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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting
QCOM 138.87+1.1%Feb 9 3:59 PM EST

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To: matherandlowell who wrote (197623)2/7/2026 2:08:57 AM
From: cold_snowman15 Recommendations

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I'm getting very tired of Qualcomm winning the litigation battles and losing the wars.

1. Apples litigation. It almost killed Qualcomm. Qualcomm had to make major strategic adjustments e.g. abandon their CPU and data center development. Apple, one of their biggest customer is using their incredible wealth to design out Qualcomm because Apple leadership hates Qualcomm's guts. But yeah they won the litigation and ever since we talk about the drag Apple is on Qualcomm's stock price.

2. They lost a lot of regulator goodwill in pretty much every market they are active. They had to pay enormous amounts of money to settle and were forced into a cap they charge per phone. Considering the price increases of cell phones on the last 5 to 10 years. That's a lot of money.

3. While they won the ARM litigation, they really lost the battle for the data center. Imagine a counter factual where Qualcomm made a deal with Arm when they bought Nuvia rather than doing an end run on Arm by trying to leverage their existing architecture license. They would have had a great server core at a time when the data center expansion exploded. What did they get instead? A better CPU for the mobile space (defensive move to shore up their mobile business and directly related to 1) and potentially a server CPU many years later when manny of the hyper scalers have their own architectures .

4. Licencing negotiations today are a lot more difficult then they used to be because Qualcomm lost most of their leverage. There is no way Qualcomm can squeeze Samsung during licensing negotiations like Interdigital can. IP licensing income from car manufacturers is relative small because Qualcomm doesn't want to piss them off while it fights for their business.

The 1990 and 2000 are long over when Qualcomm used QTL to their advantage. Today Qualcomm's stock usually tanks every time Qualcomm's name is mentioned in any litigation which happens regularly.

I played around with Opus 4.6 Extended Thinking and its estimate for QTL when sold to Private Equity came to a value for that business in the range of $28B to $40B . This is based on the fact that there is an established cash flow for the next few years and a PE shop could realize an upside by further squeezing the licensees.

Qualcomm could finally focus on making and selling the best chips and let the lawyers charge hours against a PE shop.

I hope the next CEO is going that direction and you can be sure the stock price would pop the day Qualcomm announces the deal.

End rant.
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