ASML’s record orders smash estimates as Shrink n Stack spurs demand
ASML’s record orders smash estimates as AI spurs demand
ASML’s record orders smash estimates as AI spurs demand
Story by Sarah Jacob • 1h
(Bloomberg) -- ASML Holding NV’s orders in the fourth quarter far exceeded analysts’ expectations, as the rapid development of artificial intelligence infrastructure boosted demand for its cutting-edge chip-making machines.
Bookings in the fourth quarter were a record €13.2 billion ($15.8 billion), driven by demand for its most sophisticated equipment, the Veldhoven, Netherlands-based company said in a statement on Wednesday. That compares with an average analyst estimate of €6.85 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
ASML is the only producer of cutting-edge lithography machines that are needed to make advanced semiconductors, and counts all the leading chip manufacturers as customers, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. and Intel Corp. Its machinery is integral to producing the Nvidia Corp. AI accelerators that are the backbone for training and running AI models in data centers. The Dutch company’s bookings are one signal of chipmakers’ confidence in future AI demand.
The AI boom has continued into 2026, defying concerns about over-investment and helping push ASML’s market value over $500 billion this month. Meta Platforms Inc. and Microsoft Corp. are among the companies that are pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into building data centers, driving chipmakers to increase capacity and in turn stoking demand for ASML’s products. TSMC said this month it anticipates capital spending of more than $52 billion in 2026, much of which will be toward advanced manufacturing techniques.
ASML shares rose 8.7% in early trading on Tradegate compared to Tuesday’s close in Amsterdam. They have gained 32% so far this year.
ASML Sales Have Grown For 13 Consecutive Years© Company filings, Bloomberg
More than half of last quarter’s bookings were for extreme ultraviolet, or EUV, lithography machines, totaling €7.4 billion, ASML said.
“In the last months, many of our customers have shared a notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation, primarily based on more robust expectations of the sustainability of AI-related demand,” Chief Executive Officer Christophe Fouquet said in the statement. “This is reflected in a marked step-up in their medium-term capacity plans and in our record order intake.”
Total net sales were €32.7 billion in 2025. Revenue is seen at between €34 billion and €39 billion this year, higher than previous guidance.
What Bloomberg Intelligence Says
ASML could achieve the top of its just-announced €34-€39 billion sales goal in 2026, based on its strong orders in 4Q25 and order backlog for chipmaking-tool systems of €38.8 billion. TSMC’s strong capex plan in 2026 will contribute to ASML’s sales growth, as will robust capex among DRAM suppliers such as SK Hynix, Samsung and Micron. — BI analysts Masahiro Wakasugi and Takumi Okano
Last week, Nvidia’s Chief Executive Jensen Huang called the rush to build data centers that can power AI models the “largest infrastructure build out in human history.” There is a need for “ trillions of dollars” of additional investment in coming years, Huang said at World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos.
China remained ASML’s biggest market in the fourth quarter, accounting for 36% of net system sales. The Chinese market is expectedd to fall to about 20% of revenue going forward, Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said in a call with reporters.
China Remained ASML's Biggest Market in The Quarter | Net system sales breakdown by region© ASML filings
ASML has never been able to sell its EUV lithography machines to China due to US-led restrictions aimed at curbing the Asian nation’s progress in the semiconductor sector. It’s also restricted from selling its most advanced deep ultraviolet, or DUV, tools to the country. The machines it ships to China are eight generations behind most sophisticated model. Still, Chinese chipmakers have been buying up older equipment to make mature chips.
ASML won’t report bookings in future quarterly reports because the company argues the metric doesn’t accurately capture business momentum. The company said it would streamline its tech and IT organizations, signaling job cuts.
“We are doing great, and we are very happy with that, but even a great company needs to improve,” Fouquet said in an interview with Bloomberg TV, adding that the company wanted to be more “agile.” |
