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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs

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Jan 27 4:00 PM EST

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From: Johnny Canuck	1/27/2026 8:39:11 PM
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This video by House of El analyzes Volkswagen's decision to completely cancel plans for a new manufacturing facility in the U.S., framing it as a symptom of failing trade policies and increasing geopolitical instability. The Volkswagen Cancellation Direct Financial Impact: Volkswagen (VW) cancelled its planned Audi expansion after reporting that U.S. tariffs cost the company €2.1 billion ($2.5 billion) in the first nine months of 2025 [ 00:08]. Failed Strategy: While the Trump administration's narrative is that tariffs force foreign companies to build in America, VW's CEO, Oliver Blume, stated that the tariffs have instead eliminated the economic logic for such investments [ 02:18]. Capital Drain: The 27.5% total tariff burden acts as a cash drain, making it impossible for the company to fund additional large-scale investments in the U.S. [ 02:41]. Broader Economic Trends German Investment Collapse: German investment in the U.S. dropped 45% year-over-year in 2025 [ 03:16]. Geopolitical Realignment: For the first time, China is poised to replace the U.S. as Germany's most important trading partner, with trade reaching €231 billion in the first 11 months of 2025 [ 06:12]. Policy Risk Premium: The speaker argues that "policy volatility"—the unpredictability of trade rules—kills long-term deals more effectively than high costs because companies cannot model 20–30 year payback horizons [ 04:16]. Strategic Implications for the U.S. Job and Revenue Loss: The cancellation means thousands of American jobs and significant tax revenue for states like South Carolina and Tennessee will not materialize [ 07:57]. Loss of Influence: The speaker suggests this marks the fracturing of the 75-year transatlantic economic partnership, as German firms "de-risk" their exposure to the U.S. market [ 06:29]. Irreversibility: Even if tariffs were removed today, the trust in U.S. policy stability has been broken, a lesson that takes decades of reliability to unlearn [ 09:11]. Future Predictions Pivot to Asia: Germany and other European nations will accelerate their shift toward more stable, predictable markets like China and India [ 09:34]. More Cancellations: The speaker predicts at least three more major factory cancellations from international industrial companies before the end of 2026 [ 11:12]. Video URL: youtube.com Volkswagen CANCELS USA Factory - Trump's Chaos Killed 20-Year Investment House of El · 105K views

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