Hynix & Samsung CCs "validated a multi-year, high-intensity EUV + ArFi cycle"
Me:
Can you summarize what Hynix & Samsung CCs mean for ASML tool fleet?
Copilot:
You can read the Hynix and Samsung calls a dozen different ways, but for ASML’s tool fleet, they boil down to one clear message:
Both Korean giants just validated a multi-year, high-intensity EUV + ArFi cycle — and they’re pulling demand forward, not pushing it out.
Below is the clean, operator-grade synthesis, grounded in the earnings-call signals and the Korea-based reporting. Citations included.
What SK Hynix signaled
1. Massive capex acceleration — explicitly tied to AI memory. Hynix said it will make a “considerable increase” in capex as AI workloads shift toward distributed architectures and high-performance memory. This is code for:
- More HBM capacity
- More EUV layers
- More wafer starts
- More reticle shots
- More ArFi for peripheral logic + 3D DRAM structures
2. High-NA is now in mass production at Hynix. Hynix is the first company on Earth to run High-NA EUV in production. This is a huge deal for ASML’s fleet because it:
- Validates the platform
- Forces Samsung and TSMC to match
- Pulls forward High-NA demand into 2026–2028
- Increases service + upgrade revenue on the existing EUV base
3. Hynix’s record profits ? more tool orders. They posted a 90% profit increase and a 66% revenue surge. Memory makers only spend aggressively when they’re confident in multi-year demand. This is the strongest green light ASML could get.
What Samsung signaled
1. Samsung is doubling down on High-NA. Samsung has already installed a High-NA tool in Korea and is adding another mass-production unit. This means:
- Samsung Foundry’s 2nm program is now fully committed to EUV scaling
- Samsung Memory is preparing for sub-10nm DRAM with more EUV layers
- Samsung is matching Hynix’s HBM roadmap with its own EUV-heavy flow
2. Samsung + ASML joint R&D campus = long-term fleet lock-in. The new Hwaseong ASML campus supports:
- EUV maintenance
- DUV support
- High-NA R&D
- 1,500 ASML staff on-site by 2025
This is not a “service center.” It’s a permanent ASML beachhead inside Samsung’s roadmap.
3. Samsung’s foundry ambitions require more EUV than ever. Samsung explicitly tied High-NA to improving yield and performance at 2nm. That means:
- More EUV layers
- More overlay tightening
- More metrology + inspection
- More uptime requirements ? more service contracts
Combined Meaning for ASML’s Tool Fleet
1. EUV demand is accelerating, not plateauing.
Both companies are expanding EUV-intensive nodes (HBM, 2nm logic, sub-10nm DRAM). This directly supports ASML’s record €13.2B bookings.
2. High-NA is now a competitive weapon.
Hynix is first in production. Samsung is adding more units. Intel already committed. TSMC must follow. This locks in a multi-year High-NA fleet expansion cycle.
3. DUV (ArFi) remains structurally elevated.
HBM, 3D DRAM, and logic periphery all require heavy ArFi usage. Korean memory makers expanding HBM = DUV stays hot.
4. Service, upgrades, and field support explode.
The Hwaseong campus is a tell: ASML is embedding itself inside Korean fabs for decades. This drives:
- Recurring revenue
- Higher uptime expectations
- More field upgrades
- More metrology integration
5. Pull-forward effect: 2026–2028 demand is now earlier.
Hynix and Samsung’s tone matches ASML’s own statement that customers have a “notably more positive assessment” of medium-term demand.
This is the Shrink-n-Stack era you’ve been calling: More layers ? more EUV ? more DUV ? more tools ? more service.
Bottom Line (ASML-centric)
The Korean calls confirm a multi-year, high-intensity lithography cycle driven by HBM, 2nm logic, and High-NA adoption. For ASML, this means:
- Bigger EUV fleet
- Earlier High-NA ramp
- Sustained ArFi demand
- Higher service revenue
- More embedded support infrastructure
- Pull-forward of 2026–2028 orders into 2025–2026
This is exactly the Shrink-n-Stack thesis playing out in real time.
If you want, I can turn this into an SI-friendly ASCII block you can Snip/Paint/Post. |
