt, which is now channeled into hatred of the West. We hear sentences like: "They have never liked us" or "Everyone hates us, wants to humiliate and destroy us". The war in Ukraine increases this feeling of revenge, the demand for respect and victory over the West.
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Burning house after Russian attack on front line town of Druzhkivka, Donetsk region (Ukrainian army photo): Russians believe Ukraine is giving up
Photo: Press service of the 93rd Separate Mechanized Brigade / EPA
SPIEGEL: Does a victory in Ukraine depend mainly on whether Russia can continue to control the occupied territories?
Gudkov: The territories are all about symbolism. I doubt that 90 percent of those surveyed could show on a map where these areas are located at all. And when it comes to concrete points of a possible peace plan – such as the establishment of a demilitarized zone in the Donbass – there is great confusion. To such questions, we often hear simply: "I don't know."
SPIEGEL: Much will depend on how Putin can sell his alleged victory. What would a withdrawal of Russian troops from the Donbass mean for him?
Gudkov: A complete defeat. It would trigger a wave of resentment, the loss of his authority. If he does not manage to declare a victory, the conflicts within Russia's power elite would intensify. This would lead to a crisis that undermines the legitimacy of the regime. But there will only be major protests if one of the parties to the conflict that Putin criticizes does so publicly, giving voice to dissatisfaction.
SPIEGEL: And what if the conflict on today's front line in Ukraine were frozen?
Gudkov: The Russians would take this with displeasure, but ultimately accept it.
"Most Russians don't want to go into an internal confrontation with the leadership. This blocks the possibilities for protest."
SPIEGEL: Russia's war against Ukraine now lasts longer than the Soviet Union's fight against Hitler's Germany in World War II. How is society reacting to this?
Gudkov: The majority of people shield themselves from war. Half of the Russian population has stopped following the news about it. A protective reflex, they can't do anything anyway. They also don't want to talk about the war.
SPIEGEL: Aren't they also silent out of fear of repression by the authorities?
Gudkov: Most Russians do not want to go into an internal confrontation with the leadership. This means that the prerequisite for protests is missing. Many people prefer to cultivate a purely conformist attitude to life: "I live my life, none of this is my business, I don't want any problems." This attitude is more pronounced among young people.
SPIEGEL: What attitude do older Russians have?
Gudkov: They want Russia to fight to victory. These are mainly men of older age groups. We also see an increase in this more aggressive and militaristic mood among wealthier, better-educated people who believe in Russia's supremacy. In Moscow, this attitude is more pronounced than elsewhere. The capital with all its officials and authorities has become an imperialist city since the displacement of public protests from the streets in the first year of the war and the departure of war opponents.
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Russians on the Old Arbat in downtown Moscow: The majority of people shield themselves from the war
Photo: Dmitry Serebryakov / DER SPIEGEL
SPIEGEL: According to Western estimates, hundreds of thousands of Russians have already been killed and injured in the war. How high is the willingness to go to Ukraine as a contract soldier?
Gudkov: According to our surveys, it is decreasing. While in the first half of 2023 more than 50 percent of respondents supported the decision of a close relative, husband or brother to sign a contract with the army, this figure is now only 30 percent.
SPIEGEL: Do the Russians understand that the war effort costs many lives?
Gudkov: Yes, they see that he is like a meat grinder and that bonuses and high pay are not worth the loss of human life.
SPIEGEL: We are talking about monthly payments from about 2200 euros, more than double the – official – average monthly income.
Gudkov: The payments continue to act as an incentive in the poorer regions of the country to enlist as contract soldiers. There, people often earn only a few hundred euros. However, the increased inflation makes the pay of the army less attractive. In addition, the attitude of the people towards the contract soldiers is reserved, they see them as mercenaries who fight for money.
"People just want to believe that things will get better. Illusions are the most powerful means of leadership to hold on to power."
SPIEGEL: In one of your last surveys, 64 percent said that they felt balanced, and 15 percent even said they were in the best of moods. Is that the great repression you were talking about?
Gudkov: On the one hand. On the other hand, this is due to the fact that wages have risen in certain sectors as a result of government spending on the war, such as in the arms industry and in war-related companies. However, this effect ended in the summer. Inflation often eats up the growth in incomes. People are starting to save. They are refraining from making major purchases and hope that the situation will improve soon.
SPIEGEL: Unlikely, because Russia's economy is no longer growing: prices are rising, the state needs money, raising VAT, for example.
Gudkov: Desire and reality mix. People just want to believe that things will get better. Illusions are the most powerful means of leadership to hold on to power. That's why she constantly supports these hopes, according to the motto: "It's not all that bad, you can live."
SPIEGEL: Are people aware that the more difficult economic situation is related to the war?
Gudkov: Those who are against the war, of course, understand the context. These are younger people, but also poorer parts of the population who would like to see the state spend the money on better medicine or increasing pensions instead of on the war effort.
SPIEGEL: So Putin and his government don't have any major problems to expect for the time being?
Gudkov: No. What we are experiencing in the population is called Russian patience.
SPIEGEL: Nevertheless, the consequences of the war are more clearly felt in everyday life in Russia. Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries and military facilities have increased across the country. The authorities are blocking the mobile internet to make these attacks more difficult.
Gudkov: In the western areas closer to Ukraine and in the parts of the country where places have already been attacked, the fear of drone attacks is great. Overall, however, only about eight percent of the population say that these attacks are an issue for them. That's not very much. In addition, the tension often turns into indignation, the desire for revenge – and thus into support for the war.
SPIEGEL: What kind of idea do the Russians have of how long the war will last?
Gudkov: Most estimate that it will continue for at least a year or more. Amorality and cynicism will continue to grow in society.
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SPIEGEL correspondent Christina Hebel during an interview with Gudkov: "I will continue here as long as I can."
Photo: Dmitry Serebryakov / DER SPIEGEL
SPIEGEL: When do you think Putin could be willing to compromise after all?
Gudkov: It is a question of his resources, which sooner or later become scarcer and force him to make concessions. I don't think this will happen in the coming months. The problem is Europe's reaction. I have always said in conversations with scientists in the West that it comes too late and is clearly inadequate. That's not an accusation, I just find it sad.
SPIEGEL: Last year, you were branded a "foreign agent," and your Levada Center was already classified as such in 2016. How do you look forward to the coming months?
Gudkov: Of course, I lost all the court cases against this classification. I have to mark myself as a so-called foreign agent, for example with texts on the Internet. Since this year, I have to pay 30 percent tax on my income, and for "non-foreign agents" the income tax starts at 13 percent. Moscow University, where I worked, terminated my contract. I am therefore forbidden to give lectures. Others no longer link to my work, they must fear that they will get into trouble as a result.
SPIEGEL: That basically sounds like a ban on work.
Gudkov: Yes. This is a course that we have had to experience at the Levada Center for years. It is aimed at our slow suffocation and dissolution. But we work. And I will continue here as long as I can. I don't want to go abroad. You don't transplant an old tree. |
