THE BUBBLE IS IN THE DOLLAR, NOT THE METALS: Why Gold & Silver's Historic Gains Came with a Stable Dollar, Now the Inevitable Dollar Decline is Underway, & it will Turbocharge the Metals!
Gold is over $5,000 per ounce. Silver is over $110 per ounce. These are historic, generational milestones that have vindicated stackers and early investors, and are now beginning to attract the attention of the mainstream herd.
But there is an unspoken truth at the heart of this incredible bull market, a truth that is so profound and so powerful that it is almost impossible to comprehend: the overwhelming majority of these gains have been achieved with a relatively stable U.S. dollar.
Yes, the dollar has lost a staggering ~50% of its value against gold in the past year alone. But relative to other fiat currencies, as measured by the DXY index, the dollar has remained remarkably resilient.
It has been a slow, grinding decline, not a catastrophic collapse. The world has been in a state of managed debasement, with all central banks printing in unison, creating the illusion of stability.
But what happens when that illusion shatters? What happens when the dollar, the bedrock of the global financial system for the past 80+ years, finally begins to fall in earnest? What happens when the slow, grinding decline turns into a waterfall event?
This is the question that nobody is asking, but it is the only question that matters. Because the answer is that the historic gains we have seen in precious metals are not the end of the story.
They are the beginning. They are the prelude to the main event. The dollar’s inevitable decline is the turbocharger that is about to ignite, and when it does, it will send the price of gold and silver to levels that are currently unimaginable.
- You need to understand the dollar’s reserve status is eroding: the dollar’s share of global foreign currency reserves has plummeted from 65% in 2000 to just 40% today, the lowest level this century.
- You need to understand gold & silver’s gains came with a relatively stable dollar: The historic run to $5,000 gold and $110+ silver happened while the DXY dollar index didn’t plummet.
- You need to understand the dollar has already lost ~50% relative to gold in one year: while the DXY has been stable, the dollar has lost nearly half its value against real money.
- You need to understand de-dollarization is driven by sanctions, debt, and de-risking. They need to hedge a decaying system and get out from under the control of the U.S.
- You need to understand the bubble is in the dollar, not the metals, due to unlimited money printing.
- You need to understand VanEck’s models show $39,000 to $184,000 Gold: it shows that if gold were to re-monetize and back the global money supply that’s how high its price would need to rise.
- And you need to understand the turbocharger is about to engage gold and silver as the inevitable falling dollar acts as a multiplier on precious metals prices.
The bubble is in the dollar, not in the metals. Gold and silver’s historic gains have come with a relatively stable dollar, now the inevitable dollar decline is underway, and it will turbo-charge the metals!
Let’s Dig Into The Following:- The data that should terrify the dollar bulls is coming from institutions such as the IMF and Bloomberg. What’s happening is not a cyclical adjustment; it is a structural collapse happening in plain sight. To put this in perspective, at the turn of the century in 2000, the dollar commanded a 65% share. This represents a staggering 25% drop in 25 years, a decline that can only be described as “literally unprecedented” in the post-Bretton Woods era. Why the the critical detail that most analysts are missing is that the dollar is not losing ground to other fiat currencies, rather, it is losing immense ground to gold!
- The key drivers of the de-dollarization movement are actually self-inflicting wounds. The global exodus from the dollar is not a conspiracy or a random act of market volatility. It is a rational and predictable response to a series of self-inflicted wounds by the United States. For decades, the U.S. has abused the “exorbitant privilege” of having the world’s reserve currency, and the world apparently has finally had enough. Why countries no longer feel safe to finance the deficit of a nation that views them as economic adversaries and the world is seeking alternatives, not out of malice, but out of a rational desire for self-preservation and de-risking!
- There has been an ongoing illusion of a stable dollar and that has been one of the most common and dangerous misconceptions in the market today. This is a classic case of missing the forest for the trees. The DXY measures the dollar’s value against a basket of other fiat currencies, all of which are being debased at a similar rate. It is a measure of relative decline, not absolute strength. However, the purchasing power of the dollar, and indeed all fiat currencies, is being destroyed at an alarming rate. Why the bubble is not in the precious metals; the bubble is in the dollar and that bubble is popping!
- So, what happens when the dollar really does fall vs. other fiat currencies? This brings us to the main point: if gold and silver have been able to achieve these historic gains with a relatively stable dollar relatively speaking, what happens when the dollar inevitably begins to fall in earnest? Why the answer is a turbocharger effect that will multiply the gains we have already seen and send precious metals to levels that are currently incomprehensible!
- The truth is the sea change is already happening. The shift away from the dollar is not a future event; it is happening right now. The evidence is overwhelming and can be seen in the actions of central banks, the statements of world leaders, and the flow of capital around the globe. Again, the truth is, central banks are diversifying their reserves at an accelerating pace. Why gold is quietly reasserting its role as the ultimate reserve asset, not through any official decree, but through the simple and irreversible logic and force of the market!
- And now, with all the incredible price gains in gold and silver, the turbocharger is about to engage. What we are witnessing is not just another commodity cycle. It is likely the beginning of the end of the dollar-centric and hegemonic global monetary system that has governed the world for the past 80+ years. These are very different environments, apples and oranges if you will, and what can appear to be a bubble to the casual onlooker or generally uninformed, is likely just a seismic monetary system shift. Why through the incredible price movements we have seen in the precious metals, the dollar has remained relatively stable against other fiat currencies and believe it or not, this is the calm before the storm and is the moment of eerie silence before the turbocharger engages.
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