Discrepancies in latest earnings call:
1. The “8 to 10 cities” ghost: - What they said in Q3 (Oct 2025): Elon explicitly said: “We do expect to be operating robotaxi in I think about 8 to 10 metro areas by the end of the year [2025].” He listed Nevada, Florida, and Arizona specifically. - What they said today (Jan 2026): The headline is all about Austin. “Austin Robotaxis No Longer Followed by Chase Cars.” - Where are the other 7-9 cities? If they were live in 10 cities, they would be screaming it from the rooftops. Instead, they are celebrating removing chase cars in one city. They quietly missed the broad rollout target Elon sold in October.
2. The “Expand” vs. “Kill” pivot - What they said in Q3: Elon: “It makes sense to expand production as fast as we reasonably can.” The vibe was pure growth. - What they said today: “Will end Model S and Model X programs.” - In October, it was “expand production.” Three months later, it’s “kill the flagships.” They aren’t expanding auto capacity; they are swapping it. They are gutting the lines that built the brand to make space for a robot that doesn’t generate revenue yet. That is not expansion; that is high-stakes renovation.
3. The cash flow 180 - What they said in Q3: Cfo Vaibhav Taneja bragged about “Record free cash flow” ($4B) and a fortress balance sheet ($41B cash). - What they said today: CFO: “Co might look at funding capex through more debt.” - How do you go from “record free cash flow” to “we might need a credit card” in 90 days? The $20B+ capex bill for 2026 is terrifying them. They are preparing the market for dilution or debt, despite “cash rich” narrative of Q3
4. The xAI “partnership” - What they said in Q3: Elon described xAI as a separate entity: “They’re really coming at the problem from very different angles… some of its complementary.” - What they said today: “Tesla to invest $2 billion in Elon Musk’s xAI.” - In Q3, it was a “complementary” separate company. Now, Tesla is acting like a piggy bank for Elon’s other ventures. This wasn’t on the roadmap in October. It’s a $2B surprise gift to the CEO. The Q3 call was a “victory lap” about current execution. The Q4 report is a “wartime pivot.” They missed the robotic geography targets, they are killing the OG cars, and they are preparing to leverage up the balance sheet to pay for it all. |
